Harrison Barnes has led the Sacramento Kings in scoring for three of their first four games in the 2021-22 NBA season. The only night he didn’t lead the points category, Wednesday in Phoenix, the veteran hit a game-winning shot at the buzzer to secure the victory.
Barnes began his 10th season in the league on fire by notching a career-high 36 points at Portland’s Moda Center in the opener. That performance against the Trail Blazers included an unforgettable third-quarter where Barnes went 6/6 from three before his final tally read 10/19 from the field and 8/11 from three.
Throughout these first four games, Barnes is averaging an absurd 26.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 2.3 assists while converting 51.4 percent from the field and 51.5 percent from three on significantly more attempts than years prior.
After a career night in Portland, Luke Walton shared that heading into this season he specifically spoke with the 6’8″ forward regarding increasing his aggressiveness.
“One of the things I’ve challenged Harrison on all summer and even last year, is we need him to be aggressive, and I don’t mean that as go one on one and take a bunch of shots, but I’ve challenged Harrison. I want him getting eight threes up a night. He’s a very good shooter and there’s no reason he can’t make those shots,” Walton said. “We needed all of those points tonight and that’s really how we want to see Harrison playing all the time. Some nights they’ll go, some nights they won’t, but we definitely want him taking those shots and he was a big reason why we won tonight.”
Asking Harrison Barnes to increase his field goal attempts rings eerily similar to when the forward moved from the fourth option in Golden State to a primary focus with the Dallas Mavericks a few years ago. That experiment clearly went poorly, as it concluded with Dallas sending Barnes to Sacramento for Justin Jackson and Zach Randolph in February of 2019.
So what would make the increase in usage different this time around? Obviously, Barnes is a significantly more developed player at this point in his career, but the context of these shots compared to his Dallas tenure is the crucial differentiator.
It comes down to the role Barnes has been assigned and his surrounding roster. During his first season with the Mavericks (2016-17), Barnes attempted an average of 16.2 field goals with a conversion rate of 46.8, which was translated to a (still) career-high 19.2 points a night.
Barnes recorded five more points on average than any other rostered Maverick, with a then 38-year-old Dirk Nowitzki trailing him. His efficiencies were about average, but they were hindered by the fact that a mere half of his made field goals were assisted by teammates, 50.1 percent to be exact.
If you’ve watched much Kings basketball over the last few seasons, you know that Harrison Barnes isolations and post-ups are not exactly an ideal way to run an NBA offense. We have the benefit of hindsight now, but that upside was seen as possible when Barnes was just 24-years-old. So those were Barnes primarily play types in Dallas, which continued in the following season as lottery guard Dennis Smith Jr. was brought into the mix.
His 50.1 percent of assisted makes somehow dipped down to 46.9 percent in the next season and minimal schematic changes took place. Harrison Barnes, the crafty but far from quick, shifty, or deceptive forward, was being asked to create over half of his buckets on his own accord.
Ironically, the Dallas Mavericks grew ready to move on from the “mistake” of that Harrison Barnes contract the same year they acquired a true primary initiator in Luka Doncic. Barnes carried a shaky on-court reputation coming into Sacramento after disappointing (relative to expectations) time under Rick Carlisle in Texas.
The Sacramento Kings clearly had a different vision for the skillset of Harrison Barnes that went beyond his veteran experience and leadership. As a team that had been desperate for wing talent for years at this point, his two-way versatility at 6’8″ was intriguing. They also could limit his offensive responsibility alongside the offensive weapons already in place of De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Marvin Bagley, and Bogdan Bogdanovic.
After the trade, Barnes went from averaging the second most shot attempts in Dallas with a usage rate of 23.7 percent, to a 16.3 percent usage rate in Sacramento while trailing the four aforementioned Kings players in attempts throughout his 28 games in purple.
The Kings successfully returned Harrison Barnes to the low-usage role he filled with the Warriors so long ago that required limited amounts of self-creation. In 2019-20, 62.2 percent of Barnes’s made field goals were assisted, a 15 percent jump from his final full season with the Mavericks. That number subsequently jumped to 67.7 percent in 2020-21.
Now, recently removed from what many would consider the best season of Harrison Barnes’ career, he runs into another situation of being pushed to reach another level of offensive contribution.
We’ve seen Harrison Barnes embrace that wish from the jump with two games of double-digit three-point attempts and three showings of 18 or more field goal attempts. Barnes has show a higher volume in his first four games than he did in any of the 58 games he played in last season.
Against Utah, the UNC product attempted 20 shots on the night, which is the most he’s gotten up while wearing a Sacramento uniform. Somehow, an ever-higher percentage of his made field goals this season have been assisted by teammates as he currently sits at 69.4 percent – a point Barnes had not reached since his time in Golden State at age 23.
Four games obviously is an extremely small sample size, but the primary takeaway is that while Harrison Barnes is being asked to increase his volume of attempts, his offensive role is not fluctuating. Instead, he is simply being asked to trust himself more from beyond the arc with a set number of eight three-pointers as an average goal to aim for.
