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Kings 115, Spurs 112: A huge win in the race for the 11th seed

De'Aaron Fox continues his impressive hot streak on the road in San Antonio.
By | 126 Comments | Mar 3, 2022

Mar 3, 2022; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Sacramento Kings guard De'Aaron Fox (5) shoots over San Antonio Spurs center Jakob Poeltl (25) during the first half at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

If you’re one of the remaining few holding out hope for a play-in run from the 2021-22 Sacramento Kings, Thursday nights matchup vs. the San Antonio Spurs is one you’ve got to have. And whether or not you believe this team can reach the postseason, we can say with certainty that the Kings are trying.

The rotation is short. The unproven youth (Ok, I’m really just talking about Neemias Queta) isn’t playing yet. De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are logging a ton of minutes. There is no tank here. Sacramento is playing like the games still matter.

So can the 23-41 Sacramento Kings defeat the 24-38 San Antonio Spurs on the road in a game they’re desperate to win? In a game where they didn’t arrive to San Antonio until a few hours before tipoff because of airplane trouble, on the 2nd night of a back-to-back? Let’s talk about it.

De’Aaron Fox is averaging 26.5 points, 5.8 assists, and 3.8 rebounds on 50% shooting from the field since the Domantas Sabonis acquisition, and he continued that encouraging hot streak tonight.

Fox looked like the best player on the floor for the majority of the game in San Antonio. He dropped 15 points and 8 assists on 6-9 shooting through 19 minutes in the first half alone, and was most responsible for the 54-51 lead the Kings carried into the half.

It was an entertaining half of basketball from this team that was made even more impressive by some unfortunate Domantas Sabonis foul trouble. The Kings did it without a fully operational Domas, and everything was still clicking in the first 24 minutes.

On the Spurs side, Lonnie Walker was a problem for the Kings’ defense all night. He couldn’t miss a shot in the first half, and his ridiculous shooting continued into the 3rd quarter where he led San Antonio back into this game. New roster, same old 3rd quarter issues for the Sacramento Kings.

The 13-point Kangz halftime lead vanished by the end of the 3rd quarter thanks to their frequently poor defense and a cooled-off offense.

The Spurs took their first lead of the game (99-97) with 5:08 remaining in the 4th quarter, and it was a really tight game from there. As someone who doesn’t really care about the outcome of these games at this stage of the season, I’m mostly rooting for some watchable basketball and progress from the players who will be here long-term.

Under different circumstances, a blown 3rd quarter lead would be a frustrating development, but I’ll take as many close crunch time minutes for the Fox & Sabonis tandem as I can get right now. We got that tonight, and the Kings delivered.

Fox was able to turn it back on after the 3rd quarter lull with some timely buckets, but the play of the game for me goes to Donte DiVincenzo. Was he the best King on the floor at any point tonight? Absolutely not. But for a player who had been struggling with his shot all year, he had one excellent offensive rebound late in the 4th to get the Kings another possession and eventual bucket. It created just enough separation that the Spurs never recovered from. Kings win 115-112.

Despite my apathy for the results, this was a good win. We hit on all the circumstances earlier, but on the road, 2nd night of a back-to-back, rough travel day – everything said loss here. But the Kings, led by a De’Aaron Fox that might be on the best statistical run of his career, got a nice win tonight.

Harrison Barnes deserves some praise here, too. With Sabonis in foul trouble all night (and eventually fouling out), Barnes picked up the offensive slack with an efficient 27 points in just 8 shots.

The Kings improve to 4-5 since the Domantas Sabonis trade, and the play-in run lives to technically exist another day.

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RobHessing
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March 3, 2022 9:03 pm

27 on 8, HB? Good Lord!

46A70A7C-6F43-488A-9745-26BEF0B6D95D.gif
Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 7:22 am
Reply to  RobHessing

I’ve looked it up after every game, but his TS% since the trade is 75.4%. (That includes the game Domas missed while the trade was being finalized.) Up from a season where’s he at 61.1% pre trade.

Nobody has benefitted more from Domas than HB. Nobody. That’s worth keeping in mind if you’re trading HB.

RobHessing
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March 4, 2022 8:32 am
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Yeah, averaging 19 pts. on 10 shots since the trade.

This is where it gets interesting if you’re trying to build with Fox and Sabs. Barnes is a floor spreader on offense. The fit on the defensive end is trickier, as the Kings really need more rim protection up front, which would relegate Barnes to guarding wings.

If you could land a PJ Washington for Holmes , move Barnes to the three and land a baseline-to-baseline shooting guard you might be on to something. I have no idea how the Kings get it all done this off-season, though.

If you trade Barnes and the pick in a deal involving (say) John Collins, you’ve improved, but incrementally, and you now still have some real issues at the two and three, with really no assets to address them.

Jack
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March 4, 2022 8:55 am
Reply to  RobHessing

I have a couple of ideas. They aren’t all mine as you will see. Trade Barnes plus you first pick to the Grizzlies forDillion Brooks and Brandon Clarke plus their 12 and 25/28 picks. Brooks is 6’7″ and as a scorer and SG could shoot over most shooting guards. He is a driver and can play defense and can be used as a SF. Brandon Clarke is an up and coming PF but you might want to use him in trades. I would next trade Holmes and either our 12th and 25/28 picks and Harkless or ? for OG Anunoby. If that doesn’t work then use your 2023 first pick and use the other picks this year. Anunoby is a beast on defense but can also score and rebound. Then I’m thinking we aquire Bobby Portis from free agency. You still have some lower trade chips in Metu Lamb, Holiday,Len and Jackson.l I also like Jonathan Issac but he is always on the disabled list.

BestHyperboleEver
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March 4, 2022 9:37 am
Reply to  Jack

I want to point out that my Memphis trade suggestion was heavily based on draft positioning.

Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 9:39 am

It’s idea season! Nothing wrong with throwing it out there!

murraytant
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March 4, 2022 3:30 pm
Reply to  Jack

it takes 2 teams to trade. Grizz have said for weeks that they want to keep their 2022 picks.
Raptors love OG.

