The Kings Herald Show returns with a ton of Kings news to break down this week.
Listen to Jerry Reynolds, Will Griffith, and Tony Xypteras talk Keegan Murray, Malik Monk, Kevin Huerter, the NBA Draft, trades, free agency, summer league, Sasha Vezenkov, Keon Ellis, Neemias Queta, and what Monte McNair needs to do from here.
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Here’s the depth chart as I see it:
Fox-Davion
Monk-Davis
Barnes-Huerter-Vezenkov
Murray-Metu-Lyles
Sabonis-Holmes-Len
That’s a decent 8-10 man rotation, but I’m worried about the defense. Davion is the only truly good defensive player on the roster. Huerter and Vezenkov aren’t the big wings I was imagining, but at least they can both shoot.
If Fox can be the guy he was after the Tyrese trade for a full season, he’s an All-Star. That’d make two All-Stars on the roster. Murray needs to be at least league average at the forward spot. If these things come together, I think this team makes the playoffs. That said, I wouldn’t expect much more than that and am not quite sure how we build on this in the future.
It’s mostly semantic, but I would expect Huerter to start next to Fox. And Vezenkov is likely much more of a stretch 4. You’re not going to want him defending on the perimeter. Lyles should also be getting more minutes than Metu, but really, you don’t want either on the floor much.
I was trying to be generous with roster balance. I’m really worried about wing depth.
Hopefully that’s where they focus with those last roster spots. Did Edwards. Sign anywhere yet?
edit: Yep, looks like he re-signed with the Nets.
Yeah, I really wanted the Kings to offer him more than the Nets could.
That’s why often it’s easier to do depth charts by minutes.
Something like:
Pg: fox 32, Davion 16
Sg: huerter 20, Monk 28
Sf: Barnes 20, Murray 10, Huerter 8, TD 10
Pf: Murray 20, Barnes 10, Sasha 18
C: sabonis 32, Holmes 18
Coaches figure out the mix but something like that for minutes breakdown
I see no possibility where Davion Mitchell plays fewer than 25-30 minutes per game. Guessing that Lyles is going to have an important role in some capacity, and that it will be a good thing.
Yeah you don’t bury your 4th best player on the bench for 32 mpg
I knew I blanked somewhere, of course he gets more. 8 sg minutes at min go to him, putting him at 24ish
Like that a lot but 50 minutes at 5 not happening .
Haha 16 to Holmes. A beer or 2 had been drank, I’m in Santorini!
That really leaves Davis pretty much out. I would like some comments on a possible trade to get another wing. We still have some players with a little trade value in Davis, Lyles, Metu and Len and our second round pick in 2023. I’m looking to try and get Chuma Okeke from the Magic. The guy is bigger than Thybulle and has a better offensive uoside. He also plays defense especially on ball at the same level as Thybulle. What do you think? And he is young.
why would Orlando give him up?
I’m also worried about wing depth. Maybe as much as PG depth and shot-blocking.
Same with you. I’d probably prefer a lineup of Fox, Huerter, Barnes, Murray and Sabonis.
“That said, I wouldn’t expect much more than that and am not quite sure how we build on this in the future.”
I agree with this, but it is a process. Keep trying to upgrade as you move along. We are going to find out if you can build a winning team around Fox.
You can probably build a winning team around Fox (over .500), but not an elite team.
I’m assuming Monte’s vision is that he’s assembled enough shooters/contributors on cheap contracts that cash-strapped contenders will be willing to throw assets at him for the likes of Monk, Huerter, TD, Lyles, Metu, Barnes, Holmes, Vezenkov, and maybe even Davion.
Hope you are correct but do not believe that is the case .
Fox might get us over 40 wins at some point. He is not a leader though. He is a fast guard who is a threat when he can shoot. He has to play off the dribble which ultimately is his weakness as a player.
He doesn’t make a team better than an average team because he has to be the one with the ball too often.
