Let me start off by saying that if I was Monte McNair, I would have fired Luke Walton. I think the team’s performance this season justifies a change at the top. I do not buy the excuses that are typically used to rationalize keeping Walton another season.
Sadly, I am not in charge of the Kings. Walton will, according to McNair, coach the team next season.
So is there any hope for the Kings to get better next season? Can Walton redeem himself as coach of the future? As a Walton skeptic, I’m keeping an open mind. There are two factors I think that could point towards better things to come.
1. Walton Used To Be A Good Defensive Coach
The Kings’ main weakness this season was on defense. Any improvement must start there. Beyond a lack of defensive talent, the Kings were one of the worst organized defensive teams I’ve ever seen. The amount of basic communication and rotation errors was just comical at times.
The optimist’s case on defense starts with Walton’s tenure in Los Angeles, where Walton was seen as a good defensive coach and a mediocre offensive one. Under Walton, the Lakers improved defensively every season relative to the rest of the league. Walton inherited a team that was 5.6 points per 100 possessions worse than league average in 2015/2016; they were 4.2 points worse than league average in 2016/2017, 0.6 points better than league average in 2017/2018, and 0.9 points better than league average in 2018/2019, topping out at 12th in defensive efficiency during Walton’s last season in Los Angeles.
Under Walton, the Lakers’ young players such as Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle, and Ivica Zubac all improved on the defensive end, both individually and as a unit. The Kings have plenty of young players such as De’Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, and Marvin Bagley that could use similar defensive development.
Moreover, the Kings late season acquisitions made a noticeable impact on the defensive end, especially after given time to practice and integrate into the team. Delon Wright, Maurice Harkless, Terence Davis, and Damian Jones all filled major holes as defensive roleplayers on a roster that was devoid of quality dedicated defenders. From the March 25 trade deadline to the end of the season, the Kings improved to 24th in defensive efficiency. The Kings’ first opportunity to practice with the new pieces came on April 7th; in games played after that day, the Kings improved to 20th in defense. The Kings’ only other practice this season was on April 24; in games played from that point until the end of the season, the Kings ranked 9th in the NBA in defensive rating.
The hope is that, with the improved defensive depth from the trade deadline, a full training camp, and a more regular practice schedule, the amateur hour errors and “my bads” are ironed out and the Kings can field a credible defense. Don’t get me wrong: every team in the NBA had to deal with these issues, and the point isn’t to give an excuse for Walton’s job this year. The purpose is to project how Walton will do during a “normal” season. Its worth considering whether the extra practice time and training camp will help.
2. The Kings Are Developing Nicely On Offense
The Kings actually had a fairly productive offensive season. At 112.7, their offensive rating ranked 12th in the NBA, a full 1.3 points per 100 possessions better than league average. Last season was the best the Kings had been on offense relative to the rest of the NBA since 2004/2005, when they were 4.4 points per 100 possessions better than average in the last season Chris Webber played in Sacramento. This season was a solid jump from the season prior, where the team ranked 18th in the league and were 0.4 points per 100 possessions worse than league average.
There were several catalysts for the offensive improvement. First and foremost was the development of De’Aaron Fox, who had a career year scoring the ball. Fox’s points per game average rose to a career-high 25.8, and he hit career efficiency highs in effective field goal percentage (52.5%) and true shooting percentage (.565). All while commanding a greater percentage of the offense than he has ever done (31.0 USG%).
Walton deserves some credit for Fox’s development. Walton emphasized Fox as the “head of the snake” early on in his tenure as head coach, and designed an offense to give Fox as much offensive responsibility as possible. Last offseason, Walton personally worked out with Fox in Sacramento to develop his game for the upcoming season. We are seeing the fruits of that work as Fox put up All-Star caliber production, even if the Kings weren’t good enough for him to earn an All-Star spot.
Even beyond Fox, several Kings markedly improved from last year. Richaun Holmes and Harrison Barnes both tallied career-best seasons when accounting for scoring volume and efficiency. Even the much-maligned Buddy Hield improved markedly as an on-the-ball playmaker, setting a career-high 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio, which is more than solid for your shooting guard. Hield performed admirably down the stretch of the season where he functioned as the de facto first option for the Kings, averaging 5.8 assists per game after Fox entered COVID protocol, and pumping it further to 6.4 assists per game after Haliburton injured his knee.
The offense, at least, is headed in the right direction. The hope with Walton is that while Fox continues to develop, Walton can work the same magic with Haliburton to help the rookie jump make the jump from rookie of the year contender to legitimate budding star. Its fair to feel good about Walton’s ability to integrate new talent given how well the pieces acquired at the trade deadline played down the stretch of the season, even as core members of the team had to miss time for one reason or another.
Ultimately, regardless of how fans feel, McNair has hitched at least the next season to Luke Walton. For the Kings to be successful, Walton will have to rediscover his touch as a defensive coach and continue to develop the team on offense. Only time will tell if this choice was wise or if the franchise will continue to spin its wheels.
I like the take.
If someone can make a case that there are 5 coaches in the nba worse than Luke I’ll be optimistic that we can fight for a 10 seed next year.
*Five coaches in the West.
Haha
All the bad coaches have been getting fired. Kings are the last of the hold outs. 😉
No coaches have been fired this week. Maybe some coaches who don’t go far enough in the playoffs will get fired.
Damn, I was hoping when I clicked on the article it was just going to be one word. A big NO and that was the end.
Thanks for breaking the “Walton sucks! This team is forever doomed” narrative. Great take
The odds are very slim Walton and the Kings will become a playoff team/contender. Not talking gimping into that 10 at 30 something wins. That’s useless
It is waaaay more likely The a Kangz will follow Walton the nowhere.
Vivek continues same crap over and over. .