Jack
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March 4, 2022 6:30 pm
Reply to  murraytant

They just might love Scottie Barnes more.

1951
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March 4, 2022 9:02 am
Reply to  RobHessing

Since we are using the SS’s for the good stats …

Since the trade, Fox is unlocked! Barnes is unlocked! Sabonis is great, double-double machine that distributes the ball!

Let’s go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kings record: 4-5, including a loss against a sub .500 play-in competitor, oh wait …

comment image

Last edited 2 years ago by 1951
RobHessing
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March 4, 2022 9:22 am
Reply to  1951

Quite frankly, 4-5 exceeds where I thought this team would be post-trade. I figured that introducing a player as unique as Sabonis would throw everything into worse mode. It has been fun to watch Sabonis and Fox learning each other’s games. Barnes is just so adaptable to the environment around him – it is kind of crazy that his level of flexibility is not more appreciated.

I’m not close to printing playoff tickets here, and I have my doubts that the front office can pull off what they’re attempting to do here. But I can sure appreciate the good stuff in real time while keeping it within the context of the bigger picture. Last night was fun. There are games coming up that will be less fun.

1951
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March 4, 2022 9:43 am
Reply to  RobHessing

I get it. I am enjoying the heck out of watching the games and Sabonis.

I just find all the use of SSS stats of Barnes, Fox and Sabonis by the local media to do a lot of chest beating amusing when they still can’t actually compete for the oh-so high bar of being the 10th seed in the West!

BestHyperboleEver
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March 4, 2022 9:52 am
Reply to  1951

I’m actually having a bit of trouble seeing this:

De’Aaron Fox that might be on the best statistical run of his career

But I guess it all depends on which stats and which end points you choose to use.

Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 10:09 am

But I guess it all depends on which stats and which end points you choose to use.

The last 10 games Fox’s 3pt% is at 33% (16-48), his FT% at 75% (47-62), his 2pt% is at 55% (86-154). 61 assists to 25 turnovers.

That’s improvement. Unlocked? Not quite. He’s come a ways with a ways to go. That last missed 3 Fox took was ugly. The other 2 he missed weren’t pretty either.

The real unlocking, IMO, comes this summer and in training camp under a head coach and FO that expect to be around long term.

Last edited 2 years ago by Kingsguru21
BestHyperboleEver
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March 4, 2022 10:36 am
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Surely, he’s had significantly better 10 game runs than that? I mean, that’s pretty much his season line from last year if he made one more shot each game instead of passing off for an assist.

RobHessing
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March 4, 2022 10:05 am
Reply to  1951

Wrong coach, roster that just turned over by 50% that is still full of holes, still a lot of work to be done. That’s the macro. The micro is that Sabs / Fox / Barnes are kind of ballin’ right now.

1951
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March 4, 2022 10:09 am
Reply to  RobHessing

We are in agreement.

I just find it a bit amusing that since Feb. 10th (trade deadline) somehow our fellow low-bar 10th seed chasers (Portland and Pels) have played above .500 ball after major roster shifts and brand new coach questions and the Kings have actually fallen further behind despite having it’s best three players balling out above their career norms.

It’s just so Kangz.

Last edited 2 years ago by 1951
Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 10:12 am
Reply to  1951

Neither of those teams wholesale changed the top of their roster. Or are working with an interim head coach. IMO you’re comparing apples to oranges to make your Kangz argument.

1951
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March 4, 2022 10:19 am
Reply to  Kingsguru21

So, you are saying the Kangz aren’t actually chasing the 10th seed despite repeatedly saying so and aren’t actually falling behind the Pels and Blazers?

I care little about apples and oranges because you are competing against all the other fruit in the West! I give no fucks about comparing present Kings performance against past Kings performance.

They compete against other teams, who are also team building, not themselves!

So yes, I find it amusing that the Kings refuse to tank, continue their quest to get that play-in against all odds, and continue to fall behind the competition on both sides of the coin! That is very Kangz!

Last edited 2 years ago by 1951
KingOfTheMonsters
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March 4, 2022 12:12 pm
Reply to  1951

Yeah, it was nice to see them win, but I’d rather the Spurs pulled out a victory. Hate to say it.

murraytant
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March 4, 2022 3:33 pm

yes. Totally dumb. There is really no chance at 10th slot.
All “wins” do now is lower draft slot. Bad.
Great win for SAS.

Kings-Rebuild
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March 4, 2022 1:06 pm
Reply to  1951

That’s an indication of a management team proceeding aimlessly with no direction or plan. Chose a lane and go, instead we keep watching cars blowing past us an we swerve from lane to lane.

RobHessing
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March 4, 2022 1:38 pm
Reply to  Kings-Rebuild

They chose a lane when they traded for Sabonis. I’m far from convinced that it was the right decision, though I am enjoying watching Sabonis play.

KingOfTheMonsters
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March 4, 2022 12:11 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Comparing apples to oranges WOULD BE the Kangz thing to do. So, maybe he’s on to something?

SelecaoKOJ
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March 4, 2022 2:21 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Really? DId you bother to look at all the changes the Pels made in acquiring Mccollum? The Pels are also without ZIon. Pels are far and away superior to the KIngs. Despite what you see in the record. Mccollum and the Pels are 4-0 since the trade. Now thats’ impact. Ingram absolutely destroyed Barnes 2 nights ago.

If you are a betting man Ingram, Zion, and Mccollum are a Top 5 team in the West. Sabonis, FOx, and Barnes. Will be lucky to sniff. 500

The Pels have not had an extra advantage of practices or extra time to work out chemistry. They are balling.

Kings look a little better on the court. Their record doesn’t reflect much improvement at this point. The Blazers also have far less talent than the Kings. Yet, they have a .500 record post ASB,

Last edited 2 years ago by SelecaoKOJ
Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 2:59 pm
Reply to  SelecaoKOJ

Mccollum and the Pels are 6-2 since the trade. 

