On Tuesday luck smiled upon the Sacramento Kings, and they jumped from the 7th pick in the draft to the 4th. With the higher pick comes a whole new range of possibilities, new options of who might be available when the Kings pick, and options if the Kings should choose to trade the pick.
With all the discussion happening around these various options, I keep coming back to one overriding thought: This is fun!
I’ve already seen the battle lines begin to form as people hone in on their favorite draft prospects or preferred strategies. But for the moment I’m still reveling in the moment.
My preferred option is to wait and see what happens with the top three picks. Going into draft season there’s usually a consensus top tier, and yet every year it seems someone sneaks into that top group. Last year was seen as a clear top four, but then Scottie Barnes jumped in and bumped Jalen Suggs to fifth. And Barnes obviously deserved to have jumped! So while there’s a generally agreed upon top 3 in this draft, and landing fourth may carry some level of initial disappointment because of that, there’s always the possibility that some other player sneaks into the top 3 and the Kings are gifted one of Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith Jr, or Paolo Banchero.
Even if the consensus top three are gone, the Kings are still left with far better options than they would have had at the 7th or 8th picks. Before the lottery, we thought maybe just maybe the Kings could get lucky and Keegan Murray could slip, but it seemed unlikely. Now we’re debating if he’d be too much of a reach at the fourth pick! It’s incredible how three draft spots higher changes the value available to you.
The Kings will also need to evaluate Jaden Ivey and Shaedon Sharpe. Both have undeniable skills and athleticism, and either one could end up being the best player in this draft when all is said and done. Sharpe seems most likely to sneak into the top three, but the draft process is still just beginning.
And finally, there’s the possibility of the Kings trading the pick. The fourth pick is a more valuable trade chip, for all the reasons outlined above. Maybe the Kings trade down a couple spots and add an additional player. Maybe the Kings package the pick and other pieces for another player on the level of Sabonis and Fox. I think the Kings should and will wait until draft day to make any sort of trade, just in case one of those top three does slide, but I’m open to the idea of making a trade.
Monte McNair and his staff have their work cut out for them. The basketball gods have granted the Kings a great opportunity to significantly improve this team. There’s obviously risk that comes with that opportunity as well, but the one thing we can all agree on is that Monte McNair has used his first round picks well in the last two drafts. There’s reason to have some faith that McNair will make a good pick.
We have about a month until the draft, and I’m sure we’ll have tons of rumors and debates in the meantime. I’m excited for all of it. I’m sure at some point the standard existential dread of being a Kings fan will creep in, because we know how quickly lottery luck can be squandered, but I’m not experiencing that dread. Not yet.
This is fun.
We should definitely wait and see what unfolds on draft night in case Chet or Jabari slip.
But if our options at #4 end up being Banchero/Ivey/Sharpe, I think another team would be extremely motivated to trade up with us, and I don’t know if any of those players are really what the Kings need. In which case, I’d be a proponent of trading back and hopefully picking up another contributor.
Wouldn’t mind trading with Detroit for Grant or Bey + 5, or trading with Indiana for a guy like Duarte + 6. We could even do 13 and 15 from Charlotte, but I’d probably want a vet attached to it.
All of this is to say there are a lot of possibilities for how this offseason develops that we couldn’t imagine a matter of days ago. The #4 pick and players like TD, Holmes, and Barnes present Monte with the ammunition he needs to fill out the team around Fox-Sabonis.
This is truly the make-or-break offseason for Monte. If he pulls it off, the Kings may finally make it back into regular playoff appearances. If he messes it up, it’s probably another 5 years of drought. No pressure, Monte!!!
That’s a good post. Regarding a deal with Detroit, they will not give up Bey to move up one spot and if they did the deal for Grant, do you really want to pay him what he expects to get?
Not really, just illustrating that there’s a lot of avenues we take this offseason and in quite a few of them we come out a respectable basketball team. That’s new and exciting!
I guess I’d ask, if we were to add sufficient player salaries, would you do the four/five swap to get Grant and Bey, with the idea that re-signing Grant isn’t a particularly high priority?
Grant could also have potential as a trade piece to a contending team trying to add wing depth and defense, with the added bonus of his expiring contract.
I’m just thinking out loud here, and I must advise you that when I do, I have a strong Italian accent.