That’s what scares me: This godawful playin joke. NExt year the Kings win 38 games and get the 10 seed. Walton gets extended another 3 years. Mcnair will justify it as progress. Isn’t the Playin the playoffs?
If your a Kings fan…
Hope is a dangerous thing my friend, it can kill a man…
Boycott the franchise.
Don’t go to games.
Don’t buy the merchandise.
We deserve better.
Everyone fans their own way and that’s one’s prerogative. I genuinely am curious as to those that hold this boycott type view (which has become understandably more vocal the last couple days) what your hope for an end result is from these actions? Beyond just the “Well at least it won’t be my money” angle.
I think only about 20% of NBA money is based on tickets…even smaller percentage would be merchandise. TV money is a huge part and that’s already booked and coming in. Even if the building is only half full is the incentive that this makes Vivek want to sell because he is hated and embarrassed? Rest of ownership group forces him out? Force someone else to be the ownership face while he maintains some ownership? Something else?
Think of all the people you see at a Kings game. What percentage of fans at a Kings game could identify who the owner of the Kings is? 40 percent, maybe? How many on top of that could identify moves that would make him a crappy owner (at least on the Bball ops side of things)? Less than 20%? The majority of fans are not TKH commenters who can rattle off the faults of Vivek better than their ABCs. An organized boycott seems like it would need to be really far reaching to have a big effect. Maybe I’m underestimating.
I don’t believe Vivek doesn’t care about winning and the reason the Kings continue to suck is because we as fans tolerate it. He just sucks something bad at the job thus far, with his rumored meddling and mainly the people he has chosen to be in charge. It’s not like the Kings spend at the salary floor each year or won’t spend on coaching (Walton is middle of pack salary wise). Making the playoffs would give additional revenue and would cover the cost of a Walton firing. I legitimately think they believe Walton is the best man at this point for the growth of the team. Disagree as most of us would, it’s entirely possible they are just telling the truth.
In the end the team has gone from being purchased for around 500 million to being worth probably 2 billion. Hangs on until the new national TV deal comes in a few years from now the valuation could be up to 3 billion probably. What is his motivation to move on and get out? He will be more liked when he finally gives up control? I don’t see a ton of goodwill to the Maloofs because they finally sold.
Again everyone deals with disappointment in their team differently…I just wonder what a realistic outcome of a organized “boycott” would result in.
I agree that Vivek wants to win. The problem is that his plan to build a winning organization is absolutely not working, and he believes that everyone but him (and his family) are the problem.
It doesn’t matter who the head coach is when the franchise is this poorly run.
First, Vivek is an asshole who’s ego continues to keep this team down. Doesn’t matter if he wants to win.
Second-this type boycott, protest does work. Saw it with The Washington Football Team. Fans stoped going. Everyone was on Snyder’s case and got GM fired and Snyder backed off. He hated all the criticism and lack of fans.
But unless I’m mistaken, Synder is still there and they haven’t had a .500 season since this attendance drop. Or many before that. If Vivek has been/is the problem which I’m not disagreeing with, I don’t see how this scenario or example proves your point of the boycott effectiveness.
It’s only been a year since Snyder backed off. He gave up control to Rivera. Huge positive change.
They just won the East and Rivera has turned them into a contender.
They are most likely playoff bound and close to a super bowl contender. They played Tampa tougher than any other team in playoffs.
They improved drastically since Snyder gave up control. What doesn’t prove my point.
Well it’s been less than a year since Vivek hired Monte, change in GM just like Washington. They went 7-9 and won a shit division…the equivalent record and accomplishment of Kings getting the play in. They are projected to be about the same this year…. All power rankings have Washington about 20th in the league….again, like the kings. Fitzpatrick is their QB, so not some great future upswing there.
But they do play defense! That’s not like the Kings.
Wrong. I don’t believe, nor have we heard that Vivek has given up power to McNair. In fact, we’ve only heard rumors of the opposite.
Smyder gave Rivers all the power. Washington is much better. They are legit contenders. Rivera got rid of Haskins-Snyder’s baby and all the bullshit. They are building a real team. They made the playoffs. Winning the East at 7/9 is not the pkayin. That’s ridiculous.
And why are you trying to poo poi the idea of protest. It works. I follow Washington. You obviously do not.
Well old thread so only you and I will see this possibly…what the hell.
I’m not poo pooing protest so to speak, I just generally am curious what people hope the end result is from those actions. It’s a personal question, mileage may vary.
I have no idea how you equate 7-9 and winning the NFC East as some great accomplishment, more than the play in. It’s a middling accomplishment for middling to slightly below average teams. Last I checked basic math says that Washington had a 43% win percentage last year. You know who else had a 43% win %…the Kings the last two years. Washington’s current over/under is 8, so most prognosticators think they will be around the same record as last year. Similar to the Kings this year.
Just because circumstances of a crap division last year dictated they “won” the division does not change the fact that 7-9 is average to below average. If they Kings had happened into the 8th seed with a 43% win percentage, I don’t feel like most of us would be jumping up and down.
Washington may very well turn it around…if they get a decent QB, they probably will. How that is different than the Kings is not much. The Kings get a star this draft, they probably turn it around. Neither team has done jack shit so far and most people don’t expect some huge jump from either team in the next year based on current personnel, regardless of who has the “power” which except from those in the building , nobody has any clue.
It’s not like Vivek said, “Yes I pushed Monte in different directions this year and his power is limited”. You can only go on statements, facts or real substantive reports. Which I think recently this year, the Vivek is puppeteering Monte case is pretty weak. Our collective memory of past “Stauskas” moments can easily project a lot of shit into the situation. Nobody knows the real situation in Washington besides those two men probably at this point. Last year was improvement from 3-13, but doesn’t mean progress is linear.
