Welcome back to Chainmail! Thank you everyone for all of your wonderful questions. Richard, Sanjesh and I got to talk about our thoughts on Buddy Hield trades, what kind of coaching candidate to look for, and just where the hell we see these Kings in four years! Tim’s gone so I’m allowed to say hell in the intro!
Before we get into your questions, we do want to thank our sponsor for the mailbag, Carter Imports! Carter Imports is a Sacramento-based company that imports some of the very best Extra Virgin Olive Oil and Cretan Thyme Honey available in the world today. There has never been a better time to support one of our own than right now!
From AirmaxPG:
How are the Kings going to get their #1 star on their next contending team? Will this team ever contend for titles?
Richard: To start, I think it’s unlikely that De’Aaron Fox will be the best player on the next championship contending Kings team. We know this core isn’t making a finals appearance or even a conference finals appearance. By the time the team could make that jump, I think the Barnes/Bogi/Buddy combo will be well into their thirties. The team will have to look very different, and I’m not sure Fox survives all the turnover. If I had to bet, I’d say the Kings get the star player of their next contending team in the draft, some time between 2021 and 2025.
Sanjesh: The best bet right now for Sacramento is hoping De’Aaron Fox takes another leap to become the solidified #1 player, which he technically already is. We don’t know what Fox will be like at his best, because I doubt we’ve seen him hit that point. Now you’re going to need a better coach to pull the best out of Fox, but that’s for a different conversation. This team needs to prove they can make the playoffs first before we talk about contending for a title; this current roster isn’t enough to make the playoffs in the Western Conference.
Will: The Kings have two viable ways of getting a star to compliment De’Aaron Fox: trade for a disgruntled, injury prone or expensive star from another franchise or find one in the draft. I’d split the odds right down the middle on where the Kings are going to find the main man of their next contending team, but my guts say it will be someone the Kings nab in the draft. The Kings feel like they’ve hired a General Manager with common sense and anyone with common sense knows that Sacramento might take a few years to get back into the playoff hunt. Knowing that means keeping team salary lower, so that flexibility could be used in potential trades and the best way to keep that salary cap low is play lots of young, inexpensive talent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Kings in a Top-3 draft spot next season and with next season’s NBA draft shaping up to be rather deep in star potential, our FIRST shot at seeing the Kings grab a #1 guy might be right there around the corner.
As for whether or not this team ever contends? Assuming the world doesn’t fall in on itself I could squint my eyes hard enough to see the Kings being contenders in the back half of this decade. That’s assuming alot though and as someone who is known to doomscroll social media as a hobby, the Kings best hopes for a championship might be behind us… permanently.
From Malrock:
Likelihood of Buddy getting traded before the end of next season? Give me a %. For instance are you 75% confident he is gone next year?
Richard: 99%. I think Buddy has done everything he possibly can to ask for a trade without actually doing it and risking the fine. The 1% represents the chance that the Kings can’t find anyone that wants him on his current salary. The deal wouldn’t have been nearly as disastrous before COVID, but if the salary cap stays steady or even drops, that’s a very rich price.
Sanjesh: Right now, I’m at about 90%. I didn’t like seeing Buddy like and comment on the Instagram trade post about him going to Philadelphia. If he’s going to be doing that, trade him. I don’t know if McNair has held talks with Buddy to determine his future, but McNair surely values a guy like Buddy extremely high and rightfully so. We know how good Buddy is when he’s in a system he can benefit from; last year exposed him in almost every single way. But if Buddy wants out, he’ll be coveted by multiple teams. And I’m sure McNair won’t sell low.
Will: I’m at about 65% with Buddy being traded before All-Star Break of next season. I mentioned last week that I felt the chances of him being gone before next season are very low, with the greatest likelihood being that he is traded at the deadline and, I’m standing by that. With so much in flux for a new GM, it would be nearly impossible to expect him to get a good return for Hield in the next three or so months but waiting for a rise in value over the start of the season betters those odds for McNair. It’s clear that changes need to be made but with a new GM, there’s going to have to be a modicum of patience as he evaluates and determines just where those changes need to be made. It’s equally likely that Walton-Hield pairing doesn’t work and McNair fires Walton and then empowers his interim coach to feed Buddy in the back half of the season. Now, whether or not that’s a good thing for the Kings? I can’t say. It’ll certain placate Buddy for a time.
From Peja:
What is the timetable for Monte to fill out his front office staff? Around how many people will be hired and what should we expect to see as their job duties. Is Ken the #2 or is Monte looking for another person to fill that role?