Not sure I follow that. Who are the Kings giving up to get Grant and Bey. I do it with Barnes and Holmes in the deal but I don’t think Detroit accepts that deal.
I’d agree that Barnes and Holmes would likely go to Detroit in such a swap. I don’t know if additional players like Harkless, Len, or Lyles might cut it, but I’m not sure that I wouldn’t consider a future protected first-rounder in order to secure Bey. He may very well be worth the cost.
salaries have to be traded for salaries. Cannot trade #4 for two salaried players.
Could trade Kings salaries = to those 2 guys and give #4 but that’s a bad deal.
I also doubt they would give up Bey to move up one spot.
I just don’t see the intrigue with Grant especially given how much you’ll have to pay him.
Why would they have to pay him? He is annually a target at the trade deadline for contending teams, if McNair did that deal I am sure he could flip Grant at the deadline for an asset, whether it be a draft pick or player.
I’m assuming if they trade for Grant they are planning to keep him.
Bey is still very young. They are not moving him. He’s part of their core. Grant is going to be 29 and overrated. He fits on a contender. He won’t move the needle much on this team.
If Banchero’s available at #4, it’d need to be a hell of trade for me to be comfortable w/the Kings trading down.
Given the amount of time people put into discussing the lottery and draft prospects, I can imagine a few people being partly disappointed if we’ll finally manage to stay out of the lottery (not-trade related). 🙂
Are you talking….
It will be something of an adjustment.
Six seed! Yes!
Great, another middling pick. Way to fuck it up, Monte.
Six Seed? Who are they passing to get into the six?
Dubs: No
Mavs: No
Grizz: No
Wolves: No
Clips: (With Healthy Kawhi and George) No
Pels:(With Zion, Mccolllum, BI, and V) No
Nugs:(With Healthy Porter and Murray) No
That Leaves the unknown: Lakers, Blazers, and Jazz.
Kings best hope is a play in. At best.
It would be nice to turn TKH into a Spurs type blog. Those guys don’t even have writers dedicated to prospects or the draft, where half of our writers can rattle off lottery odds in their sleep. Seeing that the Spurs have only been in the lottery TWICE THIS CENTURY, I’d be surprised if they even know how it works in San Antonio.
I’m guessing L*ker blogs only contain articles about buying or trading for other teams’ superstars.
And also about cryptocurrency, and their favorite influencers.
Yup, they totally believe they are going to trade Talen Horton-Tucker and Lebron’s dirty jock for Damian Lillard.
Speaking of, I hope anybody here invested in crypto picked the right time to unload it. Personally, I don’t have the constitution for that kind of rollercoaster. I’ll stick with my “get-comfortable-slowly” scheme, thankyouverymuch.
I turned my stimulus check into like $25k from that. Used all of it to buy Cardano at about 8 cents and when nobody would listen about investing. Crypto market is so predictable. Best time to buy is when people think you’re crazy for buying. Best time to sell is when teenagers are using their allowances for dog coins and people are paying millions for jpegs of monkeys. I do think there’s a future for it all, especially with NFTs that can provide proof of ownership (for cars, houses, collectables, songs, student records, etc etc) and smart contracts that can programmatically check through the blockchain for all of those things – but it crypto is still in ints infancy. Till then, the market is so predictable with these waves. The bear market will last a while (probably a year or two), the next big tech in crypto will pop up and everyone will be flooding their money right back into it.
The fact that you got a stimulus check tells me your market prognostication is not as good as you proclaim.
Just because I’m married, have a household income under $150,000 and pay bills means I can’t make good decisions about investing in crypto? That makes no sense. That means I don’t have millions to flop around and chose not to invest a crap ton due to other risks like crypto being banned or token algorithms screwing the market (look up UST which was supposed to always be worth $1 but now it’s 50 cents).
Nice you sharing the profits with the tax payers? Because of stimulus only 39% of US households paid federal income tax in 2020.. glad you made use of yours.. not assuming you didn’t pay taxes not throwing shade..
I, for one, welcome the 2023 playoff overlords.
Eric Musselman gave his thoughts on the players that are generally considered the top three prospects in this draft. It’s a good analysis from the perspective of a coach who had to go up against all three. He thought they were all deserving to be picked that high and was asked to rank them. It’s on the Athletic.
Greg, I agree, moving up is fun and does open things up for us.
