When Monte McNair and the front office made the decision to draft Davion Mitchell with the ninth pick, it was apparent that a three guard lineup was in Sacramento’s near future. There are very limited examples of successful lineups with three guards on the shorter side, the most recent being the 2019-20 Oklahoma City Thunder.
To gain some perspective and understanding of that lineup, I brought on Jacob Kniffen (@JacobKniffen) who hosts the Uncontested Oklahoma City Thunder podcast.
Mitchell, Fox, and Haliburton actually have some comparable body types to Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Dennis Schroder. CP3 and Mitchell are both 6’0″-6’1″ and strong/tough for their size. Fox and Schroder are both listed at 6’3″ and have slimmer frames with impressive speed. SGA has one inch on the 6’5″ Haliburton, but both possess notable length.
The obvious question is which of those guards is going to be responsible for covering the largest opponent. Jacob explained to me how that Thunder roster managed to keep it together in the defensive end of the floor and why they were so switch-heavy. Luke Walton seems to be a fan of switching already, but that Thunder roster had a backline of Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel.
I picked Jacob’s brain about how crucial Adams & Noel to their competent defense and if we think that Richaun Holmes, Alex Len, and Tristan Thompson can have a similar impact and role in Sacramento.
The Kings were the worst rebounding team in the league last season, and that is something Oklahoma City struggled with in 19-20 as well. With smaller lineups, there really is no avoiding this and hopefully the Kings can gang rebound to prevent them from getting killed on the offensive glass. This could lead to less transition opportunities for the Kings, as explained in the episode.
When it comes to the offense of that Oklahoma City lineup, they shot the ball at a ridiculous rate. The lineup of CP3, SGA, Schroder, Gallinari, and Adams posted a true shooting percentage of 67% including 75 percent at the rim and 43 percent from deep. Sometimes guys just have a good year shooting the ball and that certainly was at least partially the case for OKC that season.
Their clutch stats were also ridiculous, and that’s partly because of how isolation-heavy their offense was. Typically with a three-guard lineup, you would expect the ball movement to be supreme, but that OKC assist rate was actually pretty low. This is because there was almost always one mismatch from one of their guards or a simple way to create that advantage.
Fox is a player who clearly excels in isolation situations (especially if it’s an advantageous matchup), but Tyrese Haliburton and Davion Mitchell are notably worse in that aspect than Schroder and SGA. I don’t think the Kings will be as isolation-heavy as that OKC squad, but it may be more frequent than past seasons.
It’s undeniable that OKC roster was more talented at the top, but Sacramento’s does have greater depth and additional X-Factors. To close out the episode, I asked Jacob who he thought the ideal type of role players around three guards are and which on Sacramento’s roster fit that description.
There are not many examples (I really struggle to even find one good one outside of 19-20 OKC) of teams who regularly rolled out three-guard lineups throughout the NBA. That Thunder roster made it work though, and they finished the year with a 44-28 record, good for the 5th seed in the Western Conference.
Sacramento is surely hoping for similar success, but they will first need to prove the skeptics wrong in the same way that Thunder team did.
Let me know in the comments what has you skeptical, excited, or confused when it comes to a three-guard lineup consisting of De’Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, and Davion Mitchell.
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I think if you are going to switch by default, you are taking away a main component of Mitchell’s disruption of an opponent’s offense. His most obvious strength is his ability to fight over / navigate around screens and stick with his man, it would be dumb to throw that away with a switch-happy scheme.
I hope that Luke will be able to coach to his players” strengths. Not holding my breath.
That’s a great point about Mitchell’s ability to stick to his man. You’ll still want a backline player to be ready to jump out on a switch, or for trap opportunities, but that person will need to make quick decisions about whether he actually needs to help or not. Fortunately, Len and Thompson have been good defenders, and Holmes has shown great instincts in that regard.
You want to have your best players on the floor, and if that eventually applies to Mitchell, you’ve got to run the smaller lineups, and hold people accounting if they don’t defend.
Then I think I know which scheme will be used this year.
To me, this is somewhat apart of the issue. I think the primary reason to roll out a three-guard lineup is for the offense, not the defense. Idk if there is anyway that Fox, Mitchell, and Haliburton are all optimized on defense by playing together.