All this said Vivek sucks and so does Snyder. Kings and Washington are very middling to below average teams currently.
Go Cowboys!
To be fair, the final power rankings had the Kings at 25th. I would have also liked for them to win either the Southeast or Southwest division. Meanwhile, we’re stagnant (arguably backsliding if one believes the roster improved from last season) at 31 wins for two years in a row now.
comparing him to Dan Snyder who comes across as a complete creep wow 😉
You are correct…Dan Snyder is an asshole. Not a good person.
The comparison was Vivek ego and meddling-crushing the team.
I mean, someone had to.
Actually, a small market team derives about 50% of revenue from tix, merchant, and suites ! A large markets get so much more from local TV deals ( Lakers 250 million to Kings/Jazz about 25 million ) all share equally in National deals ( about 45 million )!
Yeah, definitely small market would have more effect. Fair point. I still wonder the overall net effect as new huge deal TV coming up and valuations will skyrocket. Not saying it’s impossible, just feels like a difficult push for not a guaranteed satisfactory end result. ð¤·ï¸
This is a good post Wiz and would be a fun article.
From my own perspective, I try to think about what’s in my own hula-hoop and not worry too much about the world outside of that, meaning I worry about my wife, my house, my neighborhood, my city, and my state (ok not really the last one). For me it keeps me sane.
So with the Kings, the last few years I only bought the cheapest tickets up top, then moved down as close as I could get, made a game out of it. I never buy food or drink. I can look in the mirror and be ok with that.
But that game has ended. I won’t be going next year, I’m not curious. I don’t expect my boycott to change anything though, but not going is inside my hula hoop and I can look in the mirror knowing I did what’s best for me. Following this front office has become downright toxic for me and I’m looking to get out now, even if only in small ways. You folks know I’m a BIG Philly fan and I don’t feel any negativity to my teams there, even if they are mediocre, because those franchises appear…..normal.
Fair enough…preserving own sanity should be number one on any Kings fan list ; )
I’m positive about Luke Walton. Positive that the Kings won’t make the playoffs with him as head coach.
But Monte said Luke can get us over the hump.
Kings avoiding the playoffs like:
Well cheers to a bright future for the Kings!
Kings decide to retain Walton.
“Hello, this is the Sacramento Kings Ticket Rep. Would you like to renew your season tickets for next season?”
Hello, this is the Sacramento Kings Ticket Rep. Would you like to renew your season tickets for next season?
I’m not sure what the right answer is about Walton. I am sure however you’ve never played or coached the game and your record is more dismal than Waltons.
Actually, I’m undefeated as an NBA coach. And thanks again for being so darned obsessed with me. It’s adorable!
You’re 0 and 0 as a player or coach at any level and about 1 and 15 as a blogger. You’re getting smarter however, your posts just play to the sheep audience and you equivocate every position you now take. That will keep your record at 1 and 15. By the way, what was that Bagley stat, you know the one that is about as dumb as the Walton record with Lebron that omits all the relevant facts. Of course who needs facts when you just make sure your posts are carefully scripted to the sheep audience. One of these days you might surprise us and take a contrary position. Thumbs up. By the way, Kayte has a Twitter account, why don’t you post your comments about her there. I doubt you have the balls for that.
I don’t have a Twitter account. I find that Twitter is filled with comments such as the one that you just dropped here, and there is absolutely nothing to be gained from partaking in such a discussion.
While I do not Tweet, I do use my real name here. You should try it. It makes you consider what you have written before you press the “post comment” button. It is…ironic…that you accuse someone of lacking balls while hiding behind a screen name.
It has probably been several weeks since I have posted anything regarding your close and personal friend Kayte. Quite frankly you’re the only one keeping it alive.
Go Kings!
Luke Walton isn’t a good NBA head coach. This was a cost saving decision. That’s it. No spin necessary. Let’s not get over this for a while. Let’s fume.
Reason to be optimistic (or the most pathetic stat you’ve ever heard): Luke Walton has the second highest winning percentage as a coach in Sacramento Kings history.
I appreciate the attempt to find a sliver of hope. This must have been a difficult piece for Omer to write (as he suggests in the first paragraph). But this fan base has been beaten up enough by the ownership group(s) over the years. No need to try to talk ourselves into false optimism. Lucy’s pulled the football away 15 times too many.
Uhhhh, under Walton in 2016-17 the Lakers posted the league’s worst defensive rating. So “relative to the rest of the league” is a bit of a stretch. They had nowhere to go but up.
Walton has now coached two different teams, the Lakers in 16-17 and the Kings in 20-21 to the worst defenses in the league. That’s twice in 5 years. No other coach who did that once was a head coach the following year over the past decade.
Walton has no business being a head coach in the NBA, but yeah, he’s taking the Kings to the playoffs.
And this optimism over the late season “defensive improvement” ignores that it was in the garbage time of the season, and that the team was missing the primary culprits behind the horrid defense from earlier in the year.
Unless we really believe that Davis, Wright, Jones, Metu, etc are going to be playing the bulk of the minutes next season.
Adding that unless you look at a tremendously small sample, our net rating really did not improve, because our offense got worse.
Season till April:
Average points scored: 115
Average points against: 119
April on:
Average points scored: 111
Average points against: 115
Of course, no one asks what Walton did to crater our offense and if our offensive drop will carry over to next season. Selectively people hope that the late season improvement against backups by our backups will somehow carry over to the competitive part of next season.
While I would love for that to happen, as Kings fans, we have seen this movie before. Virtually any time we haven’t tanked, we have finished the season well whether with Evans, DMC, and Thornton or Collison, Skal, and WCS.
Right. About all the tail end of the season told me was that Wright is a nice rotational addition, and Davis, Metu and Jones are interesting enough to take a longer look at.