I don’t think that the fact that what the Kings ended up doing in the draft & free agency, and the fact that there were leaks was particularly out of character for McNair. When you’re drafting nine or twelve, there’s far more uncertainty about who is going to be there when your turn comes. When you’re at four, it’s much easier to nail down what’s probable, particularly in a year like this when the first three picks were all but foregone conclusions. The only drama was Ivey or Murray, and if you factor in fit, there wasn’t a ton of mystery as to what was likely to happen.
Hard to say if the Monk foreshadowing (god I talk weird) came to be because of his friendship with Fox, but the Huerter trade, at least to me, was completely out of the blue.
Your foreshadow is foreboding speak Doth bequeath my sympathetic passion for Kings and the realm!
You guys are never gonna tally up the Nostradumbass scores for this past season, are you?
Keegan Murray is god.
SHAMGOD
“Remember to be yourself, unless you suck. Then you should try to change.”
-Jerry Reynolds (2022)
Another T-shirt TKH. Get on it!
That’s a good one. Part Yogi Berra, part Jack Handy.
Wow, that’s exactly right!
I wonder if they will bring Murray along slowly or throw him into the starting lineup immediately. I can picture them starting him in a 6th man role for the first 10-20 games of the season. We’d get killed defensively but opening day starting lineup could possibly be
Fox
Monk
Huerter
Barnes
Sabonis
I have a feeling it will be something like this. They’ll probably use those early games to see whether Huerter or Monk has the best chemistry/results with the other starters in deciding who starts at SG.
There’s no telling how high in the saddle the ego rider sits.
Entirely from my butt pulled projection of what my eyes see of Keegan Murray, he doesn’t seem to have to be an opening day starter. I don’t know if that could be said of any other top 5 pick in this year’s draft had the Kings selected them. But maybe.
Point being- Veteran starters: Fox, Monk, Huerter, Barnes, Sabonis seems a reasonable expectation for 18 October 2022 here on 7 July. Bring in the rook with him getting the best chances for success – like a real winning franchise might do.
Of course, that should be up to Head Coach Mike Brown and no one else (Not GM McNair nor GM Vivek/Aneel/Matina). But who the heck knows? It’s the Kangz after all.
Fox now has a roster that should enable him to have a breakout year, along with a coach who should get the most out of it. The team still needs a better 2, but the process of upgrading the roster over the long term has begun. I’m not sure if the team makes the playoffs, but it should be much better than last year. Barnes and Holmes look tradable to me. Not sure if Holmes fits here as a reserve, and doesn’t seem happy with the role.
This looks like a long term upgrading process to me, as well. If I’m looking at the current group of projected starters with Fox/Sabonis/Barnes, how far is that going to get us.
Granted we added few nice pieces with Murray, Hueter, Monk, and TD is coming back, but we’re still pretty far away from being in contention for any postseason play, in my opinion.
Unless Coach Brown can coax 5 additional wins out of this group, the Kings still look like a sub 40 win team.
I believe the Kings are moving in the right direction, and maybe this whole process takes 2 or more seasons, but I don’t think the Kings have shaken things up nearly enough, unless there are looming trades on the horizon. We’ll have to see. There’s still plenty of time before opening night.
I’m in the same neighborhood as you. The best case for me is that Sabonis and Fox meld in a way that Fox and Hali never did, and that is worth about 4-5 wins. Brown gets buy-in on defense and that gets you another 3-4 wins. So I’m not sure that I see a ten game improvement (to 40 wins), but I can see the team sniffing at that if everything goes as planned, especially if Huerter and Monk deliver in a way that their predecessors did not.
Are we working off of the team being a 30 win team? 27 win team? Because my issue is: I have no idea what the real baseline for this group is. Basing anything off a 15 game sample size seems silly (even Fox’s numbers). You had a roster in flux all year, Fox underachieved for alot of the season he managed to play, you had an interim head coach. You had alot of road games on top of that.
