2022 NBA Draft Profile: Paolo Banchero

NBA Position: Big

General Info: 19-year-old Freshman, played at Duke University. From Seattle, Washington. Son of former Monarch player Rhonda Banchero.

Measurables: 6’10, 250 lbs, 7’1 wingspan.

2021-22 Season Statistics: 17.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.9 BPG, 2.40.6 TPG (39 games played, 33.0 minutes a contest), 47.8% FG, 33.8% 3P, 72.9% FT

All hyperlinks in this profile are video clips showcasing the skills discussed.

From the moment he stepped on the court against Kentucky until the Final Four loss against North Carolina, Duke big man Paolo Banchero was the leading scorer and best player on the most scrutinized team in college basketball. While Head Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s retirement tour sucked up so much of the media attention around the Blue Devils, Banchero’s offensive dominance was the real story, and he got better and better as the season went along. While he’s seemingly become a draft afterthought behind projected top two picks Jabari Smith Jr. and Chet Holmgren, Banchero’s offensive versatility, playmaking ability, and physical tools give him a real chance to be the best player in the 2022 NBA Draft class.

Banchero has an incredible combination of strength, size, force, balance, and skill. He’s much faster and more coordinated with the ball in his hands than dudes at his size should be. It’ll take him time to adjust to NBA speed and size, but he’ll be a nightmare matchup for many bigs from the get-go, and will almost certainly be an even tougher matchup as his initiation skills improve and he gets into his prime. For a big man to have his level of coordination, footwork, and live dribble ability at 19 years old is extremely impressive. Indeed, Banchero is the best bet in the class to be both a true primary playmaker and team-leading scorer in the NBA, and he’s the only player in the top 4 that I’m confident could run an offense early in their careers.

Banchero’s footwork, patience, and ability to score through defenders offers him a variety of ways to score in the post. And when he’s on the perimeter, Paolo makes defenders pick their poison. He’s such a powerful driver that he can be very hard to stop when moving downhill, and he can burst past guys and finish with power or finesse. He shot 58.1% at the basket in non-post-up plays in the half court (69th percentile in the country) despite drawing nearly every defensive eye on the court.

And if defenders take away driving lanes, he’s a deadly pull-up assassin. His mid-range pull-up is straight gold, and even if it looks a little herky jerky at times, I believe it’ll give him a go-to shot from Day 1. He shot 47.5% on all mid-range jumpshots (88th percentile), and 37.5% on all off-the-dribble shots (54th percentile). His dribble-to-pullup game often looks like a guard with an extended career of doing this, not a 19 year old sitting at 6’10 and 250 lbs. Between his post-game, driving ability, and pull-up shot, Banchero has a level of versatility to his scoring game that Jabari Smith Jr., Chet Holmgren, and Jaden Ivey currently lack.

The biggest concern for Banchero’s offense is his three point shot, where he shot 33.8% on the season. For a player who really needs the deep shot to optimize the rest of his game, it’s fair to worry about his ugly misses, or the many times he hesitates on a good look and blows any rhythm. His free throw success of 73% (which fluctuated throughout the year) isn’t the most promising number either. That said, I believe in his mechanics, especially when he doesn’t hesitate, and I see no reason that he can’t pull his deadly mid-range shot out to the NBA three point line. He improved later in the season and shot 41.4% from three in March on 3.2 attempts per contest. But his shot is his biggest offensive swing skill, one that will likely set or raise his ceiling in the NBA.

But while Banchero’s scoring talents are all excellent, his passing ability might be his greatest skill. Aside from Cade Cunningham, I struggle to think of any other tall prospects I’ve scouted with his level of playmaking and court vision. He averaged 3.2 assists per game in the season, and 3.8 per game in their final 18 contests. Duke was a very good passing squad this year; Wendell More led Duke in assists, and Jeremy Roach was also a strong tertiary playmaker, but Paolo demanded so much attention on defense, and it was his playmaking that really stirred the drink for the Blue Devils.

He can read defenses well, sees where double teams are coming from, and can throw fireball passes. His drive-and-pass game was a huge part of punishing doubles and keeping opponents honest. And given his live dribble ability and speed in the open court, he’s as dynamic a rebound-and-go threat as you could possibly ask for. Any team, even ones that already have initiators in place, should love to add a big guy with Paolo’s vision and playmaking joy.

Overall, Banchero is a massive threat with the ball in his hands. His decision making isn’t always stellar, especially against NBA-level defenders. He ends up with a decent amount of forced shots, but it was expected given his role. It may take him a good while to find the right balance between looking for his shot and sharing the ball, especially if he ends up on a team where he’s not the primary offensive option. But his level of self-confidence, even if it leads to too many mistakes, also leads to smart players developing new offensive skills.

I’d love to see Paolo get time as a small ball 5 early in his career, as it may be his best position in the long run. While it may exacerbate some of his defensive issues, his quickness and explosiveness will be even more pronounced against many NBA centers. That said, he was so damn good when paired with Duke Center Mark Williams, a traditional rim protector/lob threat, and the two of them developed amazing chemistry over the course of the season. If you assume (as I do) that Paolo will continue to stretch his game out and become a better deep shooter, he’s so versatile on offense that it’s hard to envision a big man archetype who Banchero wouldn’t realistically fit with.