Murray..Murray and a dos of Murray.. he would be great for this team. Sabonis making pass to him for pick and pop or as he cuts, he has a good three point stroke can play both forward positions, he is more mature so should produce quicker. We need a forward that can shoot…solid, solid pick and will be a long term quality player. It is what this team needs with the current roster..
I don’t know a thing about Murray. Any player comps?
I think he’s a cheaper John Collins, but with better defense.
i will add he can play both forward spots .. he has good low post and spot up shooting. Shot 40% from 3 last year on 4.7 attempts, his game would really complement Sabonis, Fox and assuming Barnes. He is an older sophomore at 22. He is shorter than Collins…
I don’t know if I see him as SF. I think he’s a legit stretch 4 in the NBA with his 7 foot wing span and ability to crash the boards. I’m not hung up on his height because he has the length. He’s 6’8″ whereas Collins is 6’9. For reference Draymond Green is just 6’6″
Keegan was a late bloomer that I think will bulk up once he hits the NBA
I think I should have clarified the SF comments I think there are match ups where some team may play a larger SF, although tere are less these days that do so. There was time when you had guys like LeBron, Durant, Dano, Tobias Harris playing the 3…
I do really love his game and his fit.
I’ll also add, I could see him as a small ball 5 at times. He did play quite a bit of center at Iowa.
Yeah, he’s a classic 3-5 where you don’t want him spending a whole lot of time on either end of that Spectrum. A lot like Barnes in that way, actually.
My only issue with that comp is that he doesn’t have anything approaching the athleticism that was Collins’ calling card as a draft prospect.
Judging by stictly the comps on Murray, it sounds like he is a high floor low cieling prospect. I don’t know, with that 4th pick I’m hoping we can land a star.
Also, as one of the comments stated, doesn’t seen like Murray has the athleticism to be comped to Collins, I can see that just based off watching Murray’s highlights. Body build and movement wise he reminded me of Gay or Jabari Parker.
Murray may have a work ethic and determination comparable to Davion’s. If so, then, like with Davion, it can be hard to estimate the ceiling. Some players bring more defensive skills and better offense and shooting to their game each year until their bodies begin to betray them. I suspect that this may be true of both Davion and Murray. Don’t confuse athleticism with a high ceiling, which depends a lot on commitment to one’s craft.
All true. And I agree that we tend to act like both ceilings and floors are more solid than they are. Though I would also point out that the vast, vast majority of NBA players are exceptionally hard workers. Just because someone works hard doesn’t mean they’re going to make the major development leaps it takes for any player to become a top NBA player.
Also want to point out that Doncic was labeled more of a really high floor, lower ceiling kind of guy. In the end this ceiling/player comparison stuff are just opinions and not really as set in stone as some want to think.
A lot of us wanted Luka b/c it seemed like he was a high floor/high ceiling prospect.
with 4th pick need a star. Has to be, in a couple of years first or second best player on team. Murray is good but he will not be that.
Why are people so high on Collins? He’s overrated. Can’t shoot the 3, has no d. He’s has some ceiling. But, right now, he’s no game changer.
He’s overpaid and I think his contract would take away our flexibility to make other moves.
I’m not a big fan of Collins, but this is pretty hyperbolic. He’s shot average to well above average from 3 for the best three seasons on moderate volume, and is about average-to-slightly below average as a defender. His major holes are in creation and passing.
Slightly shorter than Collins but longer wingspan. Much more confident outside shooter. It is not an afterthought with him, like it is with Collins. Murray actively seeks outside shots.
Collins is good with fantasy numbers but his presence is :distant”. People will know Murray is there.
Stretch 4- and he will fit well.
But- got the 4th pick. Take BPA. Both JI and SS are better players ( potentially)
His end outcome: Siakam
Median outcome: Thaddeus Young, Rudy Gay
Low end outcome: Trey Lyles
Sorry, that top one should say “High end outcome:”
I’m leaning more towards another Trey Lyles. Murray doesn’t sniff the athleticism of Young or Gay. I think on an already good team, Murray can shine. If asked to be a #3 option level guy, not sure he makes the cut. He struggled against good comp.
Solid in all areas- no big weaknesses, Can defend but some questions about agility vs. smaller guys. Pretty good size. Good shooter from 3 levels.
A very good SAFE pick.