I get the pessimism or realism ot whatever you want to call it. I just don’t know we have a clear understanding of what this roster’s capability is because we’ve hardly seen it.
To be fair, a prediction of 38 wins is probably optimism – I’m guessing that 38 will be over the Bovada number by more than a game or two.
I agree that we have no idea what this revamped roster and coaching staff can produce, and here’s hoping for the best. But it is a tough road in the Western Conference, and right now there appear to be three teams clearly worse than the Kings (Hou, OKC, SA), and probably eight teams that are clearly better (GS, Mem, Den, Phx, Dal, Uta, Min, LAC). That puts the Kings in 9-12 range with LAL, NO and Por. The blended winning percentage of the 9-12 teams last year in the Western Conference was .424, which equates to 35 wins. That seems like a reasonable take for this squad right up to the moment that it proves otherwise.
Yep. I don’t expect the public narrative to be kind to the Kings and there’s no reason to expect that to change.
Yep. It’s not going to be easy, but there’s no reason to expect that it would be.
Yeah, that’s a fair take. I maintain that we don’t know what this squad ultimately is, but I certainly don’t blame anyone for expecting the Kings to show they can do it.
With those numbers
Then what? Baby bridges. We’ll then cross the next Win-now bridge when we get there I guess
Play-in loss; Here we come!
I agree with your top 8, but we can’t predict injuries. Injuries’ trump talent, so avoiding them is key to their success, and will determine their record as much as any other factor, including talent. If the Kings have a major piece go down for an extended period, they’re screwed. But, if they stay healthy, there will almost certainly be someone above them that succumbs to the injury bug, and they can take advantage.
Sabonis may be the guy they can least likely afford to lose. They’ve got some real depth in the back-court now.
That seems doable and is sadly the high end but a little hope is better than none .
Should there be a factor for teams tanking for Wembanyama while the Kings push hard for the playoffs = a few extra Kings wins?
Salient point. And yes someone will at some point this season, throw in the towel. If the Kings stay healthy, they should be able to take advantage.
Better than last year: lost 4, gained 5. Assumes Sasha signs.
Lost Jones, DDV in free agency. Moe and Holiday in trade.
Gained: Huerter in trade, Monk and Ellis in Free agency, Murray. Vezenkov (technically a trade) in draft
Gained 4 shooters.
Huerter> DDV
Monk > Holiday
Vezenkov > Moe
Murray, Ellis > nothing
Q <Jones
Edwards re-signed with Nets who have signed 3 guys in last 2 days. Preparing for KD departure I suspect.
Look at Yuta Watanabe. Martin twin -expensive. Bro got 4/32.
For you minutes distribution folks, add about 15% to account for injuries. So even though there are only 240 regulation minutes per game, it really extrapolates to more like 276 when you account for players missing games. I would throw my dart as follows (subject to no more roster changes):
32 – Sabonis
32 – Fox
30 – Barnes
26 – Huerter
24 – Monk
24 – Mitchell
24 – Murray
22 – Vezenkov?
18 – Holmes
14 – Davis
10 – Lyles
8 – Len
8 – Metu
4 – Disaster PG
This is a very broad estimate, and some of it will be way off, and the guys at the bottom are often times higher MPG than projection while also racking DNP-CDs, but there is my spaghetti against the wall.
“It’s not spaghetti, it’s linguini.”
“Now it’s garbage.”
BREAKING: THE SACRAMENTO KINGS SIGN DISASTER PG TO ROUND OUT THEIR ROSTER.
The Kings expect DISASTER PG to be a perfect fit with the team.
Disaster? Hell, it killed her.
Rectum?
Killed her? I hardly know her!
Huerter?
Freddie Ferrari, pass first point guard?
Disaster PG is named Cash Considerations.
I hear he’s money.