As Rob has pointed out further below, they are 4-4 with McCollum on the court playing for the Pels. (5-4 since that trade was announced. Conversely, the Kings are 4-6 in the same timeframe.)

If you are a betting man Ingram, Zion, and Mccollum are a Top 5 team in the West. Sabonis, FOx, and Barnes. Will be lucky to sniff. 500

I’m a betting man. I’ll bet that Zion Williamson never plays 70 games in a season for the Pelicans. And I highly doubt that CJ McCollum moves the needle much for Williamson and his camp. The same camp that seem focused on getting him out of New Orleans and to the Knicks.

The Blazers also have far less talent than the Kings. Yet, they have a much better record post ASB,

So, the Blazers have gone 0-3 post ASB, and the Kings have gone 2-3 since the ASB. The Blazers have also lost all 3 games by very wide margins as well with the average loss being by 33 points. Maybe your definition of balling is different than mine, but losing by average of 33 over 3 games isn’t exactly successful in my view. The Kings by the same token have lost their 3 games by an average of 21 points (hardly good), and won their 2 games by 12 points on average.

It is true that the Blazers did win 4 in a row post trade of McCollum after losing that night of the trade. But that’s not what you said. It’s probably what you meant though.

murraytant
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March 4, 2022 3:40 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Agree with KG21. Not only are Pels not top 5 team with CJ + BI + Zion, Zion will never play more than 70 games for Pels and a good chance he never plays any other game for them. He is feuding with management. Pels, in disarray, started at 1-2 and then have improved since then. CJ helped but he is just part of a longer trend. It is interesting that Jones picked in second round, one slot above Kings, plays and Trey Murphy, picked in first does not. And Kira Lewis a first round pick just a couple of years ago is out.
Jones has been the difference maker. Luck and good scouting. I think Kings won the coin toss for first round pick order , so Pels got better order in second round and got Jones.

Gregoryl
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March 4, 2022 10:13 am
Reply to  1951

Ham made a good point abt why NO in particular has been so much better since the deadline than the Kings, and its b/c they basically took a better player in CJ and plugged him into their existing offense. The addition of Sabonis completely changed the Kings offensive strategy.

RobHessing
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March 4, 2022 10:14 am
Reply to  1951

Kings are 4-5, Blazers are 5-5. Pels have been a .500 team since their 1-12 start.

SelecaoKOJ
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March 4, 2022 2:25 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Pels are 4-0 since Mccollum joined the team

RobHessing
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March 4, 2022 2:32 pm
Reply to  SelecaoKOJ

They are 4-4 since McCollum joined the team.

Gregoryl
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March 4, 2022 3:20 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

The Kings are 24-0 this season

Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 9:36 am
Reply to  1951

Okay ’51, I get it. You want a top pick. But here’s what I don’t get. Why is the W so bad? Their odds in the lottery are reduced? By what? 1%? What are the chances the Kings even getting to 33 wins? Low. Have you seen the remaining schedule? @Dal, Den, @Utah, Chi, Mil, Bos, Phx, @Mia, NO, GSW, @LAC, @Phx. That’s 7 of your 8 home games remaining. Your easiest games are almost all on the road. NYK, @Ind, @Orl, @Hou (twice). And the road is rarely easy.

The Kings are 24-41 right now. Chances are, looking at PDX and SA’s schedules, they all end up with a minimum of 30 wins. I would not be surprised if all 3 miss the playin, and end up with 2 of them in a coin flip for lottery odds.

1951
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March 4, 2022 9:44 am
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Who said the W was so bad?

I am saying that all this “unlocking” based on SSS stats hasn’t translated to the team being any closer to reaching the really high bar of being the 10th seed!

Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 9:55 am
Reply to  1951

Fox has played better since the trades. Yes? And since when does local media really set the bar for actual commentary regarding the Kings? You talk about the playin being a low bar, the commentary from local media is an even lower bar. As sad as that is. Yet their narrative is what’s supposed to rue the day?

They are glorified cheerleaders for the franchise. Do I like that? No. But I mostly ignore it because I expect very little at this point.

If you’re expecting that useful and real thoughts to conne from the local media, perhaps you can give me the winning numbers to the Powerball, too. I could use a 100M US$!

1951
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March 4, 2022 10:00 am
Reply to  Kingsguru21

I have the winning numbers: They are “put all your money on the Kings not making the playoffs this season or next season.”

I hope I am really, really wrong, but barring major injuries to multiple competitors in the West (and some will happen, they always do), it’s going to be really tough sledding.

RikSmits
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March 4, 2022 10:16 am
Reply to  1951

What is “making the play-offs” now? One could argue that a full-fledged play-off team is a 6th seed or higher.

The ironic thing would be the Kings getting the 7th seed and then lose the play-in.

1951
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March 4, 2022 10:23 am
Reply to  RikSmits

To me, play-in is just play-in, and the play-offs don’t start until after the stupid play-in games.

I fully hope it goes away next year and we can just evaluate who are/will be the top 8 teams again.

Last edited 2 years ago by 1951
Kings-Rebuild
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March 4, 2022 1:11 pm
Reply to  1951

Yeah I think this playin BS was the NBA’s way to curb some tanking. I hate tanking but you have to proceed based on the actual rules so the Kings should be tanking now. More importantly they should be playing their young guys, Mitchell 30 plus minutes a night for sure then Queta, Metu, Jones and perhaps DD.

Gregoryl
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March 4, 2022 10:09 am
Reply to  Kingsguru21

D-Lo and KC analyze the Kings fairly. Ham, now that he’s out from under Vivek’s thumb at NBC, is really good. I like Aaron Bruski too. TKH, of course. Haven’t listened to the new guy at KHTK.

Last edited 2 years ago by Gregoryl
Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 11:33 am
Reply to  Gregoryl

D-Lo and KC analyze the Kings fairly. Ham, now that he’s out from under Vivek’s thumb at NBC, is really good. I like Aaron Bruski too. TKH, of course. Haven’t listened to the new guy at KHTK.

