The Sacramento Kings are home after a day in Los Angeles paying respects to Anthony Davis for finally besting Domantas Sabonis, and won’t have much time to fret or stew on the abomination that was the first four or so minutes of the fourth quarter of that whole affair. It’s done, it’s over with and the Portland Trail Blazers are in town – young, hungry and ready to prove that their preseason victory meant something more than just two plus hours of converting oxygen into carbon dioxide for ad revenue. After getting blown out by 36 points in their opening game against Buddy Hield in one of his annual 10 games of Sixth Man of the Year contention (oh, and the rest of the nameless Warriors, of course), the Blazers came back strong against the Pelicans, requiring buzzer beating heroics by Brandon Ingram to wrest a win out of their hands, only for the Blazers to them blow them out the next night. The Kings will get got if they aren’t ready to scrap! So, without further ado…
Let’s talk Kings basketball.
When: Monday, October 27th, 7:00 PM PST
Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento CA
TV: NBCSCA – Mark Jones (play-by-play)
Radio: Sactown Sports 1140 AM
For Your Consideration
Granting Wishes: The Lakers game on Saturday night was a mess. I’m not going to spend a ton of time on it, but, obviously the Kings are NOT a completed project two games in. Getting down by fifteen early wasn’t ideal, but seeing how fast the Kings could turn it on when the time came was, at times, pretty thrilling. Through these first couple of games, the Kings are seventh in the NBA in steals, averaging nine and a half per contest, seventh in the NBA in deflections and are leading the league in contested three point shots. All of this while also fouling the eighth least in the league. They’re getting after it. On the other end of the court, they’re top ten in assists while also turning the ball over the just 11.5 times per game, good for 4th overall. The stats match the eye test, at least my version of it. The basketball, though a little tilted at times as players find their spots, is good. Until, it isn’t. After talking about sorting out the big runs they gave up to Minny, Sacramento allowed LA, and mostly LeBron James at that, to go on an incredible 21-0 run, with coach Mike Brown waiting far, far too long to burn a timeout. I know he explained it later as wanting to have some in the holster for late game situations or whatever, but the Lakers nearly put the game entirely out of reach before Brown called one. It’s clear to see that Brown means it when he says he’s uncomfortable with his rotations. Between the high minutes for starters these first two games, random additions like the Doug McDermott minutes in Game 1 or the subtraction completely of Keon Ellis in Game 2 – Brown’s going through as much or more than the players are, and is just as much to blame for why the Kings are currently oh-fer through the first two games. Hey, remember their emphasis on offensive rebounding and this new scheme they were hyping up in preseason to help generate more opportunities? The Kings are last in the league in offensive rebounding. Heck they’re last in the league in total rebounds per game. It is still just two games into the season. There is very little to be learned about the arc of this season pouring over these first two games. All I know for now is, they’ve got the juice, they just tend to puncture a hole in the box while trying to retrieve it.
As for this upcoming game against the Blazers: I swear it should be too early to call out trap games, but this feels like a trap game. Yes, the Blazers are not expected to be very good this season, but that doesn’t mean that they’re bad yet. First off, they’re playing their vets. Scoot is coming off the bench. Donovan Clingan is coming off the bench, Kris Murray is coming off the bench and Shaedon Sharpe is injured. Heavy minutes are being given to guys like Jerami Grant, a ten year guy, Anfernee Simons and Deandre Ayton, both six year guys. Deni Avdija has been in the league for four seasons. Toumani Camara only has one season under his belt, but he’s older than Deni is. This team might wind up at the bottom of the Western Conference by season’s end, but for now, they are showcasing the hell out of some guys and those guys want to win, want to appear to be winners and want their next contract (wherever that may be) to reflect those facts. I don’t really need to cite stats or observations past that. The Kings slept through their preseason game against these guys and got handled. If they do it again tonight, they will be 0-3 to start a season that begins with great (unfulfilled) promise.