I see a roster with a bunch of C level players with B level upside. Fox and Sabonis might be the only B level players with A level (All Star) upside. I suppose it’s an upgrade from having rosters full of Ds and Fs the past 10+ years…
To make the Playoffs you need at least 1 established A level player and a handful of Bs. This roster could be that or they could all regress to C-D level players. There are so many question marks on all these players, it’s tough to be too optimistic or pessimistic until we see what Mike Brown does with the team.
More than anything I think other teams in the West having bad injury luck and us having good injury luck is the most likely way we sneak into the playoffs or playin.
Who the injury bug bites will have a huge impact on the Kings standing in the WC.
Usual strategy in Kangz land is depending on other teams best players to be injured . So you say there’s a chance .
More than a chance, someone will get bit. I actually like that strategy, but it may be giving the Kings too much credit. You can definitely depend on other teams best players being injured. The hard part is staying injury-free themselves, and taking advantage.
By now, it shouldn’t surprise anyone how we make bad players average, average players good, and good players superstars.
This offseason is a prime example.
Basketball Hell
This is exactly right in respect to fans expectations, exactly wrong in terms of historical performance.
Kings have 2 “NBA players” (that’s high but not top level- Fox and DS. That’s the B level
2 close- Barnes and Murray (my projection) That’s the C level
and 3 less close- Davion, Huerter, Monk
Need more top level
where they end up? that’s why they play the game I suspect.
I think Huerter and Davion are B level or will be soon . Indeed, it is to be proven during actual games .
I believe.
The Kings win 46-48 games this year. If it doesn’t happen, I never said this.
I think 45 wins is quite possible, as well.
You don’t have to squint very hard to see a very potent offense with this accumulation of talent.
Nope. I think not having to transition your roster will help alot as well. Having a head coach that you know will likely be here for a few years won’t hurt matters either.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Kings have a top 7ish offense and maybe a low 20s defense? That’s a formula that I can see getting you 45 wins.
Putting aside that top 7 offense would absolutely surprise me, that combination (7ish offense, 20ish defense) was basically where the Hawks were last year. Their Pythagorean put them right at 45 wins.
Personally, I’m expecting something closer to a league average offense give or take.
Didn’t expect an optimistic take coming from you. I’ll say it again: This comes down to faith. And I would assume most here do not have that.
They were 2nd in ORtg and 25th in DRtg. Point taken.
I think there’s a recipe for a top 10 offense due to the ability to play inside and out and the ability to get in transition. The area where this team has never done well is eFG%. And alot of that has been poor shot selection. I think with a training camp, more talent and a more optimized roster, you’ll see a top offense more often than not.
Again, it comes down to what you think of Fox, and I think the majority of TKH doesn’t think he’s that valuable. And that’s the way it’s gonna go until it doesn’t.
Huh, I’m not sure what I was looking at for ATL. Maybe I was accidentally on a different season.
For what it’s worth, I think Fox is valuable, just not elite. I think somewhere around the top 30-40 range is likely his destination. Right around that fringe All-Star level. Which is a really good player.
I’d give a kidney for 45 wins.
So we can possibly get 90 wins!
This is a low-key incredible response.
Vezenkov is the key baby!
Brimful of Sasha – 45
Possible and stars need to be aligned- possible. I did not expect Minnesota to get as many wins as they did.
I know this is going to sound stupid- but may depend on Zelenkov- if he is rotation player i.e. ahead of Lyles and Metu, then that could help.
and, BTW, KG21- I saw that Memphis signed the #35 pick Chandler to a long term deal. Your insights about high second rounders are right- Not sure if Kings saw any players at #37 that they would commit to. Again, this makes the Sasha issue more important. i.e. get something out of the second round.
Cavs traded his rights so they could draft Mobley’s brother because Mobley needed a friend
and there is money left over from the Monk contract.
This isn’t necessarily true. The notion from the Doomers is that this team cannot win without top end talent… which this team does not have. If you don’t think Fox is that guy, then you don’t.
Kennedy Chandler was the 38th pick. But I don’t think the Kings saw signing Chandler at that money being worth it to them. That’s an area Memphis has done well for years. It might work out, it might not.