But it didn’t tell me that this team will improve defensively next season.
I also feel confident in saying that if the NBA schedules us for 50 games against the Thunder and they tank again, we might be have a pretty solid defense.
The playoffs thing is because McNair is dead set on moving at least one first, Bagley and another player (Buddy or Barnes) for a star. The question is whether McNair can make that happen, and whether said star improves the team enough to be an actual contender. I’m more convinced than ever that this is their first and only plan.
Agree Carl.
I must be the only one who isn’t getting the newsletters, but when did McNair state or even suggest something as specific as Bagley/first-rounder/Buddy or Barnes as a trade package? I mean, it seems reasonable enough, but has McNair even implied anything so unambiguous?
And yes, I’m basing this on “dead-set.”
My belief. I tried to read Monte’s mind, but he’s got one of those Magneto helmet things. Plus, I’m more Spackler than Stewart.
I think the main reason for optimism is the vast majority of NBA coaches don’t make a ton of difference. I don’t think Walton is going to coach the team to greatness any more than I think he’s going to hold them back from greatness. In they grand scheme of things Walton is probably worth something in the range of 0 to -3 wins added.
They don’t? Lots of bad coaches with bad teams. Lots of good coaches with good teams.
Just look at impact of coaches like Tibs or the switch in Atlanta or Doc Rivers in Philly etc etc etc
Not to mention perennial winners with Paap etc.
Thats 4 out of 30.
I have to make a lost? I was giving you a sample.
Kerr
Monty Williams
Budenholzer
Nurse
Malone
Snyder
Rivers
Paap
Tibs
spoelstra
McMillan
etc etc on positive side
My overall point is coaches do make a difference in good or bad record/team.
There are coaches fired every year for a reason. Because they don’t win enough. They are replaced by coaches who win more and stick around or less and get fired.
Coaches of winning clubs are kept for a reason. Because they get the team to win.
Seems like, to me the coach, has the biggest impact on wins/loses. After players….
“Coaches are fired every year for a reason”. Many reasons, one of them being it is a lot easier to replace one person (coach) making $5-million/year and eat the salary) than to fire 4 or 5 guys (players) each making $1- to 20- million/year and eat their salaries AND likely pay the luxury tax on some part of that. I agree that Walton is a 0 to -3 wins type coach. I am not sure how many of the coaches listed aboe are say +3 to +5 win coaches. I would have let Walton go, but I do understand the idea of there being some extra wins outside the coaching and the possibility of Walton becoming a +2 to – 2 coach. 🙂
Don’t forget the coveted “win more and get fired” kind of coaches.
I would agree that a lot of coaches are average and get the wins expected based on the roster. And a lot of them don’t really get exposes until they are in a 7 game series against a better coach.
However, there are certainly a lot of coaches who cycle through the league who are below average and who get fewer wins than the talent dictates.
Given Walton’s performance with the Lakers, performance here, and based on how many of his players almost immediately improved after leaving – I am concerned he is below average and hurting us more than helping.
Stealing from my own Tweets when I was throwing shade at Walton during the season:
Dropping these for no special reason:
D’Angelo Russell: NBA All Star
Brandon Ingram: NBA All Star
Julius Randle: NBA All Star, #11 VORP
Jordan Clarkson: Likely 6th man of year
Brook Lopez: NBA All Defense
LeBron James: GOAT?
Weird how they all underperformed 2016-19 in LA.
For fun, here’s Brook Lopez’s 5 year VORP:
2.1
2.4
1.3 <- Mystery coach
2.4
1.9
And LeBron:
7.5
6.7
8.2
4.9 <- Mystery coach
6.1
Wonder who was coaching these vets when they experienced an unexplained drop in productivity?
Obviously it’s not fair to pin all of this on Walton. Randle for example has worked very hard and greatly expanded his game since leaving LA. I think Walton deserves some blame for his system and not using Randle well. But to be clear, I am also not implying that Randle should have been say a top 20 NBA player in LA had Walton used him right. Randle deserves a ton of credit for working hard and growing as a player.
I think there’s some lack of nuance there. Like he had the first 4 players as rookie – 3rd year players and Ingram and Randle started their ascensions in that last season in LA. How much they underperformed relative to where they should have been is hard to say since they were in their early developmental years. And that VORP is a cumulative stat that’s basically BPM x MP. So LeBron’s dip in VORP was entirely a factor of his injuries since his BPM was in-line with his career norms. Lopez definitely had a down year. He played the fewest minutes per game of his career that season. Because of his role and success with the Bucks, people tend to forget that he was seen mostly as an albatross his last couple years in BKN. It wasn’t until his big contract ran out with the Lakers and Budenholzer turned him into a 3-and-D specialist that people started seeing him as a quality player again.
All that said, I always think it’s funny when I get put in a position where it looks like I’m defending a position I don’t really hold. I think Luke is a bad coach. I think coaches basically follow a normal bell distribution and the most generous view would put him at the extreme low edge of the fat part of the curve. I just think the “he missed the playoffs with LeBron” aspect of the story is blown a bit out of proportion. If that team had a normal amount of health, it’s almost certainly makes the playoffs and this specific narrative goes poof.
But I also think this is a 35-win (+/- 5) roster. As much as I wish the Kings had a different coach, I don’t think Walton was more of a limiting factor than the lack of talent/fit.
Well you just be me to it…had the same points and perspective : )
I’m pretty much in line with BHE on this. I think that at any given time, there are no more than a half dozen coaches that are worth tangible net wins, and there are roughly a half dozen coaches that are worth tangible net losses, with the balance of the coaches being close to a net zero. Walton is either in the lower half dozen or at/near the bottom of the net zero list, in my opinion. Given his features, benefits and upside, I would prefer taking my chances on Vantertool, Unseld Jr., Udoka, etc.