On defense, Paolo has some real question marks, both for effort and instincts. He had highlights where his innate physicality and awareness shows up and moments where he was clearly engaged on defense. But there were also plenty of lowlights; he’d take bad angles on drives, leave his man, or expect help defense that can’t come. If he’s switched onto a guard, for all his quickness at his size, those switches often end poorly. And most importantly, his effort at the next level needs to be better, which is a scary sentence for a Kings fan to type.

His rim protection upside is also a question mark. 0.9 blocks seems low for a dude with his size and tools. He had real flashes of rim protection that made me wonder why it wasn’t more consistent. Perhaps playing with Mark Williams, an ideal shot blocker (11.4% block rate, 4.8 per 40 minutes) limited Paolo’s opportunities and desire to be a rim protector, as some of his highlights came when Williams was out of the paint. Whatever the reason, he needs to be more engaged and aware at the rim in the NBA.

Of course, there are few one-and-done prospects who are high-motor, successful defenders, especially those who—like Banchero—had to run the offense. Anthony Edwards and Jayson Tatum were both poor defenders in college, and I don’t think it hyperbole to say that Ben Simmons was one of the lowest effort defenders I’ve scouted. Plenty of these one-and-done prospects, especially those with high-end physical toolsets, go on to become better/much better defenders at the next level. It’s fair to hope and expect that Banchero’s tools will give him an edge at the next level, especially if his offensive workload diminishes.

That said, the concerns for Banchero’s defense do go beyond effort, especially when compared to the other forwards at the top of the class. Chet Holmgren and Jabari Smith Jr. were more focused and successful defenders this year, which is the main reason I’d prefer either of them in Sacramento than Banchero. But their strengths and roles on defense—Holmgren as a rim protector, Smith Jr. as a jumbo perimeter defender—are also a lot more easy to define. Banchero doesn’t have as clear a niche or defensive position, unless he drastically improves as a rim protector and becomes the ideal small-ball 5. He’s nowhere near as concerning a defensive prospect as he-who-shall-not-be-named was (the guy all chuckleheads will bring up every time we talk about a Duke prospect), but Banchero has a lot to prove on that end of the court.

Banchero had some early season issues with cramps, which cost him playing time in high-profile matchups against Kentucky and Gonzaga. He was given IVs and an oxygenated fluid drink to help him avoid further cramps, and it seemed to help as the season went on. He played 35 minutes or more in 9 of Duke’s last 12 games. I’m not a doctor and won’t play one on the internet—it seems crazy to me that a player with Banchero’s size could lose “up to seven pounds per game” due to sweat, but I fully trust the NBA’s medical professionals to determine how to keep Banchero on the court.

Banchero’s fit in Sacramento is somewhat complicated by the fact that he and Domantas Sabonis overlap in a lot of their strengths and weaknesses. Neither is the most proven floor spacer, neither is a proven rim protector, and while both are high-level playmakers, they both will want to command a big part of the offense.

Since I’m optimistic about Banchero’s shooting projection, it’s easy for me to dismiss the offensive concerns; the Kings haven’t had the best success in recent years in drafting initiators and figuring out how to balance an offense between multiple players, but as long as Banchero’s shot improves, I’d love to see what Mike Brown and company could do with Fox, Banchero, and Sabonis on offense. Imagine a pick-and-roll between Paolo and Sabonis, which could let Banchero punish the bigger bigs who can’t stay in front of him or react to his pull-ups. Imagine Paolo cutting off the ball for Sabonis passes, or the Kings emphasizing Fox becoming more of a cutter and off-ball shooter with two super strong passing bigs on the court. The trio would likely struggle without consistent shooters around them, but the framework could be something special if paired with high-volume, low-usage bombers. And between Sabonis and Banchero, who led Duke with 7.8 boards per game this year, the Kings could have an exceptional rebounding duo without giving up speed for size.

The defensive concerns are much more complex for Sacramento, and the Kings would be gambling on Banchero’s toolset elevating his defense sooner rather than later. Banchero absolutely would need to become more focused on the defensive end to fit with Sabonis, and the team may never have the dynamic rim protector each player would love to be paired with. Taking Banchero would complicated McNair’s job immensely, forcing him to prioritize both shooters and defenders at pretty much every other position on the squad. But if Banchero is on the board at 4, in this armchair scout’s opinion, he’ll be far and away the best prospect left.

I wouldn’t be surprised if either Orlando or Oklahoma City shocks the world and snags Banchero. And while it seems strange that one of the top four prospects of Smith, Holmgren, Ivey, or Banchero has to go 4th (or lower), if Paolo Banchero is the one who slips to the Kings, Monte McNair shouldn’t hesitate to select him. There are certainly some fit concerns, especially on the defensive end—but at his talent level, concerns be damned. Don’t overthink Paolo Banchero.

Combined with Sabonis, Banchero would give the Sacramento Kings the best passing front court (and with Fox and Mitchell, perhaps best passing squad in total) since Vlade Divac and Chris Webber. And while I’m not a fan of big-name comparisons, Banchero has a ton of highlights showcasing a combination of power and skill that take me back two decades to pre-injury Webber. I see Paolo Banchero as the draft’s best chance to select the engine of an awesome NBA offense. His three level scoring, athletic gifts, and incredible passing instincts should be eagerly welcomed by any NBA team, including the talent-starved Sacramento Kings.