Ignoring one side of the floor, a very Kings-like approach. 🙂
This seems to indicate that fixing the defensive issues is probably not the main objective of the team. Not surprising, really.
Yet, fixing the defensive issues has been the talking point from Kings media. It seems to me a three guard lineup is the approach on offense, while simply adding Mitchell seems to be the bandaid for defense. I’m not sure both ends of the floor are going to work for this idea.
Possible scenario for how this plays out: Mitchell brings a defensive intensity that the other players feed on, and with Fox’s quickness and Hali’s long arms in passing lanes, the Kings become a turn-over to fast break team. Pride in defense will be BACK IN STYLE. As for prognostications, how are most SF Giants predictions looking right now? #applestooranges
If it’s Barnes and Holmes at the 4/5, spacing should be fine but rebounding will be a legit problem.
Metu and Holmes provide better rebounding and rim protection, but Metu isn’t as good a 3pt shooter as Barnes.
Bagley shouldn’t be here so I’m leaving him out of the convo.
FWIW, David Aldridge released his annual piece on The Athletic (paywall) where he hands out offseason grades. He does this by analyzing offseason trades, free agency, coaching changes, etc. In his bit on the Kings he address the 3 guard lineup. He feels it would be awfully small with Barnes at the 4.
https://twitter.com/davidaldridgedc/status/1429791232776151049
Difficult to argue against.
Easy…
Maybe some variation of this for a TKH shirt?
“THREE WOLF MOON”…..”THREE GUARD MOON”?
Three Dog Night?
That’s cold.
You’d have to be a lunatic to run the three guard moon lineup.
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Yep. Outside of drafting Mitchell (giving them exactly one player who knows how to play defense), they did nothing else to improve the roster.
McGenius’d.
Pretty easy to counter his offseason ranking of 29, actually. Not sure why in that article he even had to consider a 3-guard lineup. Just another case of groupthink, but some analysts, like Sam Vecenie, have already taken back their doubts about drafting Mitchell. (This was supposed be in response to RikSmits below)
He doesn’t necessarily have a problem w/drafting Mitchell. It’s the failure to do anything else to improve the Kings that’s the problem.
THIS. If Mitchell was BPA on their board, then I have no problem with it. The issue is what they did in response to drafting Mitchell, which is pretty much nothing.
What do you feel the front office should/could have done? And please be specific, the details are important.
How about not trading for TT and signing Len while leaving a gaping hole at SF? Is that a good start?
Haven’t we had this conversation about having 5 guaranteed centers on the roster already?
Gaping hole at SF? That’s a weird thing to say because, with this roster I would probably start two of them (Barnes and Harkless).
This is where someone replies that in a small-ball lineup, those guys are fours.
Uh-huh. So then Hield or Haliburton are your small forwards. Could there be better options than any of these guys as a true wing? I should think so.
Who are they, how are they acquired, and what is the cost? The details, man. The details.
There are different possibilities, for sure. For example, if Barnes and Harkless start, what might the second team look like? Probably bigger up front with Metu or Bagley playing the 4 and smaller at 3 with TD playing there. Although, TD is one strong dude, who I think can handle it fine.
Five centers? Y’all still doing that? Do you actually believe that, come the first game, there will be five centers on the roster?
[Hint:] You don’t.
But like I said, the details are important. How would your gaping hole at small forward have been repaired? Which free agent do you feel should have been signed, and more importantly, could have been signed?
You wanted specifics and I gave them to you. There are 5 centers on the roster: Holmes, TT, Len, Jones, Queta. They are listed on the Kings roster if you want the receipts.
I’m not a gambling man by nature, but I’ll bet you any amount that you name that the season will not open with all five of those guys on the roster.
So I ask again: Do you actually believe that?
I have no reason not so since McNair so far has spent most of the offseason with his thumb up his ass. He either re-signed, guaranteed, traded for, our outright signed all 5 of those guys. It’s not like he was stuck with them on the roster and is looking for move them. HE ACTIVELY ADDED ALL 5 OF THOSE GUYS TO THE ROSTER JUST IN THE PAST MONTH.
No reason? What about common sense?