I acknowledged that some of the growth was fully player drive and not fair to pin on Luke, but I think you are letting him off too easy (though fair points on VORP).
LeBron BPM
2016: 9.0
2017: 7.6
2018: 8.7
There’s probably a whole lot of data and narrative we can create, but that is a material dip. I’m not sure you can call it in-line with his career norms.
Again, there was some narrative he was overpaid and he wasn’t a star or go-to player as he was making $22M against a smaller cap figure (a bit of the same debate we have with Barnes). But again, his BPM:
Lopez BPM
2016: 2.3
2017: 0.9
2018: 2.2
The Nets, Lakers, and Bucks all used him differently and yet he was still extremely impactful on the basketball court with both Kenny Atkinson and Bud, but his productivity cratered with Walton.
While I agree it’s not fair to look at Randle this season and expect that Walton should have gotten that out of him (credit Randle for growth). I also don’t really think it’s true to say it was a natural progression or act like other coaches couldn’t have done better.
Ingram BPM
2018 LA: -1.2
2019 LA: -2.0
2020 NO: 2.1
Randle BPM
2016 LA: -0.9
2017 LA: -0.6
2018 NO: 1.5
Russell BPM
2016 LA: -2.9
2017 LA: -0.8
2018 BK: -1.2
2019 BK: 3.4
Clarkson BPM
2016 LA: -1.6
2017 LA: -2.5
2018 LA/CLE: 0.1
2019 CLE: -0.5
2020 CLE/UTA: 1.1
Most of these guys developed pretty quickly away from Walton. Whether it was minutes, system, or player development – it’s not as simple a player like IT on the Kings where he was developing very well and then continued to once he left.
Isaiah Thomas BPM
2013 SAC: 0.8
2014 SAC: 3.2
2015 PHO/BOS: 3.2
2016 BOS: 4.3
2016 BOS: 6.7
So again, I am not blaming all of this on Walton. But at a minimum it’s really hard to argue that he was able to get any of these guys playing their best or was using them well. The quantitative matches the qualitative things we have heard from Lakers fans. And at worst, he actively depressed the value of some of these players and mismanaged them.
All of that’s fine with me. Like I said, at no point did I say Luke was a good coach. Though I’m not quite getting your LeBron numbers. If we’re looking at BPM his past 8 seasons go (using 8 seasons because that’s when his BPM came down from his mid-career peak):
8.8
7.1
9.0
7.6
8.7
8.0 (w/ Walton)
8.4
7.5
That 8.0 with Walton doesn’t look like an outlier to me.
Fair point on LeBron, just double checked and for some reason had grabbed earlier data (from CLE).
But overall, it’s not just that he isn’t a good coach, he seems to be at least a below average coach.
And the consequence is that I would be nervous trading Bagely right now for pennies on the dollar (his likely value), because I would not be surprised if over the next season or two, he developed and grew his game under another coach.
If Bagley is healthy, I expect him to be what I always expected him to be. A useful rim-runner rebounder that can attack close-outs and have a pretty okay outside shot. Basically a fringe starter on a similar impact level as guys like Holmes. Which is more valuable than what I think you could get for him in a straight up trade. So I wouldn’t trade him either. But my reasoning doesn’t have much to do with Luke.
Fair enough, reasonable minds can disagree. I don’t even think we are that far apart here. I just have a slightly lower opinion of Walton and his ability to decrease our performance.
Sounds like you have a higher opinion of his ability to decrease our performance. Isn’t that not what you didn’t say?
Yeah, sounds like we’re just off by minor degrees of badness.
Would you two knock it off with your nerd fight, please? Us rubes in the peanut gallery are jealous and are tired of you know-it-all’s.
That Lakers team was 28-27 with LeBron playing. I haven’t looked at the playoff cutoff that season, but they were average at best even with LeBron.
As I pointed out elsewhere. They were 15-8 when LeBron, Ball & Ingram all played. They were quite good when at full strength. With just LeBron and Ball or Ingram they were closer to a fringe playoff team (20-14 & 19-15 respectively).
Fair points. I would say injuries are part of the game, and LeBron dragged way worse Cleveland teams a lot further.
This is the best post I’ve read in weeks. The marginal difference between NBA coaches is quite small and the win loss records prove that. Just take a look a Kerr’s tenor with the Warriors. He goes from a championship coach, to having one of the worst records in the league then back to mediocrity. His record tracks perfectly with his rosters
I think we can safely say he’s at least a -4, considering the team he was handed.
I disagree. The right coaches can make a difference. Look at the Hawks under Lloyd Pierce vs under Nate McMillian. Nobody would say Nate McMillian is on the level of coach Popovich who we know would improve any team but he’s improved that Hawks record immensely when he took over.
11.5 million to make him walk?
In a year in which the team has lost 100 million due to COVID, what did we really expect?
This team is making history next year, because the playoffs will once again be out of sight, all we can truly hope for is a sale, and for Vivek to get back to what he’s good at.
wait, what was he good at again? ð¤
And I don’t even understand how a stretch provision is relevant. It’s not as if coach salaries count against the cap, so just cut him a check from the rainy-decade fund, and get him the hell out of here.
I mean, it depends on what your benchmark is.
They could reach the play-in. I think for many of the stockholm syndrome Kings fans, that would be success.
It will be difficult for this team not to improve from this season.
Is that enough to reach the play-offs or play-in? Houston is still building its foundations, OKC too. If Minny is healthy they can take off, but they can implode as well. NO is hard to read, but with Zion and Ingram, they will likely be a tough opponent. SA may collapse, but we’ve been saying that for years. Lakers may implode if LBJ retires, for instance (one can hope). And another team may be ravaged by injuries.
But let’s be realistic and not kid ourselves.