So far, this has been successfully accomplished with an increased willingness to let it fly, what looks like it may be a faster release, and a pre-built understanding of when to cut off-ball or attack closeouts.
Per Cleaning the Glass, Harrison Barnes is attempting the lowest percentage of mid-range shots of his career. Everything has been classic Moreyball: at the rim or beyond the arc.
Harrison Barnes’s current conversion rate of 51.4 percent from the field and 51.5 percent from three will inevitably cool down notably as will his scoring average of 26.8. Although it doesn’t seem out of the question to see Barnes contributing upwards of 20 points per night for the first time in his career.
If Barnes were to maintain his 17.5 attempts a night with 8.3 of those coming from beyond the arc, his Sacramento averages of 47.4 percent from the field and 39.6 percent from three would equate to 20.2 points per game.
Barnes has flashed the ability to remain efficient on an increased volume of similar looks before. In 2020-21, he recorded nine games with seven or more attempts from three and managed to shoot 57 percent in those games while Sacramento won seven of the nine.
I’ve yet to mention that Barnes also seems to have a new desire to chase rebounds. He’s snagged nine rebounds on two occasions and 15 boards once over Sacramento’s first four games. Barnes tallied nine or more rebounds on just 11 occasions last year.
Significant progress in his shooting volume from deep while remaining efficient would tremendously increase the forward’s value for both Sacramento and other organizations in negotiations.
Year-10 may be the year that Harrison Barnes averages 20 points in the NBA while still primarily serving as a complement to the initiators around him. Three-and-D players are highly sought after in the modern NBA, especially with 6’8″ size who are efficient on high-volume from downtown.
Harrison’s reaction to this article:
He actually looked pretty pumped in the video after the game winner! I was surprised.
I guess he’s no longer a stoic!
Is the TKH community supposed to conclude from this article that Aaron Nesmith and a Boston’s mid first last year would not have been a good deal for Harrison Barnes last trade deadline?
Fun fact I didn’t know until looking: Nesmith has not scored this year. 0/10 FG, 0/9 3’s and 0 pts in 27 minutes. Yikes.
I think it was more about cashing out on a maximized asset as opposed to letting his value drop. It seems, however, that Barnes has taken it up another notch, but I still don’t think this team makes the playoffs. I believe the “trade Barnes at the deadline” chatter will happen once again to the tune of a possible higher return, if Barnes continues at this pace. For me, I think it is pretty clear he is at, or near, his peak as he approaches 30 years of age.
This Kings still have him for another season after this, so they have time, but then he is a UFA. If the Kings are still floundering outside the playoffs come next season, do you let him free agency and hope he returns or move him before that. The Kings do have time.
I feel it simply comes down to if the Kings think that Barnes will be a key cog on the next good Kings playoff team. If so, keep him. If not, move him for a maximized return before his value diminishes. Thank goodness that is Monte’s job and not ours.
That all makes sense in terms of where they are at and part of next decent team, I get that sentiment…but I think it should serve as a reminder as to how we as fans perceive value at times of team frustration and does a return actually move you into a positive direction. Not just moving pieces for the sake of movement. Also if your maximized asset nets you a mid first and Nesmith, doesn’t feel like that’s a “we can’t let this deal pass us by” opportunity. Something similar probably available anytime over the next year plus.
I think the suggested deals for Barnes around here last year for the most part would have been mistakes even if he was still playing at last years level, which he likely will regress too. By keeping him you gave this team at least a chance to be something more and not just relegating them to guaranteed mid lottery and your assets to show for it are Aaron Nesmith and a rookie mid 1st.
Not against trading him by any means, but I think if he just keeps the level of play he did last year, he has more value than what was being thrown around, in the “just get something done Monte” mode some were at around the deadline.
I think it is also fair to point out that the Kings acquired Barnes for just the contracts of Jackson and ZBo. If the rumored trade of Barnes for Nesmith and that Boston mid 1st you are referring to happen, that mid-first turned into Alperen Sengun. That’s also not taking into consideration what Monte might have done differently with two first rounders at #9 and #16.
From all that, it’s hard for me to say if Nesmith and Boston’s #16 would have been fair value for Barnes.
I have zero interest in going back and pantsing any fan for having an opinion eight months ago. What’s the point?
That said, there seem to be some missing components here. To begin with, Barnes was making probably somewhere in the neighborhood of $20m last year, while Nesmith was making probably less than $2m? Who else was coming in the deal to balance that trade? Expiring contract? Someone else?
Next, if you’re talking about the #16 pick in this year’s draft, the jury is going to be out on the results for some time. However, you would have had your choice of Sengun, Mann, Kai Jones, Keon or Jalen Johnson, Garuba, and others.