The Small Stuff
Huerter vs. Keon, Part 2: I’m still of the mindset that Brown generally knows what he’s doing with Keon. Is it baffling to me that he couldn’t touch the floor even for a moment against the Lakers? Sure. Is it huffing the copium to say that the Laker game gave Huerter plenty of rope to hang himself, and helped justify both a move the bench and how valuable he could still be to the Kings in a supporting role? The -29 in a four point game tells me something has to change, but the 4/7 from deep and 5/9 overall tells me he can still be a valuable piece for the Kings. As Brown gets more comfortable, I believe he’ll end up settling with Keon starting, Huerter off the bench (or traded when the time comes) and all of us wondering why the game has to be played this way.
Assisted Living: De’Aaron Fox is averaging 10.5 assists through these first two games. Shooting 36.2% from the field and 19% from deep but, good lord, Mr. Fox is finding ways to be productive when the shot isn’t falling.
Prediction
Kings play pissed off but the Blazers hang tough. Somewhere around 8 minutes left in the game, something just clicks for the Kings and Fox and DeRozan go off thanks to the deft hands of Sabonis and Sacramento pulls away late.
Kings: 129, Blazers: 111
I think we’re needing a statement win tonight against someone they should be handily to stave off the negativity of their first two no-defense games.
Two games in and it is time to fire Brown, trade Fox, and put Keon’s number in the rafters even if he never plays in a game.
This team can score! Time to figure some sort of basic half court offense to slow the game down and maintain control. That is a much better alternative to running minutes off the clock while playing shit basketball and hoping the other team gets tired.
Portland can beat this team. Wake up boys.
Last night I watched The Comeback on Netflix about the 04 Red Sox. They started that season playing pretty mid baseball and didn’t get going until after the Nomar trade halfway through the season. I was thinking about The Kings a bit.
We absolutely need to beat the Blazers at home tonight though.
James Ham had a good thread breaking down how Huerter did during the -21 stretch. I think it really underscores the importance of not relying on single-game plus-minus.
https://x.com/James_HamNBA/status/1850412583632994447
I think it’s important to distinguish +/- from the individual and the team. As a stat it does not necessarily indicate how a player was on the floor, but it does indicate how the team did when said player was on the floor.
An example could be a very good 6th man who scores a ton of points, but often plays with a bad bench so the +/- may not be a good indicator of how the player is. Another could be the unfortunate role of Len. When he is in, Sabonis is out. The team is at their best when Sabonis is on the court, so Len often doesn’t have a very good +/-.
That being said, Huerter was playing the majority of his minutes with the starters and had a very bad +/-, whereas Monk had a very good +20. For me, that just boils down to the Kings were much better with Monk on the floor then they were with Huerter.
All in all, it’s not a useless stat but shed light on team performance.
It’s not a useless stat but it’s very close, and my main issue with the stat is that it’s often misused when we’re discussing players. I’m guilty of this myself, but I’m trying to get better. We say Monk was plus 20 and huerter was minus 29 so obviously Monk was good and Huerter was bad. But that isn’t what the numbers tells us at all. It tells us the Kings were better with Monk on the floor in that game but it does not tell us why. It is an incomplete picture. That’s why it’s a stat we shouldn’t be relying on.
If we read Ham’s thread, Huerter was directly responsible for -3 during a -21 opponent run, and could be possibly attributed an additional -3 or so based on helping/not helping/etc. We can debate if other players would have had a better impact during that run, but Huerter’s +/- doesn’t tell us a true reflection of his positive or negative impact on the game as a whole.
Bingo!
And more than that, it is not only influenced by who is on the floor at the same time with the player, but also who is on the floor from the opponent. So the static on this “stat” is enormous. That means that a player has only roughly about 10% direct influence on the plus/minus stat (stuff like usage, how often one is targeted on D, refs influence etc. muddle this some more, of course).
To use Adamsite’s example of the 6th man; if most of his minutes he leads the second unit against the opponents scrubs, it may improve his plus/minus. If he constantly has to replace the team’s best player against the opponent’s best unit, it may crater his plus/minus.
It’s mostly useless and misleading.
Keep hanging on.
Absolutely no excuses tonight. Don’t take Portland lightly and take care of business at home.
Let’s hope they can handle things easily and rest the starters before they jet off to Utah for tomorrow’s game. Traveling east to a different time zone on a SEGABABA should be outlawed.
They are good. It is not even five games in.
