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Kings vs Heat Preview: All Eyes on Florida

It's Election Day Eve, and the boys in purple will have to choose which version of the Kings are coming to play tonight!
By | 32 Comments | Nov 4, 2024

Jan 31, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Sacramento Kings forward Domantas Sabonis (10) controls the basketball against the Miami Heat during the second quarter at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

After a humbling loss in OT to the short staffed and youthful Toronto Raptors, the Sacramento Kings are in Miami tonight, trying to go out and get a win before Miami nightlife can claim yet another victim. Can the Sacramento Kings respond to a third single digit loss in six games with a win? Can Mike Brown find a forward off the bench that can actually play basketball right now? Will De’Aaron Fox ever hit another three? Oh god, oh no. Is it freak-out time already????

Let’s talk Kings basketball.

When: Monday, November 4th, 5:15 PM PST
Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
TV: NBCSCA – Mark Jones (play-by-play)
RadioSactown Sports 1140 AM

For Your Consideration

Rigged to Lose: I’ve maintained to friends, family, clients that you can’t even begin to worry about the team till the ten game mark and really, the cause for real concern doesn’t set in till twenty, twenty five games. There’s too many factors to consider in those first ten games to get too worked up about stuff: new systems, new players, new focuses and players trying new things – like a brand new basketball, it needs time on the hardwood before things really start to break in and settle into what they’ll actually become for the season. 10 games you can start to see those habits fully forming, and another 10 or so they’re basically baking into who they’re going to be at a macro level. All that to say, if/when I spill over into the negative this early into the season, please don’t take this as anything other than staring into the oven and wondering why the muffins haven’t risen 5 minutes into the process. Fandom is irrational and the excitement of having a good team comes with the anxiety of what might hold them back.

The Kings really shouldn’t have lost that game in Toronto. In fact, they really shouldn’t have lost any of the games they’ve lost so far this season. And while it is frustrating, it’s also a testament to how good this team could be one the attention to details is paid in full. A big run here or there, a stupid foul, someone settling for a three instead of attacking at the right time, and this team could legitimately be 6-0 to start the season and not at .500. I’ll take .500 with a new ball-dominant starter added to the mix, but the insecurity built into being a Kings fans screams out for a team that just handles their business from minute one. Nine whole points from being the toast of the NBA and quieting a lot of off-season narratives – woof.

So what insecurities are we dealing with the night of the seventh game? Mike Brown having no trust in his bench, leading to insane minutes for his starters this early in the season – bad. The bench being absolutely shit with Monk and Keon being the only two real playable guys on it – not fun. Fox’s fingers being shot for the season – could be better. The inability of the Kings to find any playable wings thus leading to an over-reliance on Keegan Murray three years into his career – very frustrating. I have no answers for these, no rant to include either at this stage. But looking into the oven window and seeing no rise from my baked goods five minutes in is giving me a bit of a twitch in my eye, especially considering how undercooked last year’s ended up being.

Okay on to the game tonight: it’s the Miami Heat. Rarely is a team so consistently consistent that the quality of the team can just be lightly touched on and everyone understands. They’re a good basketball team. They play at the third slowest pace in the league, they turn the ball over the fifth least and they’re top ten in three point percentage despite also being twelfth in attempts. On the defensive end, they’re a top ten rebounding team, ninth in defensive rating, hold opponents to the fifth fewest amount of points and foul the sixth least in the league. They go slow, they’re methodical and they pick you apart one mistake at a time. Jimmy Butler has started his season slow but is ready to go off at a moment’s notice. Tyler Herro remains a firestarter. Bam Adebayo is one of the best two-way centers in the league. The rest of the Heat’s roster is filled with guys ready to remind you why they’re in the league as soon as the Kings underestimate them. It’s every other Spoelstra led, post Big Three team: Unsexy, underrated and dangerous. Proceed with caution.

The Small Stuff

Election Day Off: So the NBA started building Election Day into their schedule a few years back as a day off for all NBA teams and outside of the wonky times that we get for games the day before, I think that it’s both fun to see essentially every team playing on the same night and a necessary policy change that is well past due for all American citizens to have a full day off to go vote. My one PSA of the year: if you’re reading this in the US and still have the ability and opportunity, please go vote. I’m not campaigning for a candidate here, just on the exercising of the privilege we have to make our voices heard, both locally and nationally. Okay, now back to basketball.