I’d also have thought that you’d be aware that from time to time, well-thought out plans (and ones less so) don’t always come to fruition.
You’re clearly a bright guy, but I feel like I’m talking with a child.
This is exactly my thing – he chose to add all 5. It’s not like he had to take one of them back in a trade for salary to match. And none of them can stretch the floor so they are all redundant and can’t share the floor together.
It starts and perhaps even ends with firing Luke Walton, and pursue some good coaches which were available this off-season. Specific enough, or do you need to know which coaches would likely do a better job?
If you are retaining the coach that led a team to two 9-game losing streaks and the worst D in NBA history, you send a powerful signal. Not the signal I would want to receive, but still…
This is one thing for which I don’t need a lot of details, since you’d have to look far and wide to find someone who would be a worse head coach than Lose Walton.
By questioning 3-guard lineups in the context comparative offseason grades, that IS what he’s doing, same as the majority of draft analysts after draft night. Safe company, good betting odds. Reporters have a lot to cover. Gotta save time. just say “Kangz” and you’ll probably be alright. Fact of the matter is, it’s a great pick is Mitchell is a good combo guard off the bench and a possibility a steal if he turns out to be the BPA at 9. But you say “failure to do anything else”? How about resigning Holmes, TD and Harkless? The trade deadline acquisitions had only a handful of games with the others because of injuries to Fox, Haliburton, Barnes, Holmes, pretty much everyone. And Picking up Len also? #29? Yeah, ok.
I mean, yes, he didn’t do anything else because the roster is the exact same as it was to end the season bar Mitchell instead of Wright. The Holmes deal is great, that’s fantastic. But it doesn’t make us a better team because we still are the same team.
And personally, I don’t like TD or Harkless playing as big a roles as it seems they’ll have.
Eh, who cares? I don’t really care, don’t know why anyone else does.
“I don’t really care…”
And yet, here you are. Curious.
I was talking about the article. David Aldridge dislikes Sacramento for some reason, not quite sure what it is.
And if he doesn’t have something against Sac (which I highly doubt), this article isn’t proof of that. He just thinks the offseason hasn’t done anything meaningful in terms of on court improvement. Which is something a whole bunch of people here have said. The article is quite the nothing burger.
I get moody, sorry for picking at you and appreciate the clarification. I’m not much for DA’s analyses either. Very East Coast, almost to an exclusive level.
If you want a three guard lineup, one should be Ben Simmons.
Really smart to have this guy on, good call Brenden. Looking forward to listening!
Brenden has been killing it with the guests
Thank you, but I could definitely use some recommendations lol
Tim Donaghy
Gonna need Greg to pull some strings
I really like what Mitchell brings to the Kings and I am excited to see what happens and how he plays. That being said, there are three factors that stand out to me about how the season unfolds:
One: Welcome to the NBA, Damian Mitchell
It’s one thing to shut down college and highschool players, and it’s another to shut down players who are starters on NBA teams. There is definitely going to be a Rookie Wall here in the month of November or December, when the wake up call sounds. Players are going to blow by him at times, and score at will, and when the ref blows the whistle for his third foul in the first quarter, it will hurt.
Two: Changing the Team Culture
The biggest thing standing in the way of the Kings making any kind of significant leap in development is Luke Walton. He’s the head coach, and unless he gets COVID or whatever, he is going to be a major factor in how they play, and team chemistry and so forth. If our offense is just ‘give the ball to Fox and get out of the way’, the way it was last season over and over, we aren’t going to magically get better. There is no word out of Luke’s camp about changing anything at this point, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in the team growing while he’s sucking the oxygen out of the room without his mask on.
Three: Team Buy-In
It’s one thing to get some guys to play hard for a college team’s short season, and have an awesome run, but it’s different getting NBA players to join in throughout an 82 game marathon. Mitchells going to run out of gas, and maybe only do two extra workouts a day, but veteran players know that this is a business, not a Hoops Movie storyline. It’s damn hard to get players to sacrifice their shots or stats for the sake of the team, just to MAYBE get into the Play-In round at the end of the season. Defense is hard work, and the mental focus and high basketball IQ needed to make it effective isn’t there for all of the players on this team (see: Bagley, Marvin for exhibit A.). Talent is there, but motivation is probably going to take more than a rookie gym rat who hasn’t played a minute yet against Booker, Young, Paul, Fox or Curry. He’s got a lot to prove, and it’s going to take time.