I was painting with a broad brush because, in part, there’s a limitation to what traditional media can really say. As Ham and Brenden Nunes have talked about, when you’re media and you’re in the locker room you have to look these players in their eyes and defend that position. Not everybody can.

I don’t blame local media necessarily, it’s a screwy complicated dynamic.

murraytant
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March 4, 2022 3:46 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

I say the win was bad. It is not the increase in lottery odds- it is the pick order. Kings tied at 6/7- coin flip determines final order. The difference between 6 and 7 could be great- like Wagner vs. Davion.
and I think Blazers and NYK continue to lose.

Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 9:09 am
Reply to  RobHessing

You’ve mentioned how narrow the path is to relevancy quite a bit. It’s also true that while Atlanta can bargain for Barnes, the problem there is if you’re Sac there’s little reason to come to the table with Barnes and your 8th pick (say). That just doesn’t do enough for you if you’re McNair and the Kings FO. I know Schlenk and the Hawks FO is star hunting (according to Amick). But, Collins likely won’t get that entirely by himself IMO.

Holmes is very movable because he has a baseline value as a 3rd big assuming he’s willing to embrace this. What I saw last night was a guy happy for his teammates, he doesn’t seem to be the real drag personally. But there’s so much on the line for these guys when they are on the court it’s understandable why he’s so frustrated with his play. He also doesn’t make much sense for Atlanta. So where do you go from there?

I think McNair has succeeded in raising the value of his assets on the margins and slightly with the core. But he also doesn’t have an incredibly overpaid middle of the roster with alot of value ranging from Trey Lyles (team option for 22-23 at 2.5M which essentially means he’s an expiring contract at draft time) as an add-on in a deal, Len (3.9M 1 year left), Harkless (4.6M 1 year left), Holiday (6.5M 1 year left) to give teams cap relief. Atlanta isn’t quite at tax hell, yet, but the moment a new deal for DeAndre Hunter kicks in (summer 2023) they will be. Sometimes it’s best to get ahead of these things.

I think any deal for Collins likely includes a 3rd team (Chicago?) and not Barnes. Chicago has mostly avoided the tax but acquiring Holmes for the next several years probably won’t put them there. Would Patrick Williams interest Atlanta?

I don’t know the answers to these things, of course. And I certainly get the skepticism that the Kings could pull a deal like this off. I do feel confident that if there’s a deal made, the Kings won’t get ripped off. Plus, there’s also your FA tool still available and wherever Terence Davis fits in the picture. Cautious optimism is my story snd I’m sticking with it Yogi!

jwalker1395
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March 4, 2022 11:18 am
Reply to  RobHessing

Not familiar with PJ Washington’s game but I see a lot of people here talk about him. I think a long, defensive-oriented forward that can knock down the three at a decent rate is exactly who needs to slide in between Barnes and Domas. Someone I like on paper but would obviously come with red flags is Jonathan Isaac. Not sure if anybody has strong opinions on him one way or the other. And if the Kings were to be so lucky, Jabari Smith and Chet Holmgren could look real good in that role, too.

Jack
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March 4, 2022 6:36 pm
Reply to  jwalker1395

I like Issac but is always on the disabled list. What about Bobby Portis? He can shoot the 3 rebounds really well and has a real good motor. He is a free agent and will probably demand an upgrade on what he is making now but would be a great stretch four who can shoot the three.

RAP87
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March 4, 2022 6:42 pm
Reply to  jwalker1395

If you think Bagley has missed a ton of games due to injury, you will surely love Jonathan Isaac!

If the Kings luckily vault in the top 3, I like your choice of Smith and Holmgren. Both would be perfect for the Kings. I don’t really like Banchero tbh. If we stay at the 6th-10th range, I would target in order: Griffin, Murray, Davis, Daniels.

Jack
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March 4, 2022 8:36 am
Reply to  Kingsguru21

I know. I hate to trade him but we need younger players to build on.

RikSmits
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March 3, 2022 9:13 pm

The Sacramento Special; a meaningless run once they’re out of contention, costing them a chance at a high lottery spot.

Kings fans, rejoice!

Kingsguru21
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March 3, 2022 9:20 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

I appreciated the execution at the end. It wasn’t perfect. I don’t think the playin is likely. But I enjoyed the game overall.

RikSmits
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March 3, 2022 10:06 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

I wouldn’t call it an execution. But the chances of a top 4 pick are on life support, yes.

Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 7:13 am
Reply to  RikSmits

It wasn’t bad, it just wasn’t as high a level as you would hope to see down the line. But I was never focused on where the Kings land in the lottery anyway.

WizsSox
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March 4, 2022 7:58 am
Reply to  RikSmits

The pearl clutching at this point about tanking for a pick seems odd to me. With flattened odds the difference in landing a top 4 pick in lottery if finishing 6-9 isn’t that dramatically different. Barring that luck, Kings will likely draft 6-10. Historically looking at drafts and win shares created there isn’t a ton of difference between drafting 6th or 9th.
Now if you want to contend they should have been Rockets style tanking all year, fine. But at this point since the deadline acquisitions, I don’t think there is much point worrying about wins here and there. Try to create a positive culture/ identity with Sabonis and move forward.

Last edited 2 years ago by WizsSox
RobHessing
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March 4, 2022 10:20 am
Reply to  WizsSox

Adding to this, we’re talking about a team that has been dropping 13 out of 20 for most of the season. This team is going to lose holistically – it does not need to try to lose. This team was not going to catch the bottom four, and I think that letting Sabs and Fox play together while kicking the tires on Barnes’ fit is greater than an extra ping pong ball or two. I’m sure not going to sweat the difference between having the 5th / 6th / 7th / 8th number of ping pong balls.

1951
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March 4, 2022 10:29 am
Reply to  RobHessing

Everything you are saying is reasonable.

Counterpoint: We are going to learn absolutely nothing from Fox/Sabonis/Barnes play time over the next 17 games that we don’t already know. We know they are all good and can play together.