But– Kings get #4.
take the safe guy who is not a huge reach at 4 but a reach nonetheless vs. high reward and some risk- for Ivey or Sharpe.
Murray will be there at 5 and probably at 6. So if the plan is to take him ( safe pick) then move down and get a lot for that- don’t just take him at 4.
IMO-Ivey is BPA at #4. Potentially Derrick Rose like
SS is athletic- Potentially Z. LaVine
Murray is Barnes but bigger and slightly potentially better.
I doubt anyone would move up for Murray but would for Ivey or SS.
But this is your top 6 picks- top 3 and these 3 with Murray at 6.
I’m honestly also leaning toward drafting Murray. I think he has more of a ceiling than what others think. His game is just so effortless that some might find it boring. He definitely isn’t flashy, but he’s efficient and effective. Would also fit perfectly with Sabonis and provide a better timeline for Sabonis than waiting for a guy like Sharpe to develop or wasting a season figuring out how to play Fox and Ivey together.
I need someone else to jump, and let Jabari Smith Jr fall to 4th………………..
With the 4th pick in 2022 NBA Draft, the Sacramento Kings select Jabari Smith Jr
If Monte wants Jabari, he’ll have to trade up to make it happen.
Your Sacramento Kings, where the most fun part of each season is when they are not playing.
It’s true! No poor efforts, no blowout losses to lottery squads, the rotations are all perfect, and TKH staff allows the possibility that they’ll have enough plastic surgery to make themselves less frightening to dogs and children.
If you’re not playing, you’re also not losing!
I’m with you Greg. This is alot of fun. And jumping 3 slots opened possibilities you didn’t really have at the 7th or 8th pick.
I have my preferred dream. Acquire John Collins without using the 4th pick, grab Jeremy Sochan or Tari Eason in the draft (both would be fun), and maybe pick up a project along the way, too. Likely won’t happen and the development part of that may be problematic, too.
Just as an aside:
The Stepien rule only applies to future picks, not picks trading picks previously. So not only do you have the reality of a player dropping or being there at 4 who can help you, you also make it easier to trade future picks without having to factor 2022 as one of the 7 years in the 7 year window you’re allowed to trade picks in. In otherwords, if you traded the 4th pick this year today, you’re only allowed to trade future picks through 2028. If you wait until you make the pick, you can trade away future picks up to 2029. More importantly, however, you can trade your 2023 pick because the future part, and the back to back no trading future picks element of the Stepien rule, no longer applies once you’ve made the pick.
Another point:
I agree with this, but I can tell you the anti trade Haliburton folks do not. A point I know you’re aware of, but that also means that not everyone is in agreement that McNair has gotten value out of the draft.
Personally, I think McNair has proven he can do alot with what he’s given. He’s had no cap space, two late’ish lottery picks, alot of dead roster weight, inherited a max player in Fox (I don’t think he took issue with that), stuck with a no-win RFA situation in the court of public opinion the first day on the job with Bogdanovich, and now could have cap space in 2023 with all the Kings picks available to trade and no bad contract to move in a deal. Although I don’t think that’s the angle with cap space, the one thing McNair has not done is devalue players on the roster. You could argue Holmes, but I think Holmes value in trade was never as high as some thought around here. Alot of teams being interested in a player doesn’t automatically equate to high trade value. Especially if that player is at a lower tier salary as Holmes was on his first deal in Sac.
I’m somewhere between cautiously optimistic and optimistic at this point. Jumping 3 spots added maybe 350-400% in value. That’s not insignificant. There are players who can help you at the top, middle and bottom end of the draft.
This was a messy, badly run organization in a number of ways when McNair came on in 2020. It still is, in some real ways. That’s the way of Vivek Ranadive. But I think the collective value of the assets on the roster has increased, you have a premium asset to work with in the 1:4, and 2 All Star capable players on the roster.
The Sacramento Kings, as opposed to a week ago, are alot better off today. That’s fun.
I don’t see the fit on defense with Collins and Sabonis. The D would get even worse. I know BabyG has been posting about Collins’ trades for ages now as well. The fit on offense would be legit, but the D would bleed, especially with Fox as the lead guard. Unless you’re proposing playing Collins at the 3 and finding a stretch defensive big to place next to Sabonis.
Well, several points here.
