Royal Roundtable: Best of Three?

The Kings Herald staff got together to reflect on the matchup with the Warriors now that it’s all evened up at 2-2. Plus, how will De’Aaron Fox’s injury factor in?

Q: The Kings lost both games in San Francisco, but are there any positives they can take from those losses?

Akis: There wasn’t much positive to take from Game 3, but Game 4 was right there for the taking with Harrison Barnes just missing a clean look at the end. On the road, you want to be able to give yourself a chance to win the game and the Kings had that chance. Perhaps the biggest positive from that game was that Keegan Murray finally showed up. I like that he had two aggressive pull up mid-range jumpers to start the game which seemed to get him into a rhythm before he started going back to being a three point sniper. Murray’s shooting has been a big part of this team’s offense all season and it was nice to see it return. De’Aaron Fox also continues to be incredible and nearly carried this team to a win by himself down the stretch. Davion Mitchell has also been incredible in this series, both in his defense on Stephen Curry and in finding his offense when it’s needed.

Rob H.: The performance of De’Aaron Fox has been a huge benefit for this team moving forward. And the play of Davion Mitchell and game 5 Keegan Murray have been a gift. What other top shelf rookie is getting this level of playoff experience? And Mitchell has become a bona fide big game asset, one that gives Monte McNair even more flexibility as he continues to mold this roster.

Also, the core of this roster is no longer Harrison Barnes trying to explain to everyone else what playoff basketball in a hostile environment is like, as they have all now lived it.

Not trying to put lipstick on a pig here, but I don’t know that two losses could have gone better for the Kings as it pertains to this team’s growth and maturation.

Tim: The biggest positive is that the Kings can win in Golden State. Yes, they lost both matches, but either game was winnable, even the blowout in Game 3. If the starting shooters (thank you for last game, Keegan) finally start to hit shots (Huerter and Barnes are 8/41 from deep in four games and have combined to average 22 points per game in the series), Sacramento can beat the Warriors at home. They’re not invincible.

Greg: Several positives, as the others have already mentioned. Fox showing out to a national audience, Keegan Murray finding his feet in the playoffs, and Davion Mitchell continuing to step up are all huge positives for this team both this season and beyond. But the biggest positive I took from Game 4 was that it was the first game of this series where it looked like the Kings were actually running their normal offense. The Warriors worked so hard to disrupt Sacramento’s flow in this series, and they failed to do so in Game 4. Maybe it’s lack of focus, maybe it’s tired legs, I don’t know, but that is a huge positive for me.

Q: Who needs to step up their game the most in order for the Kings to win this series?

Akis: Well I guess this depends on if De’Aaron Fox can or cannot play now unfortunately.

I think the easy answer would be Domantas Sabonis, but I think a big part of Sabonis’ struggles is how much attention the Warriors are giving him. Both Kevon Looney and Draymond Green have done an excellent job defending Sabonis this series, and their drop coverage strategy is daring him to shoot midrange jumpers and also clogging the paint for Kings drives. The Warriors have also tried their best to eliminate the Dribble Handoff offense that worked so well for the Kings this season.

But I would still go with Kevin Huerter as the guy who most needs to step up. Huerter was one of the better shooters in the NBA this season, but you wouldn’t know it looking at this series. Huerter is just 3 for 21 from long range in this series, and most of his attempts are open looks too. Huerter is probably the one suffering the most from Golden State’s defense of the Dribble Handoff, but he’s got to find a way to adjust and hit his shots. Especially if Fox can’t play or is limited because of his finger, the Kings are going to need all the scoring help they can get.

Rob H: It’s Kevin Huerter and it’s not particularly close. Keegan Murray would have been an alternative answer prior to game 4, and he needs to maintain his momentum. Harrison Barnes and Domantas Sabonis could be a little better, and a little more consistency from Malik Monk would nice.

Honestly, with the exception of Fox, the entire starting five could be a little-to-a-lot better. The bench has been generally adequate, with periods of breathtaking.

Tim: I’m pretty frustrated with the performance of Domantas Sabonis. Yes, the counting numbers have been decent, but he’s missing bunnies and hook shots left and right, and his rim protection has been poor, although the Warriors deserve a lot of credit for that as well. Over the last four games, he’s shot just 9/20 on layups (45%), compared to 67% in the regular season, and he’s drawn ONE shooting foul on Kevon Looney according to the NBA’s matchup tracking data. To be honest, he’s been the second-best center out on the floor for the majority of the series. If the Kings have a shot at winning this series, especially with De’Aaron Fox’s injury, they’re going to need All-Star/All-NBA Domantas Sabonis, not quality starter Domantas Sabonis.