Many things can go wrong too.
And if we are realistic, the most likely outcome is that some things will go right and some things will go wrong. And that will most likely mean that we will once again be stuck in nowhere’s land; no play-offs and a bad draft pick…
To me, the biggest issue is the play in game being success now. The bar is so low it’s practically impossible to not get in.
I don’t want, nor am I satisfied with finishing in a spot that wasn’t the playoffs until last year and getting run.
It’s far too easy for Vivek and the idiot brigade to claim success while continuing to do the wrong thing at every turn.
Totally agree.
The bar is so low it’s practically impossible to not get in.
Great point, and challenge accepted!
One more thing; the players should be embarrassed and absolutely pissed. Instead I get that “we’re almost there and we’re good enough”-vibe.
NO, YOU’RE NOT! At this moment, you are a bad, underachieving bunch of losers.
Prove me wrong, Fox. Actually fight through a frickin screen for once in your life. And then do it again.
Talking about cutting 9-game losing streaks into 2-7 ones? How pathetic can you be? Is that the mindset of a contender? It is clear to me why he loves Walton.
I’ve been calling for trading Fox for a while. Now I am certain; he’s no franchise player-material.
Not to mention, Barnes recent comments of players needing to hold themselves accountable are the same broken record we’ve heard from players & coaches a number of times over the past two seasons. Yet, they don’t. I like Barnes, but he’s reduced to throwing out meaningless cliche phrases here.
This team is a walking cliche. How many times do I have to hear Walton say; “I am not sure, I have to go back and look at the tape/film. You can be sure he’s going to say this after almost every post game presser.
You were the echo to may earlier post. Players like FOx and Hali are endorsing Walton? They talk about how much they love this guy? At least Hali recognizes this season was unacceptable. Fox, on the other hand is not a Dog, Alpha, and Zero Mamba mentality. it’s clear by his comments and it’s quite disconcerting. So, this is the guy going to lead us back to the playoffs? Option Number One on a playoff team? I would love to be proved wrong. But, going into season 5, I don’t see it yet.
I don’t care.
If this was McNair’s choice retaining Walton he better damn try and improve the personnel on this team. Our offense is okay and could possibly be better with another year of familiarity with the system. The problem is the defense. I know they brought in Rex Kalamian as our defensive coordinator but seeing how bad our defense is this year, could they try and find a new defensive coach? Or just find better players that would actually play defense. It could just be me finding some positives out of all this but if they could make some drastic leap in that area, we might actually try and compete for the playoffs next year.
For that to happen, Mcnair and the FO better upgrade the roster and the coaching staff if they would like Luke to succeed as a HC.
As the current roster consists of some players who don’t know how to play defense…(i.e. Bagley and Hield)…once they being traded away (I don’t mind selling low) , the team defense should be better..
And we definitely need to add some wing that can play some tough defense at the 3pt line…
I like the addition of Harkless and Louis King, their length may improve the 3pt line defense a little bit…but more talent needs to be added….
i.e. Drafting Kuminga in July………..
Kuminga is going top 5. We blew that one unless we get serious lotto luck
Kuminga is actually my #2 behind Cunningham. If we get lucky and get the #2 pick, I’m all-in on Kuminga. Unfortunately, I don’t think we can strike lightning in a bottle twice so I’ll set my expectations on us picking 10th and that would be Alperen Sengun! Yup, I’ll keep beating that drum until the draft.
If we cannot get Kuminga, I am leaning more and more to Kai Jones. The guy has explosive potential! He can shoot and defend all over the floor. He just needs to polish everything up and watch out league. And he will blend nicely with Fox and Ty.
Alperen Sengun is a good player, I like him as a screen setter, good low post footwork, good toughness, only 6’9 though as a center? A 2nd round pick for Sengun would be good.
Sengun won’t last the second round. Kai Jones reminds me a lot of Mo Bamba. Long, athletic, can shoot from the outside, really raw and needs to put in a ton of weight. And they play for the same school! Jones could be something special but he needs to be in an environment that would allow him to untap that potential.
Sengun is listed at around 6’9 – 6’10 but I think he can grow a couple of inches more. About to turn 19 in a couple of months and is really skilled for his age. Has legit handles for his size, has a sweet stroke from the outside, excellent playmaker from the post, has good mobility which I think can let him become a good defender in the NBA and has an array of post moves. I watched a few YT clips and I’m really impressed. He is definitely a lottery pick and ultimately I think he could go in the top 10 which is perfect for the Kings draft at around the 8th-10th spot.
Kai is actually a lot more like young Richaun Holmes. He’s much more athletic than Bamba. Not to mention being a couple inches shorter and having, and this is an estimate, about a half foot shorter wingspan. As such he isn’t as impactful an inside presence as Bamba in terms of rebounding or rim-protection. He’s more in the Holmes, Bagley, Metu mold of a high energy, athletic rim-running PF/small ball C with some switchability and some shooting upside.
Jones is potential. Upside shooter but thin and unpolished. 8-10, IMO is way too high for him.
In second 10: Barnes ( almost certainly the 5 or 6th pick), then SG’s Moody, K. Johnson and Booknight. At 10: Mitchel, Sengun, Giddey, Wagner and then K. Jones. That’s the second tier IMO. I actually like Sengun or Giddey-both are reaches/or guesses but high reward types. Both 18. I do hope for a ping pong ball. Better options.
Don’t worry. I’ve already solved it.