RobHessing
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March 4, 2022 10:37 am
Reply to  1951

Respectfully disagree. At the time of the trade we had no idea how these three would work together. And at this point, we don’t know whether or not we have seen the top of the mountain, or whether this is an aberration caused in part by the lack of film and scouting on this permutation of Kings team. I think that them playing together outweighs the difference of picking 5th vs. 6th, 7th or 8th. And there is no guarantee that playing them less (or not at all) results in the 5th pick vs. the 6th pick, for example.

The Pacers are rolling out Hali (and Brogdon), the Spurs are still playing their core players. Only Dame, who has been out for months, is sidelined among this group of teams. I do not believe that it is an overall benefit to the path that the organization has chosen to purposely lose games at this point.

1951
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March 4, 2022 10:57 am
Reply to  RobHessing

I think that them playing together outweighs the difference of picking 5th vs. 6th, 7th or 8th.

Yep. We do disagree.

From a team-building standpoint the draft asset and the coach next year are the two most important pieces to the puzzle.

One spot different in the draft can have a huge impact on pre-draft trade value and on the quality of the prospects available.

But yes, of course there are no guarantees. We shall see.

WizsSox
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March 4, 2022 11:23 am
Reply to  1951

One spot different in the draft can have a huge impact on pre-draft trade value and on the quality of the prospects available

It could…just historically in that last half of the Top 10 range, it doesn’t typically.

WizsSox
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March 4, 2022 11:26 am
Reply to  RikSmits

Of course. That’s not what I’m talking about.

I’m talking about if you don’t luck out and get top 1-4. There isn’t a ton of data to support pick 6/7 is dramatically more valuable than 8/9. Yes there is a better chance of pulling Top 4 if you finish 6th than 9th, but with flattened odds, it’s just not as large a difference anymore.

Last edited 2 years ago by WizsSox
RobHessing
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March 4, 2022 11:32 am
Reply to  WizsSox

Yep. And what we’re talking about here is a 42% chance of landing in the top 4 (5th), vs. 37% (6th), vs. 32% (7th).

I’m biased – I’ve never been a believer in not trying to win games with your best and healthiest players. And when you get right down to it, none of the worst teams are shelving their marquee players at this point. As I noted elsewhere, Lillard is the only player of note, and he has been out since January.

WizsSox
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March 4, 2022 12:17 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

Thanks for looking up odds, couldn’t remember off top of head.

Generally I’m a stats based person by nature and have been pro tank for a damn long time. Every loss mattered and I was on tankathon religiously. But with the flattened odds and looking at the results of picks 6-11 or so the last 20 years, it just doesn’t seem to matter much when talking that specific range, which the Kings will likely fall into.

I guess in exchange for the extra 10-15% chance of a Top 4 pick, I can believe in the idea that building positive vibes and learning teammates games at the end of a season might have some carryover effect to next year…especially considering that you have major new pieces and are hoping to retain one of them in 2 years.

Last edited 2 years ago by WizsSox
Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 12:37 pm
Reply to  WizsSox

I guess in exchange for the extra 10-15% chance of a Top 4 pick, I can believe in the idea that building positive vibes at the end of a season might have some carryover affect to next year…especially considering that you have major new pieces and are hoping to retain one of them in 2 years.

You’re hoping to keep Domas around, and De’Aaron for that matter, and you’re hoping that Chet Holmgren or Jabari Smith Jr or Paolo Banchero will be the guy who automatically does that?

I’m not of the belief that’s the case, personally. Although I don’t see the Kings moving a top 3 pick in trade unless they get something magical in return either.

There’s a chance that any of those three players end up being better than Domas, and there’s a higher chance they won’t be.

WizsSox
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March 4, 2022 1:08 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Not sure, where you are coming from Guru or if I wasn’t clear before. That’s not what I am implying at all.

I’m saying that I am willing to sacrifice the 10-15% improved chance at a Top 4 pick by finishing 8/9 instead of 5/6. If that means playing your best players down the stretch and winning a couple more games than you would have by “actively” tanking, then so be it. Assuming that extra 10-15% chance doesn’t net you a Top 4 pick (likely), I don’t see a great difference drafting 6th or 9th.

Is there a possibility that letting Domas and Fox actually play the last 20 games and try to learn each others games has benefits to next season? I think possibly yes…at least worth the marginal sacrifice in the 10-15% difference in lottery odds from 6-9 or whatever.

I’m purely talking back half of Top 10 finishing positioning. If one wants to contend the Kings should have been massive sellers at deadline and full on tanked into top 3, then that’s a different discussion.

I’m under no illusions that a 19 year is likely to change the immediate 2 year trajectory of the Kings. Hence why I haven’t seen it as important to tank the last 20-30 games…given their current positioning and other teams positioning over the past several weeks.

Last edited 2 years ago by WizsSox
Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 2:31 pm
Reply to  WizsSox

Not sure, where you are coming from Guru or if I wasn’t clear before. That’s not what I am implying at all.

I was saying not even getting a top 3 pick guarantees you a chance at a star. A better chance, but not 100%. That’s why I’m not worried about lottery odds for a team that is likely to finish between 7-9 anyway. They’ll jump up or they won’t. Simple, this.

And you were perfectly clear about your point WS. Mine was simple: For all the handwringing over the Kings not getting better lottery odds, it really doesn’t matter much. It matters who is doing the picking of the player far more often than it does where you pick.

I certainly also think the value of giving De’Aaron and Domas time together on the court trumps whatever odds you get by losing a game to the Spurs here or the Knicks next Monday for that matter. What are the odds that the Kings end up over 30 wins at this point? The Spurs? Blazers?

What matters is the Kings finish out these games doing the very best they can every step of the way. And they still probably won’t top 30 wins anyway due to a variety of factors.

WizsSox
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March 4, 2022 3:33 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

We are on same page…our lines got crossed…or mine did : )

Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 4:31 pm
Reply to  WizsSox

Hey I’m just happy you’re back to posting here!