Pop Don’t Stop: This isn’t game related but a potentially scary moment for the San Antonio Spurs occurred over the weekend. While ESPN’s Shams Charania is reporting that Spurs coach Gregg Popovich “suffered a health issue before Saturday’s game and assistant Mitch Johnson is expected to be the interim head coach for indefinite period”, Matthew Tynan, who covers the Spurs in San Antonio is saying “he was under the weather about 2 hours prior to tip on Saturday, and he was replaced on the bench by Mitch Johnson.” and later anecdotally saying that “the team didn’t seem overly concerned when they let us know Pop wasn’t feeling well Saturday evening.” If this is just a head cold for Pop, than some rather irresponsible reporting there from Shams. But, in either case, Pops is a legend and an all-time great guy and this might be a subtle reminded that he’s only got so many years left as a 75 year old head coach and to appreciate it while he’s still out there.

Prediction

Fox goes 8-12 from deep, Trey Lyles finds his rhythm and Orlando Robinson comes in for the first time this season and shows why Miami is going to miss him this season. Jimmy Butler falls asleep midway through a jumpshot in the third quarter and the Heat lose him to naptime for the rest of the game. Random prediction here but the random role player we’re all worried about killing the Kings tonight won’t end up being Jaime Jaquez Jr., but will instead be Mr. Nikola “The Riddler” Jovic.

Kings: 116, Heat: 108

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DutchKingsFanInUK
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November 4, 2024 10:29 am

Really hope the Kings will do better in Miami than they did in Toronto.

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Hobby916
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November 4, 2024 4:36 pm

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Jman1949
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November 4, 2024 10:40 am

This road trip now ends with the Heat—
For us, never easy to beat.
Over Spoelstra’s program—
Against Butler and Bam—
Let’s send them down to defeat!

Jman1949
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November 4, 2024 10:42 am
Reply to  Jman1949

+1 Beat the Heat!

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Klam
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Nostradumbass 18
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November 4, 2024 10:42 am

We always seem to have trouble playing in South Beach. Gotta win today if the Kings want to get out of here with a 3-1 road trip.

Also, kinda weird that the start time is 8:15pm Miami time.

Greg
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November 4, 2024 10:59 am
Reply to  Klam

Since the league is having every team play today, they’ve staggered the start times so a game is starting every 15 minutes.

Klam
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November 4, 2024 11:20 am
Reply to  Greg

Ah, I see. That makes sense since there are no games tomorrow.

Hobby916
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November 4, 2024 10:49 am

I don’t look at this season as being “5 minutes in to the process”. Many of the core players (fox, Monk, Huerter, Murray, Sabonis, Lyles, Ellis, and Len) have been in the system since Brown was named coach. It is 2 years and 6 games in to the process, and many of the same issues are present.

On to the Heat:
Kings will need to be focused to win this game. None of the mental errors, bad turnovers, missed defensive assignments, and lack of effort. Heat are always a tough out, especially in Miami.

Convoy
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November 4, 2024 11:49 am

I’d love to have some rosy outlook about the Kings prospect of winning tonight, and having a team that can win in the first round of the playoffs, but I’m afraid the tint of my rose colored goggles has burnt out after 20 years of swimming through shit. 

They’ve got about a snowballs chance in (basketball) hell of winning against the Heat tonight , and also winning a playoff round if they continue with this roster. 

Outside of Ellis, there is absolutely no playoff caliber defense on this team. Boogie Ellis, Davion Mitchell’s closest replacement-type player, was waived by upper management.  (not sure of his status with Maccabi Tel Aviv yet). This shows they are not giving the coach and GM the ability to even field 10 NBA level players in a typical 1-10 slot of a lineup. 

The Kings bench of effective players ends after 3: Monk, K Ellis, and Lyles. Len, McDermott, McLaughlin, and Robinson are all players which played less than 10 minutes a game last year and have not proven to be recently significant effective players.

I’m praying I’m wrong about tonights outcome, but the evidence suggests otherwise. 

MMalone
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November 4, 2024 11:59 am
Reply to  Convoy

Vivek told you he got rid of Boogie and Monte wanted to keep him?

Convoy
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November 4, 2024 1:07 pm
Reply to  MMalone

There is no evidence, but if you look at the timing of the releasing of Vezenkov/Mitchell (June 27) and the signing (announced July 28, official September 16)/releasing (October 17) of Boogie Ellis, one can speculate.

MMalone
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November 4, 2024 3:59 pm
Reply to  Convoy

I am not seeing anything in those tea leaves. Hallucinogens are not my thing though.

MMalone
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November 4, 2024 12:01 pm

A big team that can play physical basketball and has a well established process on both sides of the ball vs. six guys that run fast and shoot the ball a whole bunch.

UpgradedToQuestionable
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November 4, 2024 1:14 pm

Hope Pop is doing well. He has been the model for NBA coaching success for decades and I believe has accumulated some amazing records – 1,388 wins and 2,209 games coached (that’s .628). He’s been coaching in the NBA for 28 seasons. He’s 75 years old.