Trade 1: SAC & HOU
2021 SAC 1st (#9) for Kenyon Martin, Jr. + 2021 POR 1st (#22) + 2021 MIL 1st (#24)
Trade 2: SAC & IND
Barnes for Turner
Trade 3: SAC & TOR
Hield + Bagley + 2022 SAC 1st (lightly protected) for Siakam
Trade 4: SAC & OKC
2021 POR 1st (#22) for Roby + 2021 OKC 2nd (#34)
Pre-draft base roster
Fox/Wright
Haliburton/Ramsey
Martin, Jr./Woodard
Siakam/Roby
Turner
I like it especially trades 1, 2, and 3. Now someone find Monty Mcnair’s email and send this to him!
Out of all the scenarios, the most realistic that could happen would be 1 and 2.
Curious if that trade does happen, who do you pick for 22 and 24?
You’d be happy to hear the most recent big board (obviously different than a mock draft) from The Athletic had Sengun at 24! I certainly don’t expect him to go that late, but there are always a couple guys mocked in the lottery that fall into the 20s. As for who I would pick… Well, here’s a list of guys that go 22 or later in the latest Athletic Mock Draft that I would be interested in in no particular order:
Duarte – versatile 3-and-D wing
Prkacin – Big athletic wing with shooting and handling upside
Sharpe – Old school bruising C with high level processing and passing skills
Mann – High BBIQ creator combo guard.
Todd – Long stretch 4 with good fluidity (I think he’s really being underrated)
Aldama – Interesting facilitating big with long arms and good touch.
David Johnson – Big, athletic combo guard with good passing chops and a shot.
Herb Jones – Big, versatile, ball-handling wing that has finally shown some shooting growth
Kessler Edwards – I have no idea why this guys isn’t in more 1st round mocks. Long athletic wing that plays defense and has shot 40% from three and expanded his game over 3 years in college.
Preston – All BBIQ all the time from a 6’5 PG.
Vrenz Bleijenbergh – 6’10 shooter and facilitator.
Gui Santos – 6’9 athletic wing with aggression and a nice shot.
Chris Smith – 6’9 with all the tools. Hasn’t put it together. Probably never will. More of an interesting UDFA.
Obviously, most of them would be huge reaches at 22, but that’s a quick list of guys generally slotted later than that that I’m interested in at the moment.
Edwards doesn’t get looked at because he’s older, which is disgusting because he’s only 21.
That and playing for a non-Gonzaga member of the WCC
Yeah, it’s baffling to me how players older than twenty are considered to have lost value. Tim Farking Duncan played four years of college ball, and was 100% ready to contribute when he got drafted. Obviously, everyone can’t be Tim Duncan, but paying some kid for an extra year or two when he’s not done developing physically, and isn’t likely to contribute seems like a pretty dumb business model.
There are a lot of great college coaches, let them do the work of creating an NBA-ready player so you have a better idea of what you’re getting when you call that name.
I’m actually a huge believer in focusing on upperclassmen over non-elite 18-year-olds. I mean, sure, if we’re talking about the Cunninghams and Mobleys and Suggs then you go with them. But once you hit the mid-1st and later, I think upperclassmen and Euros with pro experience are generally a smarter way to go. A big reason is that a lot of those non-elite 18-year-old projects, if they DO breakout, aren’t necessarily going to do it on their rookie deal/for their first team.
No way Sengun drops to 24. The guy almost got a triple double a couple of days ago.
Out of your list Prkacin, Todd and Edwards are the guys that intrigue me the most. I actually have Todd as the player that I want the Kings to draft for their 2nd round pick. Was really impressed with his time in the G-league. Although he is still very raw and needs a lot of development.
I think Sengun will be interesting. There are going to be a lot of questions about if he’ll be able to do what he does against NBA defenders. I think Sabonis’s success will definitely help his case. He does show an ability to facilitate and promise on his outside shot, but 80% of his success is good ol’ post scoring and rebounding. The question is going to be if a 6’9-6’10 C (he may grow, but I don’t think anyone should project him in a way that depends on it) with average athleticism will be able to succeed that way. I think a team that really believes in his ability to pass and develop his shot will look at him in the second half of lottery. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of teams have him closer to 20-30 on their boards based on his lack of ideal C size & athleticism, and the fact that a large percentage of his game is old school post stuff. I’m not saying that’s the right way to look at it. Personally, I’d probably put him somewhere in the 15ish range. Give or take a few slots.
it is ironic that a key component of your trade #1 is a guy- Martin- Kings drafted and traded. (Like Gary Trent)
I don’t like trading down all that much. and 22 + 24 do not = 9. Stars available at 9. Way less so at 22 and 24, IMO.
I do like the Belgium guy in the second round (Vrenz Bleijenbergh )
I like the thought process but I don’t think Houston and Indiana go for trades 1 and 2. I do however think trade 3 is a possibility and one that was previously proposed. I think you can follow that up and trade this years first #9 and our second to OKC for Roby, Moses Brown and Maledon. Sign Muscala near a veteran minimum and Holmes at 3 years 30 mil team option year 3. I’d also try to sign Davis and Harkless to a team friendly contracts like 2 years 10 mil.
Fox/Wright/Maledon
Haliburton/Davis
Barnes/Harkless
Siakam/Roby
Holmes, Brown, Muscala
There are a couple names I would love for the KIngs to chase. Bobby Portis(Who plays nasty) and Gary TrentJr. fits the time lineline. I wonder if the Raptors are going to lock him up. Obviously, the Kings will have to free up some salaries. MItchell Robinson is another guy. Maybe, Knicks would take on Barnes or Buddy’s salary.
Fox, Hali, Trent, Portis, and Mitchell sounds pretty good.
It’s going to take alot more than Bagley, Hield and a Mid First fot Siakam.
I don’t want Turner. The guy is massively overrated. I rather keep Barnes.
The other trades I can see.
I may just found out something that should made us feel a little bit better…
Casey signed a longer and more expensive contract than Walton….and their record are worse than us……
However, the Pistons tanked hard, and should pick a good player in coming draft…then they will rise again…….