Back at home it’s Portland we face;
Somehow we must get in the race.
Got our offense in gear—
But need defense, it’s clear.
And play the WHOLE game at our pace!
+1 It’s been dark for so long!
We’ve been forsaken by the glory of its light.
My main issues with the 0-2 start (and the winless preseason) isn’t that they lost. It’s that they showed the same weaknesses that we saw last season, which weren’t addressed in the offseason and that will keep this team from going deep into the postseason.
I’m not really interested in regular season-wins (other than creating a good position for the play-offs). This team needs to win a play-off series, no excuses.
Having a relatively small, soft and unathletic team trying to win games on the back of its offense is not going to cut it, unless perhaps you have a generational scoring talent on the team. We haven’t.
A couple of wins against the Blazers and Jazz won’t change that.
Exactly. Been the same issues since Brown has been the coach. It’s not all on him, he has had relatively the same players. I would think that what the coaching staff has implemented would have taken hold in the players by year 3, but the first 2 games show the same lazy defense against 3pt shooters, being out hustled, and having scoring droughts that last too long for such a talented offensive team.
The team still switches almost every screen/pick on the perimeter, which was apparent with the Lakers when Lebron had his run. Domas isn’t good enough to defend Lebron on the perimeter, and the Lakers hunted that matchup multiple times. Maybe they need to look at the scheme and try something different.
Yeah, the defensive approach is puzzling. Although I have to say that Keegan isn’t very good (yet) at navigating screens, unlike guys as Keon and Davion.
Do you think the defense would be different if the roster was built for defense?
A defensive strategy and culture is the responsibility of Brown. Players that can do it are not his responsibility. He has three players that play defense. Fire Brown and the next coach has the same problem.
I just have one question. What happened to man-to-man defense? Is that not a thing anymore? Does anyone take pride in saying my man only had 4 points on 2-17 shooting?
3 questions.
Add: Below average three point shooting
Agreed, but I didn’t mention it because shooting percentages can fluctuate from season to season. Size and athleticism stays the same, if the roster stays the same. Which it basically did, or you could even argue that we got smaller.
DeRozan is smaller than Barnes. But Keon is bigger than Davion (assuming Keon plays). Bigger at the 2, smaller at the 3.
Neither Keon or Davion played. Our three was pushed to the four because we don’t have a four. Now we are small at the four and the three. The hole has been obvious for the last couple of years.
100% agree. I don’t give a shit about regular season success or styles that win in regular season but not post season.
This team has to win at least a series this year, and more than that, they have to look like they are closer to becoming a contender.
Not sure they did anything in off season to move toward that.
This is why I’ve been so anti-Kevin, Huerter, and other players, because he can’t be out they’re in the playoffs when it matters. I want playoff winning caliber, and style players
Hoping for a win, but I have an eerily bad feeling we’re going to witness a 4th quarter letdown that has us giving up a 15 point lead in a loss.
I don’t understand the rotational concerns, but I’m also not that smart. Of the top eight players in minutes last season, the only change is Barnes for DeRozan. Seems to me that Lyles can do what Vezenkov did last season, so that leaves Mitchell, who certainly isn’t the cause of any rotational issues.
The losses to start the season are disappointing but not shocking, especially when you consider that the TWolves are almost certainly a better team.
It seems to be a trend with Brown that he doesn’t figure out his rotations until the season is well underway. This time last year he was still heavily relying on Chris Duarte, Sasha was playing over 10 mpg, and JaVale was the primary backup center.
Two years ago at this time he was still starting KZ Okpala.
It’s baffling, really hard to understand or excuse. He knows the majority of the players very well, has to incorporate only one new starter and the roster was more or less set early in the ofsseason.
This dicking around at the start of the season and giving your best defender a DNP in the ultra-competitive West is exactly the way to fall into the play-in or worse.
Just my opinion and guess into the inner workings of Brown’s mind, which is much more basketball intelligent than any of us.
In the ultra competitive West against the top players, which Minnesota and LA have many. Brown knows we need to score an insane amount to win those games. His teams only strength is scoring. He played the game with the lineup that can do that. Keon is not stopping Minnesota as a whole, Lebron, or Anthony Davis. Brown went with the strength of the team, which is scoring. Successful teams play to their strengths.
