Sorry y'all, can't watch the game tonight. Something more serious weighing on my mind right now.
THE OPPONENT
Wait … too green?
Donte Greene, step right up. Here is the most skilled 7-footer in NBA history. Enjoy.
THE KEY BATTLE
Tyreke Evans vs. Rodrigue Beaubois. Beaubois, the Guadeloupe product, is incredibly athletic. As it turns out, he can shoot too. Who knew?! Evans might have his hands full, assuming he guards Beaubois and not Kidd. We haven't really seen Evans defend off-ball energy guards much — he's usually locked in on a primary ball-handler, something Beaubois is not (right now). At the other end, while Evans has a length advantage and I assume a strength advantage, Beaubois is agile and spirited, a combination which usually makes for solid defense. We'll see.
NUMERIC PREDICTION
Now that the Kings have 10 games under their collective belt (that's a big belt!), we can use current point margins to predict how the game will shake down. By raw points differential, Dallas is a +7.7 and Sacramento is a -1.8 per game. The home team gets three points. Therefore, points differential would predict a … 12.5-point win for Dallas.
Basketball-Reference adjusts points differential for strength of schedule, and calls it Simple Rating System. The Kings have actually had the league's 10th toughest schedule so far, and as such the team's SRS is -1.17. The Mavs have an SRS of +5.89. Again using three points for home court advatange, SRS would predict a … 10.06-point win for Dallas.
I was writing some Bella Swan/Ron Weasley/Kathy Ireland love triangle fanfic last night when an algorithm for predicting basketball games came to me. I call it Sexy Systemic Rating System. The formula is too complicated for publication in full on a mere blog, but here's the idea:
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