Kings-Rebuild
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March 4, 2022 1:17 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

You haven’t been watching OKC.

RobHessing
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March 4, 2022 1:27 pm
Reply to  Kings-Rebuild

Good example. SGA is their best player, and he is currently playing – back from injury when they could have shelved him for the season. Giddy and Dort are both recently injured, but they are not exactly the kinds of players that determine wins and losses, at least not yet.

OKC sold off, and that is a completely different conversation than benching healthy talent.

Yes, OKC is tanking, but they are not doing it by shelving top 50 talent. They have chosen to sell any/all assets for future assets. I would have liked to have seen the Kings do that (retaining Hali and maybe Mitchell), but that is not the path they chose.

Kings-Rebuild
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March 4, 2022 1:36 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

OKC is my second favorite team and I’ve seen almost everyone of their games this year. They have been shelving players all year. I guarantee you if winning this year was their primary objective the minutes played stat column would look much different. Also their win total would be a lot different. Also Dort in case you haven’t watched especially on defense certainly impacts the game significantly. Giddy is still evolving so not just yet I’d call him an impact player. I agree with you on what the Kings path should have been.

RobHessing
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March 4, 2022 1:52 pm
Reply to  Kings-Rebuild

So it is your take that the Thunder would be winning a lot more games had their big three of SGA, Dort and Giddey played more, even though they have collectively logged roughly 5000 minutes this year, or 1/3 of the roster’s entire minutes. Yeah, I’m just going to respectfully disagree with that one and move on.

Kings-Rebuild
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March 4, 2022 4:30 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

5000 sounds like a lot but its over 700 minutes less on average than other teams and even more for contending teams. You have to watch the games and the substitution patterns. Player development is their primary goal right now and they are very willing to sit players out on given nights because they prefer to play a lot of different guys for player development. Not even the OKC fans will tell you they are going all out to win and for those who watch the games know the substitution patterns are not indicative of a team placing winning as a high priority.

Kings-Rebuild
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March 4, 2022 1:16 pm
Reply to  1951

I agree but there’s a way to accomplish multiple objectives. Watch how OKC does it. If OKC went all out and had winning as their number one objective they’d end up close to 40 wins.

WizsSox
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March 4, 2022 1:40 pm
Reply to  Kings-Rebuild

In 47 games where SGA has played the Thunder are on a 28 game win pace…their team is bad (intentionally), for now at least.

MichaelMack
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March 4, 2022 11:09 am
Reply to  RobHessing

Well said Rob

Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 11:48 am
Reply to  RobHessing

Adding to this, we’re talking about a team that has been dropping 13 out of 20 for most of the season. This team is going to lose holistically – it does not need to try to lose. This team was not going to catch the bottom four, and I think that letting Sabs and Fox play together while kicking the tires on Barnes’ fit is greater than an extra ping pong ball or two. I’m sure not going to sweat the difference between having the 5th / 6th / 7th / 8th number of ping pong balls.

Ding ding ding!

Kings-Rebuild
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March 4, 2022 1:13 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

That’s all fine but Mitchell has to be playing as much as he can physically handle and Metu, Queta, and DD should be getting good looks. All these journeyman veterans should be getting minimal time.

RobHessing
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March 4, 2022 1:36 pm
Reply to  Kings-Rebuild

I would agree for the most part.

Holiday is under contract next season, so he should continue to get some burn. And they’re kicking the tires on DDV.

I think that Lamb is the only guy in the current rotation that should be getting far fewer minutes – Harkless has three straight DNPs, as does Len.

Mitchell is 5th on this team in minutes, and will likely be third by the end of the season, behind only Barnes and Fox. He’s 8th among rookies in minutes.

Metu has gotten plenty of burn this year – probably more than he deserves. I’d like to see more of Queta.

Gregoryl
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March 4, 2022 1:44 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

I am really not understanding any minutes that Lamb is getting. I wonder if it has something to do with bonuses or incentives that Gentry has to win games, b/c it can’t be b/c they seem him as part of the future?

RobHessing
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March 4, 2022 1:53 pm
Reply to  Gregoryl

Probably. Without a contract for next year he has no reason to be coaching for any other reason than this season.

Sacto_J
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March 4, 2022 2:19 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

How is it the guy with no pants is the consistent voice of reason…?

Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 2:31 pm
Reply to  Sacto_J

He’s able to air out his feelings more freely…..

/ducks

Brown.says.Good.or.Bad
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March 3, 2022 10:17 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Yes the game was good. At this point in the season I think that’s about all we can hope for

BigDrewbot
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March 3, 2022 9:42 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

How else do you raise hopes just enough to avoid having to make wholesale changes? We’re getting it together now so next year will be The Year!

andy_sims
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March 4, 2022 9:59 am
Reply to  BigDrewbot

From a roster perspective, what would you want these wholesale changes to look like?

cloudyeyes
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March 4, 2022 6:36 am
Reply to  RikSmits

The Kings always play hard the first and the final games of the season. It’s a Kangz tradition.

eddie41
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March 4, 2022 8:21 am
Reply to  RikSmits

it an exhibit to the Want-Ad for a new coach. Sabonis is good! Fox is not fat anymore! Come to California and be a hero for suffering fans whose tech addictions have erased their memories of good basketball!

murraytant
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March 4, 2022 3:49 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

meaningless.
Yes the flawed execution was nice to see but the result is a lower pick.

Kingsguru21
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March 3, 2022 9:18 pm

Kings 32 FTA. Spurs 16 FTA. Game. Set. Match. Outscored the Spurs by 19 points on the line alone. Some of that was at the end, of course. But they did execute enough plays to win the game. So that was good.

sonny
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March 4, 2022 12:51 am

Can’t the Kings just play for the play-out?
Kings need a better lottery spot!

cloudyeyes
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March 4, 2022 6:38 am
Reply to  sonny

I see what you did there. “Play-out” instead of “Play-in”

andy_sims
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March 4, 2022 11:50 am
Reply to  cloudyeyes

Your eyes really are cloudy, because we all saw it. It’s like a single-entendre.