One, it’s a good thing Tim proposes trades because at least the NBA will approve the deal’s he’s proposing provided both teams agree. Getting the two teams to agree is the trickiest part, as always.
Two, Tim and I aren’t the only one’s that are fans of Collins. I’d bet at least 60% of the fanbase would like the move.
Three, I think you have to start somewhere. Perfect fits are more theory than actuality IMO. There’s what you think you know, and what is actually happening. I think Collins solves more problems than he creates for you and that’s how you start building back towards respectability.
How would you acquire Collins without giving up the #4? Would it involve future picks?
Don’t see any way how the Kings acquire Collins without giving up a future pick. If I have to choose between the 4th pick and a future first, I’m choosing a future protected top 10 first. Collins isn’t good enough, IMO, to get better than that regardless of how Atlanta feels.
I do think Collins have some injury issues hurts his value. He as missed an average of 20 games a year the last four years. That being said, he is a capable starter: good outside shot, vertical threat, good ft shooter, decent rebounder, offers some weak side rim protection, and he has a 25m salary, so if Schlenk was going after a Beal, or a Simmons (Collins/Hunter/FRP), he would be a primary piece I think, rather than just selling him off for parts because of the Hawks weird roster chemistry.
Yeah, I could see ATL going star hunting with Collins as the main piece to get it done.
That’s what they are trying to do Adam. Sam Amick said as much on Brenden’s pod back in February. But I doubt anyone bites on it.
Here’s the thing about Atlanta, Mike. I definitely agree they are going star hunting using Collins as the main bait. I don’t think that gets it done, honestly.
I definitely see a scenario where Atlanta goes after Ben Simmons, but why does Brooklyn do that? Especially since they haven’t seen how Simmons fits in there?
I see it as ATL hoping their preferred scenario works out and if it doesn’t the pragmatic scenario is always out there for you.
I fully expect Simmons to start next season in BKN. Obviously this is fully theoretical and based on a healthy Simmons, but KD, Kyrie and Simmons are kinda tailor made for each other with Kyrie and KD’s elite shooting efficiency and spacing, and Ben’s low-USG, passing and defensive impact. Collins, on the other hand, doesn’t fit especially well with BKN.
Yep, 100% agreed.
A capable starter worth the 4th pick? He can’t really stretch the floor. He’s a terrible 3 pt shooter, and plays No D. He’s talked about on here like some game changer. I don’t see it.
His 3PT% is fine.
Definitely fun, NBA basketball always is if you’re doing it right. I’m always equally a fan of the Kings and NBA. I watch good games all season and a bunch of the good playoff games, especially as it gets closer to finals. Kings jumping is great, too bad 4th seems like a bit of a crapshoot but probably a good idea to see how top 3 pan out before making a deal. I was getting real greedy though when I was watching live and they said we had jumped into top 4, bit of a disappointment to be 4th after that but still really cool. Sharpe intrigues me a lot since he is basically just coming out of high school and was #1 player in country, we need a game changer not just a difference maker. Would love to see some player comps on these prospects for current/former NBA players and a best/worst comp scenario.
There’s several different ways the Kings can go with this draft. I hope they don’t chose someone because they are more NBA Ready as opposed to the player who projects to be a better player longer term. The Kings have to find that player who can potentially be a top 25 player something they don’t have and must have to ever be championship competitive.
Agreed 100 percent. If they are keeping the pick, go for the BPA homerun.
Would you trade #4 for Haliburton?
Trade back to #8 and get John Salmons as well.
You rang..
That’s a really interesting question. I’m trying to find that player who can be a top 20-25 player. Do I have a better chance with the four pick or with Haliburton. I’d probably take Hali but it’s close.
Also, what can I then turn around and trade Fox for?
Yes for sure.
It’d be funny to end up with Hali and Fox is traded and we have Hali/Sabonis with Fox gone which is probably what Monte wanted to begin with.
On a broader note, it would be interesting to know what Fox can bring back in a trade. For example would Houston give up their third pick for him or Detroit their fifth pick. Something to think about and something I would entertain if the possibility was available. I would give Houston Fox, Holmes and Holiday and take Wall off their hands for that third pick and maybe figure out how to swing Wood in the deal.
If you need an expert on swinging wood, you’re looking at him.