I don’t think Sasha Vezenkov is anything more than rotation depth, and I’m not worried even a little about bringing him over. Or guaranteeing him a spot in the rotation. He comes over or doesn’t, but he’s not much more than the 11th or 12th man in the rotation. Success at Olympiacos is nice and all, but the guy isn’t making buckoo bux over there. Signing Vezenkov feels more like ‘we gotta sign this guy because other teams do’ tone to it than a likely difference maker. If Vezenkov could give this team 500 minutes, I’d be thrilled with that. But I’m not worried about signing him to a 2 year minimum.
Off topic:
Kings Vegas Summer League roster has a few additions.
Here’s hoping coach Fernandez plays less Ferrari and showcase TJ Sparks instead.
He looks like a very capable 3rd string PG based on the films I just saw.
TJ Starks
Are we sure that’s not the name of a 90s cop show?
TJ Sky Hooker
Of course one never knows what ultimately will happen, but most prognosticators are predicting 35 wins for the Kings at this point. For a management team that is apparently trying to win now, I wouldn’t call that a great off-season. I would like to hear from management prior to the start of the season what their win expectation is for the upcoming season. It would be nice to get a list of objectives and then at the end of the season grade them on how they meet those objectives. I personally think this is a franchise scrambling with no clear objectives. They’re trying to win now instead of rebuilding but then they give up their second round, I don’t get it but who knows maybe some additional moves will take place that provide more clarity.
Couldn’t disagree more and think you’re salty about Ivey tbh
I could care less about IVey. I said clearly the advance scouts will determine the best player for the Kings. I don’t know who that will be and you certainly don’t. I thought possibly they could leverage the pick into more assets but beyond that I made no preference between IVey or Murray. The Kings management is acting like they were somewhere near the finals of the Western Conference and they just needed a piece or two to get them over the line. Moves for players like Monk and Huerter are improvements around the margins not transformative. The Kings need high end talent and when you can’t get it through free agency the draft is really the only path. It’s illogical to be giving up future first round picks for a player that will not make a significant change.
Let’s see what happens, people make these overly optimistic homer comments and then when they don’t occur they get a case amnesia. I remember ranting about how stupid the Hill and Zzzbo signings were only to have a large majority of people vehemently disagreeing with me. I also said the same thing about the Dedmon signing and more recently warned about overpaying for Holmes which they did. I hope I’m wrong this time but unless there’s a follow on move, I’d be very surprised if this team as constructed goes far beyond the 35 win total which is my prediction as of now.
Most prognosticators are predicting 35 wins for the Kings? Which prognosticators are you referencing? Can you provide a link? I haven’t really read any sites or writers predicting win totals for teams a week into FA and months before the season starts.
You can go to the Hyatt in Incline Village where I was two days ago and place a bet on the over under win total for the Kings. It’s 35 right now. Knock yourself out.
For whatever it’s worth, the current odds for the Kings winning a title this season is +50,000 according to BetMGM, which is tied for last with a few other teams.
I am guessing you didn’t take the over then. Seems like a decent bet to me. That’s really interesting, thanks for sharing that.
Sacramento Kings35.5-105/-110
I’m not 100% certain, but it looks to me like you provided a link to that site’s prediction for the 21-22 season.
yup
OT but just thinking about all the random players we’ve had throughout the years and made me curious what everyone’s favorite short term Sacramento King was? Outside of all of the usual favorites of course. I think mine was Terrance Williams for the 18 games he played for us. I think he’d excel in today’s game
Also, if Dontè Greene was drafted to the spurs would he have been a hall of famer 😂🥲
It was fun seeing Vince Carter on the team for a short while. No longer the Vinsanity of former days, but it was surprising to see his game morph.