Casey has been NBA Coach of Year ! A proven commodity -Walton not so much !
That’s not what people said when he hired on in Toronto. Most wanted him fired after his first year on the job.
Let’s see 35,000,000 divided by five equals 7,000,000. Seems like the annual average salary at that amount is all that it includes.
Which stage of grief is this again? Bargaining?
If I counter with anger, can we split the difference and settle at denial?
While I realize you are pointing out the optimists case and we can 100% argue that part of the reason for our poor defense was personnel and that as our defensive personnel improves, so should our defense regardless of the coach – this assertion about the Lakers seems to leave out a lot of context.
It wasn’t as if the Lakers had a fairly stable roster and over time Walton’s coaching and development led to better defense. In reality, Walton took over a very young team devoid of defensive talent and the Lakers added LeBron James, Brook Lopez, KCP, Tyson Chandler, JaVale McGee, Caruso, and Rondo.
Now, again, this is some of the reason why the Lakers defense had been bad. It’s not 100% fair to blame that all on Walton as their personnel in his first year would have been a bottom 10 defense with any coach. But unless we are about to go acquire LeBron and a DPOY candidate, I don’t think we can count on Walton improving our defense like LA.
The most twisted way this is a positive is if Monte has made this concession and in turn bought more autonomy in decisions he thinks are more important in exchange. If this compromise allows him more authority over other factors he might not think its worth disrupting the likable coach over other priorities. I wouldn’t be shocked if he comes from the Morey school who often has alluded to most coaches being replacement value. He might be choosing not to die on that hill.
That said that isn’t how a competent franchise should operate. Collectively the fact that Walton is out of his depth should be agreed upon by consensus. And if this is a compromise, what really is Monte getting in exchange. All season his and the franchises rhetoric has been playoffs oppose to bottoming out. The wrong decision, but regardless a direction that doesnt leave him a lot of isolated decisions he can control. The draft and free agency are largely dictated by others. Possibly in being given the green light in trading certain players? Speculation.
Regardless this is playground politics for a market and franchise unable to afford being children in decisions. Even suggesting this line of thinking demonstrates how deep the problems are. The team in entirety is a mess possibly incomparable to any of its league counterparts.
Maybe the NBA schedule gods will have mercy on us and give us a murderer’s row to start the season. I want to see:
Home and away with Phoenix
@ Utah
@ Denver
Lakers
Clippers
@ Brooklyn
@ Knicks
@ Philly
@ Milwaukee
Denver
Warriors
That should be enough to start 0-12, right? A home blowout to the Warriors should be just the thing to get under the dismissive little chap’s skin.
Problem is this team never does what you want them to do. If that is our schedule, I can almost guarantee we would start out 6-6 to get everyone hyped.
And then go 2-7 against the Pistons, Magic, Cavs, Rockets, and Thunder.
The Kings would go 8-4, lose to the Magic and start a 9 game losing streak. If that losing streak is cut to 2-7 though, we will be all good.
The media will point out that the 0-12 isn’t so bad considering the opponents we’re playing and Bagley being out with an injury.
And COVID. And India really wasn’t THAT long ago. And the players still aren’t over the weirdness of the bubble. And how young the team is. Oh, how incredibly young they are!
Yeah, those excuses need to end.
I can find some things to be optimistic about with Walton. Ability to resign Holmes to a reasonable contract. Continued player development. Just hope it results in more wins.
Short answer? No.
Long answer? Fuck no.
I just listened to CD’s interview with Monte. Did any of the local “journalists” yesterday or today ask Monte straight up abt 2 – 9 game losing streaks and the 2nd worst defense in history? Seems like their was a lot of tap-dancing with the questions…
Did Dave ask those questions? Generally, he’s been a little more direct than the rest of them, though he doesn’t press, from what I’ve listened.
He was a little more direct, but it seemed very general to me (ie. “does this team someone to kick them in the a$$ when things are going bad?”)
Fox would have forced his way outof Sac if Thibs was the coach. Some players can’t handle the truth.
CD and the rest of them at press conferences:
Most of these journalists Ham, Jones, etc are never going to write or report anything objective about the Kings. It’s all skittles and F In Rainbows. They are too afraid of losing that paycheck.
Or…..vivek and monte are playing 5d chess and keeping luke to keep the tank alive for victor wembanyama or emoni bates.
I’ve never heard the NBA talking heads or the national media label Walton as a terrible coach. The only place I’ve seen or heard that narrative is TKH. Walton’s not the problem, the problem is a consistent PF and the depth. The depth was addressed at the trade line, now it’s up to McNair to address the PF position and/or tweak the roster to give Walton a more competitive squad.
The NBA talking heads don’t talk much about the Kings or Walton at all.
You havent? Because I Have: Let me go down the list of NBA media who do not think Walton is a good coach: Jalen Rose, David Jacoby, Ryan Rusillo, Hollinger and Duncan ranked Walton 29th out of 30 NBA coaches in a current podcast, Bill Simmons, David Locke, Wes Goldberg, Sam Vecenie, Zach Lowe, Brian Windhorst, Howard Beck, Chris Mannix, Ben Golliver, Michael Pina(SI), Adrian Wojnarowski, Zach Lowe, Jonathan Givony, Kelly IKO(The Athletic) MIcheal Scotto(Hoops Hype), Adam Stanco and Noah Coslov(Rejecting the Screen), just to name a few. I listen and read about NBA experts plenty. NOT 1 had anything positive to say about Walton’s coaching.
But Monte’s keeping him for basketball reasons! I never really considered that the guy who gets the Kings GM job might simply be the guy who is most willing to provide cover for Vivek publicly.
My response to this entire discussion
Nah, Luke Walton sucks donkey balls. That’s all he knows or understands.
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