DutchKingsFanInUK
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March 4, 2022 5:43 am

This had Kangz written all over it when they lost the lead in the fourth and Sabonis went to the bench with his fifth foul. Credit where credit is due, the Kings for once didn’t fall over like an Italian/Spanish/Portuguese football player and kept battling. For most teams that’s a given, but for this team…well, not so much. Small victories I guess.

AmateurNerd
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March 4, 2022 6:02 am

I suppose I have to respect the Kings’ approach. Trade the whole core for a bundle of picks do a full-blown tank-fueled rebuild? No, we’ll trade for an All-Star and try to win a few more that way. Give the good players “scheduled rest” and do a stealth tank? No, we’ll play them 30+ minutes every night and keep trying for that elusive 10th seed. Also, think about who the team chose to trade: Buddy and Bagley, the two most self-involved, difficult personalities on the team (at least publicly). The KANGZ have had a loser culture for a decade-plus now. Trading only for good players, shipping out the biggest whiners, and playing to win every night is a solid idea for a cure, I’ll give McNair that much. It’s a bold strategy, Cotton.

Jack
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March 4, 2022 6:55 am
Reply to  AmateurNerd

The bigthing for me is the Kings didn’t fold. Besides Fox, Sabonis and Barnes I thought the players who helped with this win were Jones, Donte and Lyles. I just don’t understand why Holiday is in there. If its for defense alright but he shot 12 no not 6 but 12 3’s and only made two. That’s not right. I I don’t understand Gentry’s rotations. Lyles started scored he first 4 points on drives and started to get comfortable out there and Gentry takes him out for Lamb. After a few minutes anyone who has coached knew it wasn’t Lamb’s night. Did Gentry put Lyle back in? No. Go figure. What about Jackson. Was drafted before Fox and just sits. There has to a reason he was drafted #4. Let’s at least give him a chance.

HongKongKingsFan
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March 4, 2022 8:57 am
Reply to  Jack

If the FO did not land DDV, then Jackson would probably get some playing time.

JJ can possibly give you 10-15 mins per game, but he is not under contract next year is a issue.

Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 9:17 am

DDV isn’t under contract next season either, HKKF. The difference is Jackson isn’t RFA like DDV.

Gregoryl
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March 4, 2022 9:43 am
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Right, and MUCH more likely that DDV will be part of this team moving forward v. Jackson.

Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 9:47 am
Reply to  Gregoryl

Tru, true. Still wouldn’t mind seeing Jackson. I’m just not a fan of these rotations by Gentry at all. Seeing Holiday shoot 12 3’s last night indicates that Gentry will stick with him. I like Holiday, but he’s a 15 MPG type. He’s very similar to Harkless IMO.

Last edited 2 years ago by Kingsguru21
Gregoryl
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March 4, 2022 10:17 am
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Yes, Holiday’s game last night was really bad

MichaelMack
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March 4, 2022 11:17 am
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Gentry does seem to lack creativity in his substitution patterns, such as letting Ingram cook all game with Harkless twiddling his thumbs on the bench (though I appreciated Fox wanting to take a crack at him).

For some reason I am a Jackson truther. I would appreciate him getting some minutes. He has had some nice stretches the past two seasons before getting buried on the bench again. The end of the Kings bench has been borderline unplayable for a few seasons, and now they have some athletic and interesting players in Damian Jones (who is making Holmes look pretty expendable), Metu, TD, Harkless, and being able to kick the tires on Lamb and JJ (both probably value signings next season).

Even Lyles at 2.7mil fills that Chilcutt/Songalia sized hole we have had on the roster for two decades.

Gregoryl
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March 4, 2022 12:58 pm
Reply to  MichaelMack

In regards to Alvin’s subs, my eyeball test tells me the team really struggles when Fox is in there w/o HB or Sabonis. Seems like Fox needs HB or Sabonis with him at all times to really flourish. Not sure if the data is out there, but that’s what I’m seeing.

RobHessing
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March 4, 2022 9:46 am
Reply to  Jack

There has to a reason he was drafted #4.

I’m going to say for the same reason that Marvin Bagley was drafted at #2? Or Thomas Robinson at #4?

There is also a reason why Jackson is now salary filler throw-in after almost five seasons in the NBA. Sometimes a pickle is just a pickle.

Jack
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March 4, 2022 11:25 am
Reply to  RobHessing

Give Jachson a chance. Maybe he would go from dill to kocher.

RobHessing
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March 4, 2022 11:34 am
Reply to  Jack

282 games and four teams into his career, I’m going to say that he is what he is.

If your team is dependent on the upside of Josh Jackson, you’re screwed.

Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 11:52 am
Reply to  RobHessing

282 games and four teams into his career, I’m going to say that he is what he is.

If your team is dependent on the upside of Josh Jackson, you’re screwed.

I’d really like to see what he’s got knowing it probably won’t work out. I don’t have high hopes, but I’m not eager to watch Justin Holiday shoot 2-12 from 3 ball land like he did last night. I realize these are not competing ideals perse, but I mean I have a higher hope for Josh Jackson than I do watching Holiday jack up that many shots from deep. Low bar, I acknowledge.

Jack
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March 4, 2022 6:41 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Thanks.

andy_sims
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March 4, 2022 11:53 am
Reply to  RobHessing

He had such a good rookie season, and then, just nothing. I don’t know his injury history, but he seems to have the physical tools to compete. May as well give him some run, and see if anything is there, and if not, let the losses pile up.

We are absolutely getting that #1 pick.

Sacto_J
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March 4, 2022 2:29 pm
Reply to  andy_sims

The issue with Jackson is between his ears. He’s not what I’d call a high IQ guy, basketball or otherwise…

Jack
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March 4, 2022 6:41 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

I only wanted to see what he could do. I know he is a really good athlete, and I didn’t say he was the answer.

