2021 NBA Draft Profile: Moses Moody

NBA Position: Wing

General Info: 19-year-old Freshman, played for Arkansas. From Little Rock, Arkansas.

Measurables: 6’6, 205 lbs, 7’1 wingspan.

2020-21 Season Statistics: 16.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.7 BPG, 1.6 TPG (32 games played, 33.8 minutes a contest) €“ 42.7% FG, 35.8% 3P, 81.2% FT

All hyperlinks in this profile are video clips showcasing the skills discussed.

At first glance, Moses Moody may seem like a strange player to end up as a favorite for Sacramento Kings draft fans. The 6’6 combo wing isn’t as crazy a scorer as James Bouknight, or as explosive Keon Johnson, or as tall a defensive impediment as Franz Wagner. But his versatile skill set, excellent jumpshot, and composed, physical approach on both ends of the court make him jump off the tape – and makes him a better prospect, in this armchair scout’s opinion, than any of those other prospects. Moses Moody is a lock to be a two-way difference maker, a true 3-and-D player who will be ready for an NBA role very quickly into his career – but one who also offers strong upside beyond the €œsafe€ label he’s been branded with.

Moody is a versatile, physical defender, and Arkansas coach Eric Mussleman used his combination of size, length, toughness, and defensive instincts against any different defensive assignments. Per Synergy Sports, Moody held his opponents to 32% shooting overall, 85th percentile for all collegiate players. In the play below, Moody starts off guarding Jonathan Aku (6’10, 263 lbs), keeps Aku from backing him down (with some help from Justin Smith), and ends the play by blocking Quenton Jackson at the rim. For an 18-year-old freshman, Moody’s defensive abilities and motor are excellent.

Moody probably won’t be quite as defensively versatile at the next level – he guarded 1 through 4 for Arkansas, but that range will probably shrink to 2s and 3s in the NBA outside of switches. While he’s not the quickest or most explosive athlete, his 7’1 wingspan gives him defensive range that most wings with his footspeed don’t have. He may not be the King of deflections in this draft class (hat tip to Wagner), but if college basketball deflections were counted somewhere, he’d have a whole bunch. His balance and footwork lets him stay in front of a variety of quicker players, and his length lets him clamp down on drivers. He’s also an aware help defender, constantly digging and disrupting when he’s off the ball, and his defense on drivers in the paint led to some outstanding highlights against BJ Boston and Kentucky.

He’d be best on a squad that prioritizes getting a true rim protector, as he’s adept at directing ball handlers either into help defenders or into awkward angled shots. There are times where he overplays on the help and leaves his man – often a shooter – fairly open on the perimeter, and trusts his wingspan to get him get back in time. This is something he won’t be able to do as much with NBA-level shooters. Indeed, I do worry that Moody’s defense may take time to catch up to the speed of the NBA game – so many of his awesome closeouts or blocks come not from insane timing, but because his wingspan covers up so much ground. I’m not entirely sold on Moody as a lockdown, one-on-one defender against the leagues’ best scorers – only because of his height and athleticism limitations – but I’d never bet against Moody figuring out how to optimize every part of his game to become an excellent defender. And he’d become a fan favorite in Sacramento very quickly.

Moody’s value on offense is clear – he’s one of the draft’s most promising shooters, and hit 35.8% from deep on 5.1 three point attempts per game. Being the leading scorer on an SEC team that finished 11th in the nation in points per contest and got to the Elite 8 cannot be undersold. He’s got a consistent, smooth release that isn’t lightning quick, but his long arms and great balance help keep the shot away from opponents. He’s adept at navigating screens to get his shots off, but also loves a quick jab-step move to get himself space to shoot. When he’s off the ball, Moody relocates with purpose, takes advantage of his screeners, and shows strong potential as a movement shooter.

A majority of Moody’s offense at Arkansas was the catch-and-shoot; a whopping 43% of his attempts on the year came off the catch, and he shot 36% on these looks, 63rd percentile in the nation. To note, 75% of all of his catch-and-shoot shots were considered guarded by Synergy sports – not a surprise, given both his slower release AND that defenses were focused on him. But on those 25% of unguarded shots, he hit on a 45.5% clip, 80th percentile – and it doesn’t take much imagination to imagine Moody getting transition looks or more space on shots at the next level if he’s playing off of De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton.

Moody also drew a ton of fouls, earning 5.8 free throw attempts per contest and sinking 81.2% of them. When his shots weren’t falling, he almost always made an impact at the line. In his ten worst shooting games of the season, Moody shot 8.6 free throws per contest – he’s not a player who will vanish from games when his shot goes cold.