Richard: I think it’s pretty fluid right now. The key dates of the offseason continue to shift. They will probably add more staff to make their primary moves in the draft and free agency, but your guess is as good as mine as far as a specific timeline.
Sanjesh: This question largely depends on the financial status of Sacramento. With the amount of layoffs and furloughs we’ve seen since the pandemic, it’s not looking great. Ideally, McNair has assembled some sort of a crew before the draft, but I don’t know the budget that McNair is operating with. Ken should hold a significant role with the Kings because he’s saved them tons of money and McNair was right to retain him. Ken’s ability to produce good contracts is extremely beneficial during these unprecedented times.
Will: I would assume there will be at least a couple more hirings before the season or during the first month or so of the regular season. McNair and Catanella could probably handle the free agency period themselves and maybe even the draft, but with the Kings letting go pretty much everyone in Stockton, I’d assume one position is a dual role Vice President of Player Development / GM of Stockton Kings and another in the field of analytics or a more umbrella basketball operations position. This staff will take a few years to grow into a full formed one with the pandemic still on-going and with G-League teams going through the uncertainty of next season and so I’d expect a slow trickle of staff to be hired even through the next off-season or two.
From TheBufferZone:
What is the best thing to do with this year’s 2nd round picks? Keep them to stockpile young (hopeful dart throws) talent? Or trade them to either move up in the draft or in acquiring a young veteran?
Richard: I think there is a real roster crunch right now. The Kings have 8 guaranteed contracts plus the non-guaranteed Bjelica and restricted free agents Bogdanovic and Jeffries. They’ll probably bring back at least one unrestricted free agent and acquire at least one more as well. I would be pretty shocked if the Kings used all four picks. It would make plenty of sense to trade picks 43 and 52 or use them for international stash players.
Sanjesh: If the Kings don’t sell them because of financial reasons, then I think you keep all three and take good value picks. I don’t expect McNair to reach for guys like Justin James or Vanja Marinkovic, but I’d like to see the picks be utilized efficiently. Names I’ve seen get ranked as second-round prospects are Des Bane, Malachi Flynn, Killian Tillie, Payton Pritchard and others that I’d take a shot with if not already selected. If McNair sees a guy he likes late in the first round that’s available, he should package those picks and move up if possible.
Will: I’d venture to guess at least one of those picks will either be used for a draft-and-stash or sold outright for cash. The best thing is always to keep your darts and acquire others if you feel confident. While this draft class isn’t deep, it does seem to be fairly wide, with talent being projected from end of the lottery all the way to the second round depending on who does the evaluating. This first draft I’m just more curious to see the strategy that McNair uses. After so many seasons of Vlade, it was predictable that he would trade back for two picks, draft someone from the biggest schools in the country and or pick an unknown way, way too high. McNair is a blank slate and watching him work in free agency and the draft will be a real marker of how excited we should be about the Kings long term future.
From Kosta:
What do you imagine Joerger would have accomplished had he played out his contract here? Would the Kings have made the playoffs this past season with Joerger at the helm? Would Buddy have been playing better? Would Vlade still have his job?
Richard: Unfortunately, everything I’ve heard suggests Joerger was never going to work due to poor relationships with other members of team staff. It’s a shame, because he is a quality coach. Still, he is not elite, so I don’t think he would have brought this team to the playoffs or saved Vlade’s job. Buddy didn’t seem much happier with him either. He may just not be happy in Sacramento, period. The franchise doesn’t look all that different if he stayed, in my opinion.
Sanjesh: I’m ready to move on from Joerger/Vlade/Luka talk. McNair is here now so let’s see what he can do.
From eurostep:
If Walton gets fired would the Kings be better served hiring a veteran coach that has built a team from the ground up (Alvin Gentry, Duane Casey, Nate McMillan) or hiring a top NBA assistant coach or a major college coach?
Richard: I would prefer to see someone get their first head coaching position in Sacramento. That route is probably cheaper too, which would clearly be a plus. Maybe McNair could catch lightning in a bottle with a young up-and-comer.
Sanjesh: I prefer the Kings to poach an assistant from a successful team, just as they did with the general manager search. I’m looking at someone like Wes Unseld Jr. from the Denver Nuggets or Becky Hammon from the San Antonio Spurs. We’ve seen what coaches like Gentry and Casey can do, but I’d like to try something new and fresh.
From MiseryLovesCompany:
Looking into your magic 8-ball, Monty McNair will have the Kings in fours years: (a) perennial playoff contender; or (b) McNair fired from his job; or (c) status quo as a bottom dweller; or (d) get creative with your own mystery timeline.