Greg: It’s Kevin Huerter. He’s been unable to play defense without fouling and he’s been a non-factor on the scoring side of things. If he had a normal, average game in Game 4 (or 3 for that matter) the Kings could be up 3-1 right now.

Q: Can this team overcome De’Aaron Fox’s injury to win this series?

Akis: I really hope so but it all depends on if Fox can play effectively or not with the injury. We saw Domantas Sabonis survive all season with a similar injury, but it was to his off-hand, whereas for De’Aaron it’s on his shooting hand. Fox also has to dribble and handle the ball a lot more. If Fox misses any games,or if he’s clearly not himself in games he does play, I don’t think the Kings really have a chance. It’s really unfortunate, because the West feels wide open this year and Fox was playing incredible. If he does manage to play and the Kings do somehow win this series, you might as well retire his jersey now though, because that’s the stuff legends are made of.

Rob H.: Now that it’s a 3 game series with home court advantage, I’d give the Kings a slight chance. Huerter finds his game, Terence Davis contributes, Monk & Mitchell play their absolute best. Could happen. Unlimely, but could happen.

Tim: If De’Aaron Fox plays at a decent level, they have a shot. If Fox misses Game 5, I think it’s over. As great as Davion Mitchell has been from a two-way perspective, the Kings are tied 2-2 with the defending champions because De’Aaron Fox has been better than Steph Curry and one of the best players in the entire postseason. I don’t think any combination from Sacramento’s guards can replace his offensive output, and his defense has also been pretty great, a skill that Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter can’t replicate next to Davion Mitchell.

Greg: I’d put the odds at Fox playing through the injury at 50/50 right now if I had to guess. And whether he plays or not, I think this series is also a coin flip now. It’s hard to imagine Fox, even if he plays, being 100% his usual self, and any sort of decreased effectiveness balances out the Kings home court advantage.

Q: Four games in and the series is now tied at 2-2. Is this about what you expected before this series and how do you see the rest of it going?

Akis: Yeah, this result over 4 games doesn’t surprise me, aside from this unfortunate Fox injury news. In our first roundtable, my prediction was that the Warriors would win in 7. I feel a little bit more confident in the Kings after four games than I did before the series, especially given that we had a real shot (quite literally) to be up 3-1. Game 5 is going to be huge, and I think whoever wins that game will win the series. If the Warriors win Game 5, I think we are going to lose Game 6 as well. If we win Game 5, I think this series is going to come back to Sacramento for Game 7. Whatever the case, this series has been a huge experience boost for this young Kings team and hopefully they can keep it going. They haven’t been perfect, but they also haven’t been the wide eyed, deer in the headlights new team that many expected them to be. They’re standing toe to toe with the defending champs, and I’m proud of their effort so far.

Rob H: (Pre-Fox injury): I think I had the Kings in 7, so 2-2 after 4 is pretty much on point. What has surprised me is the elevated play of Fox as a first-timer to the playoffs, as well as the focus and execution of Mitchell.

I still see it going the full 7, and I still have the Kings winning it. This squad has not wilted in the moment. In fact, they seem to relish it. I expect the games to continue to be close, and a good or bad break could possibly tilt the balance of this series. But I just have this feeling that the Kings will be resilient and ultimately prevail. Reasonable expectations have already been obliterated (and in a great way, for a change!), so why the hell not?

It’s now a best of three with the Kings holding home court advantage. That. Is. Nuts!

(Post-Fox injury): Well, ain’t that a kick in the crotch. Fuuuuuuuu……

Tim: This was the most likely outcome. The Warriors are awful on the road and very good at home, and the Kings were likely to protect home court with their insane crowds. Fox’s injury changes everything from this point, though. If he was at full strength, I would agree with Akis above and say whoever wins Game 5 wins the series. At this rate, I’ll be a little surprised if the Kings don’t lose in six. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

Greg: It’s about where I expected it would be before the series, but not where I expected it to be after the first 2 games. It felt like the Kings won the first two games despite some poor play and some very lucky breaks for the Warriors. Things continued to bounce Golden State’s way in San Francisco, and the Kings continued to make mistakes and not play to their full potential. I won’t be shocked if this series goes 7, but it’s so hard to predict now with Fox’s injury.