I would think you’re more likely to get a lower pick + assets for Fox from a team that has other pieces in place and wants to win now, but badly needs a PG (WAS, NYK, etc.). Something like and I’m not proposing this. Just putting out an example: Fox for Kuzma, KCP, #10 and maybe a protected future 1st or decent 2nd.
I expect Houston to be happy spending another year on the Porter Jr./Green experience while working Sengun, Wood, Chet/Paolo/Jabari into the front court.
And, while anyone can theoretically fit with Cade, I would think Detroit would be looking for guys who’s skillset leans a little more off-ball than Fox’s.
Of course, I’ve been wrong before.
Fox for Barrett, Reddish, Rose, #11? Rose is basically an expiring $14.5m contract this coming season.
I’m not necessarily into that deal, but yeah, I think that’s the kind of deal you’re likely looking at. Rose is a good, experienced one year PG fill in to split time with Davion. Barrett is a reasonable plug in starter with upside that does some things you need. Reddish is a throw-in with some potential upside. Then a pick that wouldn’t likely give NY an impact starter in the short run, but could be interesting for Sac’s build.
I think that’s accurate but just speculating. The trade you threw out with the Wizards is interesting. I’m looking for a way to fetch another type 5 pick in this draft. Don’t know much about Sharpe but if you can believe the reports which is a big if he’s moving up the board. If the Kings can get Murray, Sharpe and Koloko in this draft by giving up Fox, I’d take that.
As for Houston, agree mostly but they’ve got no reason to keep Wood. If you think about it again assuming the reports are accurate, the Sac owner is demanding playoffs and the GM doesn’t want to sacrifice the long term future to meet that demand. A trade with Houston might accomplish both Wood, Wall and the number 3 for Fox, Holmes, Holiday, second round pick. This looks good hypothetically.
Wood, Koloko
Sabonis, Lyles
Barnes, Murray
Sharpe, TD
Wall, Mitchell
I think that’s a reasonable lineup. Obviously, its success will depend A LOT on who Wall is at this point. He hasn’t really been a positive contributor for, what, 4 seasons now? But like the trade above, if you’re moving Fox, I think getting a vet PG to split time with Davion on a short contract (even if it is HUGE) as part of the deal makes sense. And I agree the Rockets will likely trade Wood at some point and in terms of Skillset he’s a pretty good fit on the Kings. My biggest question with the trade is if I think the Rockets would be especially interested in acquiring Fox.
Yeah I have no idea if Houston would be interested in Fox. I might be interested in that Washington deal if you substituted Hachimura for Kuzma.
There are some veteran guards out there to pair with Mitchell if you moved Fox. Schroder, Walker, etc. Again, very curious to know what Fox can bring in a trade. I’d be inquiring.
I’d actually rather have Avdija than Kuzma or Rui. Kuzma was mostly in there to make salaries work.
Yeah I also thought about Avdija but I like your idea of a 3 team trade with Houston and the Wizards.
Idk maybe something like this
Houston – Avdija, Wash number 10, Holmes, Metu, Wash second, Kings second.
Kings get Houston #3, plus Wood, Wizards salary filler,
Wizards – Fox
I wonder if it would be worthwhile to look at bringing in a 3rd team. Like if you brought in the Wizards and sent Fox there, you could send the Wizards #10 to HOU, so they’re just trading down a few picks instead of giving up the 2022 lottery entirely.
I tend to try to look at trade possibilities and judge them based on if every team could reasonably call it a win.
There you go, that’s certainly something to consider. The big question is how do we make the team better and younger without sacrificing our future draft capital.
Yeah, that’s the big question. Unfortunately, I think the most realistic, direct way to another top 5 pick almost certainly includes an unprotected future 1st. And I’d be REALLY loathe to do that for a Sharpe/Murray as much as I like them.
Getting WAY too deep into the weeds of that theoretical trade, I’d be really interested in trying to get Todd included in any deal with the Wizards.
I’ll be happy with any of Murray, Ivey, Sharpe (assuming the 3 big guys go first).
I’ll be disappointed if they trade back.
I’ll be perplexed if they say “pass”.
Trading back to #5 or #6 would guarantee that they’d still have a chance to draft at least 1 of Murray, Ivey or Sharpe.
I cannot wait to see who Anjali selects!
She’s the future GM, may as well let her take a stab at it now.
Her years as a professional baller taught her well.
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