Richard: I’m going with option C. It may sound harsh or even ridiculous to predict poor early results for McNair, but he is a Kings GM afterall. My concerns about the internal power structure will exist until the results change. It’s not that I think the Kings will be bad in four years because of McNair, but just that they will be bad in four years because they are the Kings.
Sanjesh: Ask me this question when the season starts, as we’ll have a better foundation to answer. I’d like to wait for any potential trades, signings and/or picks to be made by McNair before I judge his ability or inability to succeed in this significantly challenging position. Not because it’s a GM role, but because Sacramento is the toughest place to succeed right now and McNair now has the GM role.
Will: I don’t usually find myself being the optimistic one here, but I think that McNair will get the Kings closer to Option A than any of the others. I’m not sure we’ll be perennial playoff contenders quite yet, but I could definitely see the Kings as a ninth seed, with lots of young talent and a good head coach and earning their stripes as an up-and-coming young team. McNair didn’t have to take this job and he’s the most well respected GM since early 2000’s Geoff Petrie already. He’s forward thinking, well spoken without the weird vibe that Pete D’Allesandro sometimes put off and this time around the potential undoing by an advisor isn’t by one that want’s to be a head coach. I think he has a very good shot of slow-walking the Kings to a playoff berth or damn close by 2025.
From RikSmits:
Why are we still fans of this team?
Richard: Because I’m broken inside. There is some sick, twisted perversion in me that always roots for the most underdog of underdogs. The Patriots are playing the Chiefs this weekend (well, Monday now). Sounds like a good game, right? No thank you. Give me that Jags-Bengals game, baby.
Sanjesh: The Kings will be back in the playoffs one day. The Miami Marlins just broke its MLB playoff drought (17 years) and though I know the shortened season is a factor, Sacramento will inevitably be back, too. That likely won’t happen this season, but one day it will. One. Day. And I can’t wait for that moment.
Will: This is always the corny, silly answer when it gets asked by it has never been disingenuous with me – I’m a fan of this team still because of you all. This is my gathering place, my Cheers bar and you all are very much the patrons I get to overhear talking. I read the comments and various articles and laugh along with the jokes or bad trade ideas etc. and I keep up with this team because I want to see what it’s like when they’re respectable and five years into a playoff run. I want to know how crazy our discussions get when we’re favorites in the Western Conference. I want to see my friends happy and in the meantime, I’m happy to have people to commiserate with in this hellscape of a planet.
I keep forgetting that the trade deadline is likely to be much later than it normally is, since the season is pushed back a bit. Do you think that may factor into what the Kings might do at, and ahead of the deadline?
I’m not sure when the trade deadline is matters.
The issue for me is the gut feeling I have thinking about how many teams will be trying to trim salary next year. It’s going to be the first financially down year in quite a while, especially if the rumors about down ratings are even remotely true. This will probably make it harder for a team like the Kings who are bad AND trying to trim salary.
That’s an excellent point. Still, a potential playoff team will almost certainly be fretting about spreading the floor when the tournament begins. If Buddy is playing decently, some team won’t be able to stop themselves from biting. Most of these owners are infants, and can’t resist the opportunity to win a ring to show off at the yacht club.*
*Not the yacht club that you’re thinking of. You’re not even allowed to know about the yacht club I’m talking about. If you knew about it, that would taint it, and they’d have to form a new one. There’s only so much coastline, so keep it to yourself.
Agree. There’s always a fringe championship team looking for shooting. But I think the divide might be really bad next year. Like 12 or so teams that actually want to compete next year. I think almost every team will sacrifice wins to get out of the luxury tax, and more that will sacrifice wins to get into this 2021 draft.
I pretty much agree with Will on still following the Kings. To be honest, I don’t even particularly like the Kings. There are a couple players who seem like good guys, but this just is not a likable team or organization, and that’s on them to fix.
And really, with everything going on and everything that might happen in the near future, it’s just hard to muster any emotional attitude one way or another for what’s happening, especially with how much of the NBA’s own future is up in the air. Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.
And give me a team where I can say “Go Kings!” and not sardonically.
everybody: “WILL!”
Women. You can’t live with them. Pass the beernuts is my favorite quote of all time.
“It’s a dog eat dog world, and I’m wearing milkbone underwear.”
“Can I pour you a beer, Mr. Peterson?”
“A little early, isn’t it, Woody?”
“For a beer?”
“No, for stupid questions.”