His comparable coach is Erik Spoelstra. Coach Spo (also a three letter reference, like Pop) just turned 54 on November 1. He’s coached 1282 games and won 752 (.587).

Both systems coaches – they find a way to get the most out of their squads. It’s not unusual for a noteworthy player on San Antonio or Miami become “less than” on other squads. I think Steve Kerr is another who seems to have that ability.

As for Coach Mike Brown- well, let’s see if he can steady this squad, which has (according to stats) the most productive starting 5 into a force to be reckoned with. Wins against sub .500 squads (Atlanta, Portland, Utah) isn’t a good argument. Btw, the Heat are 3-2.

Personally, I think the Kings are close to figuring it out. Maybe that’s just what I wish and want and hope – I’ll be a believer in truth when results show up.

It’s a 3 Point League:
Greg’s covered the highlights on their 3 pointers: 14.4 3PM on 38.4 3PA (37.5% 3FG). The word on the Kings is that they don’t/can’t contain the 3. Expect more 3’s – attempts, makes and percentages. Hey, will-you-look-at-that alert: Alec Burks is at 72.7% 3FG on 2.7/3.7 per game, 8-11 in his 3 games thus far.

The Heat have 12 players averaging at least 10 min per game. Surprisingly, the highly heralded Summer League debut of former Indiana rookie Kel’el Ware has him at a team low 4.5 min/game. Their other rookie, Second round guard (#44) Pelle Larson of the ‘Zona Wildcats is at 10 min/game.

One of my favorite players to watch has been Jaime Jacquez, Jr. – he’s got a nice all around game that I enjoy. He seems to really embrace their weekend games in Mexico and that too brought a smile. He’s listed as a Guard, but at 6’6″ he’s a wing. He had a very nice outing last season when Miami downed the Kings at G1C.

Light That Beam! Go Kings!

JoeEnzyme
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November 4, 2024 1:39 pm

Isn’t a 2 guard a wing? I thought that the 2 and 3 are wings, the 4 and 5 are front court players, and the 1 is a 1. Please correct me if I’m wrong. LTFB!

RikSmits
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November 4, 2024 1:53 pm
Reply to  JoeEnzyme

I thought we were in the positionless basketball era?

JoeEnzyme
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November 4, 2024 1:56 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

Just missionary

SlamsonsRollerskates
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November 4, 2024 2:30 pm
Reply to  JoeEnzyme

Been seeing too much Iso…

UpgradedToQuestionable
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November 4, 2024 5:13 pm

Wings –
Paul McCartney/Linda McCartney (Band on the Run)
Buffalo Wild (do they really need to put an American Bison in their adverts?)
-Stop (those damn non-stop Jenga commercials)
Small Forward (UTQ glossary of terms only aka YMMV)

Last edited 3 months ago by UpgradedToQuestionable
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November 4, 2024 5:20 pm

PFs and Centers (4s and 5s) are Bigs
PGs and SGs (1s and 2s) are Guards
The “tweeners” are wings (SF or 3s, some two-threes). Is Kevin Huerter (6’7″ #198) a wing? Is Josh Hart (6’4″ #215) a wing?

It’s like nailing jello.

MMalone
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November 4, 2024 2:10 pm

Jaime is fun to watch. Very dynamic and smart player.

RikSmits
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November 4, 2024 2:20 pm
Reply to  MMalone

He’s out for tonight’s game

eddie41
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November 4, 2024 3:17 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

of all the players who played in Mexico City a couple days ago, the one who returns with food poisoning is Jaime.

MMalone
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November 4, 2024 3:53 pm
Reply to  eddie41

He might have gone full native experience and forgot he was from Irvine.

Last edited 3 months ago by MMalone
MMalone
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November 4, 2024 3:52 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

I was looking forward to watching him and Jimmy Butler IF the Kings go KaNGZ.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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November 4, 2024 3:04 pm

No Huerter again for tonight.

Hobby916
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November 4, 2024 3:17 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

McDermott, Colby Jones, Mason Jones get the start?

MMalone
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November 4, 2024 3:54 pm
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Down to five that can score and run fast.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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November 4, 2024 3:11 pm

OT: This is wild. Keegan may be the most important King at the moment. The team is a +14 with him on the court and -24 when he sits through the first 6 games. If he were to miss time, there is no one on the roster that can replace what he is providing.

https://x.com/will_zimmerle/status/1853568470627275055

Hobby916
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November 4, 2024 3:22 pm
Reply to  Adamsite

The future is Keegan.

discocricket
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November 4, 2024 4:10 pm
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What, you’re not comfortable with a McDermott/DeRozan/Huerter PF rotation? ????

Hobby916
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November 4, 2024 4:36 pm

This Sam Merrill kid can shoot. Why did the Kings let him go?

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