Two come quickly to mind for me:
Rashad McCants – unsurpassed entertainment value
And, I will say, of course… DWTS Champ
Iman Shumpert
The Trevor Ariza era is a favorite of mine, along with George Hill and Dedmon. Just the complete futility of their time here sums up my experience as a Kings fan.
Favorite short term Sacramento King?
Damontis Sabonis
(ducks, runs for life!)
Didn’t know anything about Vezenkov until watching hightlights from his 29pt,11 rb Olympic Qualifier game a few days ago….I’m intrigued. His game fits with the team needs.
Great show!
Once again, I am impressed with the podcast: Wisdom drips off of JR – I’ve been listening to that man for decades and he still enthralls me (and I may repeat this sentiment many times in the future) – but a solid shout out to Will and Tony. I enjoy the comfortable chemistry you three share.
Not quite Duncan, Parker and Ginobili or Bird, Chief and McHale but you are, in my mind, a very wonderful and strong Trio.
Thanks again! I am already looking forward to the next show.
So when will Jerry read from the work of Dr. Seuss?
One Salmons
Two Salmons
Red Salmons
Blue Salmons
Thornton Hears A Who
How Dick Bavetta Stole Christmas
I’m confounded that everyone seems convinced H. Barnes is a Power Forward. To my mind, the position(s) you play is the position(s) you can guard. Barnes can score at the 4, and can guard some 4s, but did anyone see what Aaron Gordon (not an All-star) did to HB? I could see HB starting, at the 3, on a very good team, maybe a contender. Could not possibly imagine a universe where HB starts, at the 4, on a playoff team. Amirite?
This begs the question: what about Murray? My only real reservation about him is, he could be a tweener. I’m not worried, but right now he’s a small Power Forward. I think he may already be stronger than Barnes, and will fill-out/get bigger. This may be an argument for beginning Murray’s career off the bench. It’s probably optimistic to include him in the Kings 5 best players before seeing him against actual NBA talent. Not saying I wouldn’t start him but, I don’t think they need to. And he may be really good as a 6th or 7th man. I wouldn’t see it as a bad outcome, at least until HB is traded at the deadline. Or if Murray comes out of the gate strongly at the 4 spot, then move him into the starting 5. I couldn’t say then who would start, at 4, to begin the season.
This is why I still, very much like the idea of John Collins. I would have loved to see them try for Roby, or even a move for Tobias Harris. Vezenkov is an X-factor. Who’s left that could really help? I’m not suggesting it but, Miles Bridges. That’s about it, in terms of guys who fit the timeline. Webber had similar legal trouble when they got him. That move kick-started the only glory years in Sacramento history. Bridges may be on his way to prison but, he’s innocent until proven guilty. Moreover, when was the last time a big-time sports star went down for beating-up a woman? Before everyone gets disgusted and starts beating me up, understand I’m already disgusted with myself for entertaining the thought, but it is reality. As far as what are the chances of Monte actually signing a guy like that, is it worse than what T. Davis did?
Paul Milsap would fit the culture perfectly, fits into a system, and could maybe play some decent defense. He wouldn’t stop the ball, or take bad shots. I know I’m reaching. The Kings also still have a lot of dead salary on the bench. They should be looking high and low for a way to cut bait with R Holmes, A Len, and maybe Davis as well. In terms of quantity, the Kings probably have more 4s than 3s, depending on where you slot Vezenkov, and Huerter. Bring back J Jackson? I wouldn’t. They still need another PG and some shot-blocking. Maybe Milsap can still block a shot? Maybe Len can get back to being productive? They need to find a new home for Holmes. They need that roster spot. Mac McClung would be awesome! I’m definitely annoyed they let D Jones just walk away. If he wanted to go back to LA, there wasn’t much they could do I guess, as he was an UFA.
If your actually still with me, thanks for reading. This has been, I believe my longest rant to date, but I’ve been off-line for a minute. Please reply if you have a constructive comment. Don’t bother with the doom and gloom, as I’ve had my fill. I already have to live with my own bad attitude. I don’t need yours.
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