DutchKingsFanInUK
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March 4, 2022 6:38 am

I know it’s still early, but here’s a little stat dump on the first nine games of Sabonis with the Kings. I had nothing better to do at work today. I compare these last nine games versus the 56 games before.

  • Over these nine games, the Kings went 4-5 with the average strength of schedule being 0.49.
  • Offensive Rating: 110.8 (15th in NBA) versus 109.1 (20th) in the 56 games before that time
  • Defensive Rating: 113.82 (16th in NBA) versus 114.4 (29th) before
  • Reb%: 49.2 (16th in NBA) versus 48.8 (25th) before
  • AST Ratio: 17.78 (17th in NBA) versus 17 (23rd) before
  • Pace: 102.56 possessions PG (5th) versus 99.82 (8th)

I’ll leave you guys to debate whether this is worthwhile information or this is too little data to start drawing conclusions. I feel like the Kings have improved since the trade deadline and these (early) stats seem to back that up. The only thing I know for sure is: they’re less frustrating (or more fun if you will) to watch.

Last edited 2 years ago by DutchKingsFanInUK
rockbottom
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March 4, 2022 7:31 am

Team is clearly better with Sabonis and Fox and Barnes are evidence ! Find 2 more quality players and there will be legit hope ! Those 2 are currently not on the roster !

Gregoryl
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March 4, 2022 8:43 am
Reply to  rockbottom

Holiday and Lyles in the starting lineup of a good team won’t cut it.

Jack
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March 4, 2022 11:29 am
Reply to  Gregoryl

I think Lyles would be a good backup PF for the Kings.

SelecaoKOJ
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March 4, 2022 2:26 pm
Reply to  rockbottom

Clear? Until you see sustained success beyond a 2 game winning streak, Nothing is clear with this team.

Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 7:57 am

There’s some interesting trends in there, that’s for sure. The big one that stands out to me is how entwined the offense and defense is. It’ll be interesting to see if the Kings can stand out on one end or the other at some point.

MichaelMack
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March 4, 2022 11:19 am
Reply to  Kingsguru21

I am commenting before looking it up, but I wonder if our Def Reb % has gone up with Sabonis. I think the ability to close a possession is underrated, and having good rebounders is a big part of that.

Kingsguru21
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March 4, 2022 12:01 pm
Reply to  MichaelMack

It absolutely has. That’s my main criticism of those stats DKFIU put up. TRB% can be misleading because it relies on there being more rebounds to be had. Especially in part because of offensive rebounding.

On the season, Sac is at 15th in ORB% (26.9%). On the season, Sac is at 22nd in DRB% (71.4%). Since Sabonis has gotten here, the ORB% is down to 23.5% good for 29th. The DRB% is at 75.9% good for 2nd in the NBA. (I used a 9 game sample for both.)

That’s how you can get a lowered TRB%.

MichaelMack
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March 4, 2022 12:37 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Thanks for looking that up.

DutchKingsFanInUK
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March 4, 2022 2:50 pm
Reply to  Kingsguru21

Good point! I’ll add it the stats I’m following, cheers.

Carl
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March 4, 2022 11:56 am

I had nothing better to do at work today.

Are they hiring? No matter how many times I cut the grass IT JUST KEEPS GROWING. I can cut mow, chop, trim and weigh. I’m pretty sure I can grow grass where it rains all the time.

And I think these stats are meaningful. This is a just under .500 team as composed.

Last edited 2 years ago by Carl
ZillersCat
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March 4, 2022 7:53 am

Should we wave as the Lakers fall below the Kings?
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Gregoryl
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March 4, 2022 8:39 am

Not sure why I am surprised, but I was watching the game recap on the NBA app this AM and they showed 9 highlights from the game… and 7 of the 9 highlights were for the Spurs. And its not like the Spurs are a sexy team that fans are clamoring to see.
Just another reminder about how much fun it will be when (if?) the Kings get to the place where the media has to start paying attention.

Jack
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March 4, 2022 11:27 am
Reply to  Gregoryl

I agree. They have been shunned.

1951
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March 4, 2022 8:57 am

Oh, so now they play a complete game?

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SelecaoKOJ
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March 4, 2022 2:13 pm

Kings don’t subscribe to rebuilding. While, I see teams like the Pistons and OKC pass the Kings in the standings within 2 years. There is nothing to take away from this game.

The Kings were flat out hammered the night before. They played with some intent on the second game to save face and hurt their draft positioning.

This is the time of the year where the KIngs win a few games and move towards their eventual pick 8-12.

I see some improvements, albeit it small. Better rebounding, more second chance opps. Same horrible defense. I see a sub .500, .500 team at best.

Sabonis makes a difference. How much, I don’t see too much yet in the standings. For a comparison. The Pels have had zero practices, like the Kings. Yet, they are 5-1 with Mccollum since the trade. Now that’s impact. Sabonis will help the team. But, I question how much. He wasn’t able to affect W-Ls much without Brogdan.and ot Oladipo in the lineup.

He’s a nice stat filler. But, smart organizations just don’t let 25 year old players go. Unless, they feel that said player really doesn’t move the needle.It’s safe to say Indiana has had a little more success than the Kings over the last 16 years.

I Like Sabonis. I am just not as high on him as a lot of other people on this board. He’s not good defensively, poor handles since his Pacer days, Really can’t shoot the 3 effectively.

He is the best passing big man the Kings have had in over a decade, and a good rebounder(But, not a rim protector).

The win doesn’t change the long term or short term view of this team either way.

RobHessing
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March 4, 2022 2:31 pm
Reply to  SelecaoKOJ

I think that the Pacers dealt Sabonis for the same reason that the Kings dealt Hali – he was somewhat redundant with other pieces on the roster (Myles Turner / De’Aaron Fox), and he was worth a lot more in trade than his counterpart (again, Turner / Fox).

satdawg
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March 4, 2022 3:23 pm
Reply to  SelecaoKOJ

One minute they’re 4-0 the next minute they’re 5-1 lol are you just making they’re record up

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