Starting the experienced player over the rookie for the first three games the rookie ever played in is not out of the norm. That in no way defines anything uniquely bad or good about Brown.
Duarte and Sasha were obviously bad from any point of view. That was bad.
I watched the Blazers-Pelicans game from yesterday ahead of tonight’s game. Here are my thoughts, mostly on their players.
SAC should watch for Grant catch-and-shoots on the right wing. He was 6 of 10 in the first Pelicans game. He took five more there in the second game but made only one. He was also all over the midrange and paint scoring and getting to the line. I’d put Keegan on him or Simons.
Clingan is obviously tall and big but somewhat slow at this point for a modern big. I think Sabonis will be too quick for him in the post if they match up.
Scoot is strong, quick, and fast, and made some nice passes, but he shot 2 of 12 and 1 of 4 from three. Some good looks but no go. He came off the bench but got 30 minutes.
Simons will be … a problem. High arcing floater, step back threes, and other crafty moves will be hard to stop.
The eye test on Camara says he’s a good defender who can also splash some threes and is of “big wing” size. If the Blazers do decide to sell, I would love for the Kings to get him, but that’s almost certainly wishful thinking as they won’t trade Camara.
Their bigs (Ayton, Clingan, and especially Jabari Walker) look like they could make me grind my teeth about opponent offensive rebounds again.
The Blazers played some 1-2-2 zone early on, and it looked like they also played some triangle-and-2 as well. We could see some box-and-1 on Fox or DeMar or triangle-and-2 on both.
Thankfully, the Blazers will be on a back-to-back, but that probably won’t matter much this early in the season. I do not think they will be an easy win or a blowout. Could happen obv but I doubt it.
Preseason? Doesn’t matter! First two games of the season? Not relevant!! The season starts tonight! And if the Kings lose, then the season starts tomorrow against the Jazz! And they lose that, it doesn’t start until Friday in Atlanta!!
Just hover around eight through ten during the last two weeks to fight for the play in and call it another playoff season.
You are giving some crazy work. I like your ideology though. Thumbs up!
Sorry folks, it’s all my fault. I watched the last two games with the League Pass free trial. If I skip tonight, maybe they’ll win. I don’t even want to think how I’d feel tonight and tomorrow if the Blazers actually won. Watching that game in person last Christmas was rough enough.
Sounds like you should watch… to test this theory out
If anyone is watching tonight’s game checkout a kid for the Blazers by the name of Toumani Camara. I’ve been following him for quite some time. I really like the guy. IMO has a lot of potential. If Brown doen’t want to play Keon Ellis then there might be a trade there. Tell me what you think.
I do not understand Keon Ellis’ lack of minutes or Huerter starting again. Some of my main points I have said on here before:
It is obvious to me Keon Ellis provides more of what this teams needs than Huerter. Why is it so hard for Mike Brown to see?
Not just that but Keon getting 0 minutes? That doesn’t make sense.
The season has started off like a cluster fuck. Including this. I’m tired of the kings. Not figuring it out.
Maybe it’s speaks to an organization that still doesn’t have a shit together at the top.
Personally I will be watching the World Series.
O Beam where art thou
Why is MB not playing Keon wtf?! MB has been garbage this year.
I’m going to bring up something very dark that needs to be discussed at some point. It involves Hali and D.Fox. First off Fox is not that guy, never has been, never will be. If ur not a superstar within ur first 3-5 years or sooner there is very little chance you will be a top 5-10 MVP type player. Fox will never be that guy, nor will Saboner, and every franchise needs one. Betting on Fox cost us Hali and Fox also stopped Vlade from drafting Luka.
This franchise never rebuilt the full or proper way so you get these half ass results. A team that can make the playoffs but will probably never get out of second round. Hali is a top 10 player and younger than Sabonis and Fox. Should’ve kept him and built around him, now you pay the price.
Sorry someone had to say it, we officially lost the trade, Sabonis just isn’t good enough and never will be, nor will Fox. Indiana will take off and Hali will lead them there, a true franchise cornerstone.
*groans whilst lowering into chair*
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