I would agree that Barnes is playing at a higher level right now than he was at the deadline last year, and with another year off his contract he is probably even more attractive than he was last year. In that regard, it could turn out to be good asset management by the Kings.
The tale of the tape is whether or not this permutation of the Kings is for real, or if Barnes is doing not much more than punching the clock for another losing Kings squad. If the Kings are this year where they were last year at the deadline – on the outside looking in but within striking distance of THEIR much coveted play-in spot – I imagine that Barnes will be retained again. And in a few years, if the Kings are still mired in the bottom reaches of the league while guys like Nesmith and Sengun or whomever begin to blossom, it will be yet another example of poor asset management by the Kings.
To your point, in a vacuum and on 10/28/21, it appears that the Kings are better off not having traded Harrison Barnes, subject to whatever deal was really on the table.
I don’t think the point is trying to pants a fan, but to suggest that we make pretty strong opinions/calculations (I’ve done it) at times when frustration is high with a team/player. Like currently with Fox….I think that is worthwhile to remember and past history as a community when we discuss these things.
There were plenty of takes and podcasts about how Monte was a moron for keeping Hield and Barnes at last deadline. Way to early to tell, but that seems to have been prudent and more importantly, I can’t imagine their value has worsened since then considering length of contracts, declining rates, good play etc. As sharp and quick as our takes to lay blame off a small sample/time frame are, I think we generally are less likely to praise and give props off a small sample. Maybe that’s human nature.
I think that if you are a team that has made the playoffs the majority of the past 15 seasons, you may get a little more benefit of the doubt. My bet is that Masai Uriji does not get second-guessed to the degree that Monte McNair or his predecessors get/got second-guessed. The answer lies in the results.
Also missing from the calculation is where the Kings land in the draft had they dealt Barnes and Hield. Four more losses and they tie Toronto. A flip of the coin and they are drafting fourth instead of ninth. Who knows? Certainly not me, that’s for sure.
Absolutely nothing wrong with “last year” Barnes.
The shot mix is notable. While in Dallas 27% of his shots were from beyond the arc. Since coming to Sacramento, his percentage of shots from three has grown to 38%, and it’s at 47% in this SSS season.
The disappointment that surrounded Barnes in Dallas revolved in part around his rather tepid true shooting, and his higher volume of taken (and missed) mid-range shots were a large contributor. As he has dialed back on the mid-range and focused more on threes and at-rim shots, his true shooting has improved immensely, from 54% range in Dallas to over 60% in Sac.
Mavs…y’all may have Doncic, but we got the beasting version of Barnes at least.
Sadly, the Kings could have possibly had both.
True. Dammit!
“Someday after this season, let’s go win a championship in the *Northeast Bay Area, too!”
The fact that it took this long for someone to challenge this version of Harrison (not Dallas’s version) to be a better scorer boggles me.
The only thing that concerns me is he and his 1st bout with injuries last year playing a career high in minutes, and he’s playing even more with higher usage this year. Fox needs to return to normal ASAP to share the load.
I have the very same concerns. He is currently 8th in the NBA at minutes per game at 37.3 MPG. If he goes down for any time at all with little nagging injuries the Kings are fucked at PF and SF.
“Harrison Barnes….”
Simmons, Thybulle, and two firsts for Barnes, Buddy, and Bagley! Who says no? 🎃
(I know it doesn’t work on many levels, but let me enjoy this, ok?)
I say no.
The new Kings could play D but not enough to overcome a complete lack of scoring.
No. Hell no. Also, Nope.
What Murraytant said.
Did you miss the part where Philly is the one adding 2 first round picks, and not the Kings?
It used to be that players reached their peak at year 4-8. Now it is later than that.
Can’t decide if glass is half full or empty: record is 2-2. Are the wins due to luck and the losses expected or the losses due to bad luck and the wins expected?
Holmes is steady. Barnes great, Buddy up and down. Fox and Hali down, TD down , Harkless slightly down, Mitchell great but needs to quit dribbling. Kings not playing at full potential and are 2-2.
Yeah, they are 2-2 against some pretty solid teams and were in every game looking like they belong. And while Barnes has been better than expected, no one else is really playing to their potential so far. This bodes well I think. I can’t see a world where Fox plays this bad for very long or Tyrese doesn’t figure out what is being thrown at him.
They had to grind that win out, for sure, last night but I wouldn’t say it was luck. They played better basketball when it was necessary and got some good stops down the stretch. It wasn’t pretty but it was the kind of game they would’ve lost last year.
FWIW, watching the first half offense was like taking a bite out of a shit sandwich. The game plan is awful and the team doesn’t look comfortable running whatever that perimeter-pass-around-til-the-shot-clock-expires play is called. Hella cringe, every time.
Very thorough analysis of what was, and what is as it pertains to Harrison Barnes. It really provides a ton of context, well done.
Great to see that Walton wanting for Barns to shoot more threes (a decision that was greatly Poo Poo’d by some here), is seeming like a good decision.
Badge Legend