While his 6’6 size isn’t crazy for a guy who should play as a combo-wing, Moody does have another advantage over many wings his size – his rebounding numbers. He’s a physical, determined rebounder, and averaged 5.8 boards per contest, second highest on the team. His physicality around the rim and 7’1 wingspan helped him snag 2.0 offensive boards per game, and he shot 70.3% on offensive rebound putbacks, 91st percentile in the country.

Moody’s vision as a playmaker doesn’t leap off the statsheet – just 1.6 assists and a 1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio is fairly low for a dude who led his team in shots this year. His handle is also very much a work in progress. While he’s not a ball dominant player, I don’t think he has the typical €œeyes in the back of his head€ awareness that some passers develop. But his low assist numbers do hide some good passes, and in a smaller role at the next level, I’m willing to bet that assist rate improves.

Impressive no look pass by Moses Moody, manipulating the defense which frees up the pass to Desi Sills cutting baseline for the layup pic.twitter.com/sC2TPE7KYA

— Zach Milner (@ZachMilner13) February 7, 2021

Not everything on offense paints Moody as a future big scoring option. While he does show some craft around the basket, and his 6’6 size and 7’1 wingspan give him a baseline of ability in the paint, he’s not a strong athlete by NBA standards. His first step is lacking, and he’s pretty much always a two-foot leaper. When he has time to load up, his wingspan makes him a threat – but he’s not explosive, which leads to a ton of misses around the basket that you’d expect a 6’6 small forward to make. He scored at just a 52.9% clip around the basket, 45th percentile among college players; not terrible by any stretch, but he absolutely needs to find more avenues to take advantage of defensive overplays.

Moody needs to do better at using his wingspan to keep the ball away from defenders – and perhaps add a floater to his game, something he did not do much in college. And while you’d think a dude who moves as much as he did might be an effective cutter, that was not the case in college, even in Arkansas’ solid spacing; he shot just 44% in 35 attempts off of a cut. While I believe that Moody is one of the best shooters in the lottery, that shooting gravity will not be fully unlocked until he is at least a threat to take it to the basket.

It should also be noted that Moody’s offensive efficiency cratered in the NCAA Tournament. He averaged 13 points and 4.5 rebounds while shooting 33% from the field and 18% from deep in those four games. To me, his lack of success against those tournament teams, as well as his lackluster numbers around the rim, are the biggest red flags in his evaluation. But when our friends Deuce and Mo interviewed Coach Mussleman on their podcast (a must listen), Mussleman himself offered a concise argument against Moody’s poor numbers, specifically in their tournament loss to future champ Baylor; €œBaylor’s defense was insanely good, and Moses was the one guy who could get shots up against a great defense.€ While Arkansas was a gritty, tough, and fun team, it is true that Moody was their one real offensive creator. He struggled in the tournament because teams ran double- and sometimes triple-teams at him, something his skillset and experience wasn’t prepared for – and something that is unlikely to happen as often in the NBA when he settles into a lower-usage offensive role.

But it should be noted that the role he played for Arkansas was a massive departure from his high school career. While his 22.3% usage rate isn’t all that high for a lottery pick, being the go-to scorer was a departure from his high school days at Montverde Academy, when he played next to Cade Cunningham, Scottie Barnes, and Day’Ron Sharpe. Moody’s spacing ability made him an ideal wingman next to Cunningham – much more the role I think he’ll play at the next level, and one that makes him more interesting for a team already rostering Fox and Haliburton.

While I truly doubt Moody would ever be a leading scorer on a great NBA team, I do think his shooting advantages at the next level could make that silly €œhigh-floor, low-ceiling€ label obsolete quickly. I don’t trust his handle or isolation craft to make him a dynamic creator, but his NBA weapon is hidden in plain sight – a pull-up game that somehow only got used on 62 possessions last year. To me, this shot is his creator upside; he has a nasty one-legged fade shot, reminiscent of Dirk Nowitzki. He showed some strong timing and craft on some mid-range shots off the bounce, and I think can be scaled to become a bigger part of his offense – a weapon that could give him some creation threat under the 3 point line at the next level.

Moody’s combination of shooting ability and defensive versatility cannot be undersold in the modern game, especially after a NBA Final series where Kris Middleton, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, Cam Johnson, and PJ Tucker were 5 of the best 10 players€¦ and not to be hyperbolic, but none of those players led their college programs in scoring at 18-years-old. But Moody is 5th on my KingsCentric Big Board not because I think he’s a guaranteed big-time offensive option – but because his all-around game is already so valuable to the modern NBA that any improvement with the ball in his hands will send his game skyrocketing. For a Sacramento Kings squad that needs young talent but isn’t likely to put up with raw talent, Moody is a player who can provide immediate, two-way play – a very good shooter and very good defender – who may have the upside to make a trio alongside De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton that launches this Kings rebuild forward.