This all being said, I hope we actually DO have a storybook season and win the whole damn thing, but these will be things I will be watching for rather that pinning my heart on my sleeve or clicking my ruby slippers!
Until Davion stops, he’s still on a roll!
Championships:
HS > College > Summer League > _____________
Can’t stop. Won’t stop.
Biggest difference is that OKC had 1 future hall of famer. We’ll have three.
In the draft, I think the Kings wanted Wagner who went at 8. They would have taken Kuminga if he dropped but BPA at 9 was Mitchell.
They chose Mitchell over Bouknight, Moody,Kispert, Kai Jones, Duarte and Williams. ( and Sengun- but that is a longer story)
Of these players, Mitchell does have a unique skill and the BPA moniker fits. The 3 guard line up discussion resulted from the BPA pick. The 3 guard line up desire did not cause the pick.
Kings have what they have. The BPA argument would not have resulted in Bagley. and then the discussion would have been around- who is the primary ball handler- Fox or Luka?
I do like Michell more than Wagner and am glad that choice was not offered.
We just see what happens.
Mitchell has looked good so far while Wagner can’t get a shot off.
The 3 guards will all have to play off the ball at times. Different than SL where Mitchell’s usage was high.
Sengun – longer story… I see what you did there.
Monte…where is Ben Simmons?
When is Ben Simmons!
Why is Ben Simmons?
Sacramento Airport…………soon…………
(with Hield and Bagley gone)
Monte (in black shirt) trying his best
The Kings have the ability to run 3 guard lineups. It doesn’t mean they have to. While they lack wing depth it isn’t like they don’t have any wings. The conundrum is just that three or four of their best 7 players are guards and they have solid guard depth.
That being said, I was impressed at Mitchell’s ability to guard bigger players, on the perimeter. The issues with smaller lineups are more likely to be exposed with post ups and and rebounding. Not much you can do about that. As great of a defender as we think Mitchell might be, he’s not guarding a 6’7″ guy with even average post up ability.
When the opportunity presents itself to run 3 guards and it’s effective, do it. When it’s not, then you’ve got to run out Holmes/Len/Thompson, Bagley (or replacement)/Harkless/Metu, Barnes/Harkless/King, and two of Mitchell, Hield, Fox, Hali, or Davis. Obviously wing depth is an issue with this roster right now, but it’s not like a 3 guard lineup is the only tool that is available to this team.
Ok…because not everyone here is on twitter, or follows Pete Youngman…
https://twitter.com/_petethetrainer/status/1429949597657427969?s=20
Ranadumbe’s Ride
Is it necessarily a 3-guard line-up?
I am sure there will be small ball rotations etc. However maybe the plan is to be an interchangeable 2-guard line-up, so 2/3 guards are on the floor most of the time i.e. so we don’t get torched when bench comes in?
Just a thought.
Walton already runs an ISO heavy offense with Fox. Sometimes exclusively. No, like for real.
While it can be effective in a playoff-like setting, its a great way to wear down your best player over the course of a full season. Hield isn’t dependable / consistent enough to be counted as a legit #2 scorer IMO and Hali plays a very complimentary role, so I don’t see the 3 guard lineup being a great choice for us. At all. Especially when you add in our terrible rebounding last year. The Kings just don’t have the firepower for me to see a whole lot of pros to this argument of playing small ball.
What if you did something like Len/Thompson, Holmes, guard, guard, guard? It’s sort of playing small, but not in the common meaning of the term, since you’ve got legit-sized centers & power forwards on the floor.
I will concede that this could be a terrible idea.
It’s definitely not the traditional definition of small ball and about the only way to balance out the rebounding deficiency of having 3 guards on the floor. If your guards can shoot (Buddy and Fox certainly can, Tyrese and Mitchel to a lesser extent) I think it could have potential but at that point what do you do about Barnes? He’s a starting caliber player and a damn good locker room guy from all accounts…
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