(1) Everyone needs to chill on Buddy Hield. Your desperation is apparent from miles away and any trade offer for him would fleece the Kings. Buddy is a King getting paid $20 million a year. He’ll play well if utilized correctly. (2) don’t toss out pick #43 or 52 as if they’re garbage. Many players projected to go in the range of 40-45 are in the SAME TIER of players projected to get picked in the 10-15 range. I repeat, it’s the SAME TIER of players. even at 52, the Kings can get a player. (3) predictions for McNair in four years, I’ll go with (a), perennial playoff contender if you all stop acting so desperate.
Because a franchise’s fans’ state of mind has so much to do with whether or not the management of said franchise can competently put together a competitive ballclub.
Why haven’t you just wished it into existence, Norman Vincent Peale?
You all are just feeding rumors about Hield. What was the previous article? Someone halfway across a restaurant saw Buddy Hield decline an incoming phone call? And you all flip out? Jeez. Give it a rest.
The rumors are of very little interest, and if they have even negligible value, they certainly don’t stray far from the confirmed narrative relating to Buddy’s state of mind as it relates to Sacramento.
It’s the offseason, exactly what would you have the people at a Sacramento Kings site talk about?
Wait, never mind. We should absolutely spend the next three months relitigating whether Luka would have been the better pick.
I’m working on a 35-piece series on the best smelling player from each Kings’ season. Teaser: Jimmer Fredette smelled like cinnamon rolls.
How do the Kings’ draft picks smell?
Kinda drafty.
I would have rec’d this had you stopped at the Colonel.
https://imgur.com/xquzt8f
That would be hilarious
Drakkar Noir Sampson
Ailene Poison
If you want to talk about Buddy, we can talk about how to better utilize him.
And one of the options is utilizing him as a trade asset.
I don’t think you understand how free speech on an fan blog works, perhaps.
See, I can talk about how I can’t stand 75% of his post-game comments, or how I don’t appreciate his low key attempts at getting traded (or whatever it is he’s been doing) or how he turns the ball over at an infuriating rate, even when he’s not playing PG AND I can talk about what a good job he did running with Fox for a whole season and looked like the best damn sniper in the league. I can talk about how I don’t like his workout clothes, if I want. The beauty I’m attempting to relate, here, is that I can (and obviously will) talk about any damn thing I want, Ed.
Why are you so defensive about a guy who’s most likely not going to be here to finish out the contract we gave him?
I always take my boss’ call. At least until it is the one telling me I am laid off.
FU Eddie! I’m desperate!!!!
KINGS
Unfortunately I think Richard is near right with Buddy
I think Kings fans as a whole tend to overrate his value. But he was just benched on a nice extension where there may be a cap hit with all the things going on. His advanced stats last year left some to be desired
IMO his value is barely positive. I’d love if we could just get Phillys pick this year, as this is a flat draft that will have talent to that point
I agree, he is overvalued. Yes, he is an elite shooter, but that skill isn’t as rare as it used to be there were 28 players that shot over 40% from range this past season. 28 PLAYERS! Buddy clocked in at 35th with a .394. Yes, Buddy was 2nd in 3pt makes, but he was also 2nd in 3pt attempts. Know who lead the league in 3pt%… Ex-Kings legend George Hill at 46%
My point is, Buddy’s elite skill set, isn’t that elite and he really doesn’t do anything else that is above average. Couple that with the fact he is going to be making $94M over the next 4 years and you begin to realize that maybe Buddy might not be all that valued around the league.
I think I may push back a bit on this. Which is funny, because I’ve also been a guy to point out how many people are shooting over 40% from 3 these days. It just feels like this may overstate it a bit. Ultimately, it may just come down to your personal definition of elite. I’d feel pretty comfortable saying Hield is easily a top 10 shooter in the NBA based on his combination of volume, shot type, and percentage. On his deal, his value is probably tied to the specific teams context (roster, cap status, competitive status, etc.) For a team like the 76ers or Lakers who are varying degrees of contender, badly need the skill Buddy excels at, and can easily cover for his shortcomings, he’s could be extremely valuable. For other teams, less so. I will say, Hield also provides a level of reliability and proven ability that makes him more attractive. We’re talking about a guy that hasn’t shot less than 39% over the course of a season, has done it in elite volume, and has only missed 2 games over his 4 seasons.
I’m all for trading Hield and as always, whenever he’s traded we’re going to bicker over the return, but I think it’s fair to say that he’s exceptional at what he does and there are at least a handful of teams that would happily have him on his contract.
Thanks for answering my question! Totally agree with Richard. I just don’t know if Fox is on our next contending team (if there ever is one). I think Vlade screwed us, since Fox/Doncic might have been a nice core, or perhaps we would have been the ones to acquire Porzingis by trading Fox…
But here we are. We have Fox, and a largely unknown quantity in Bagley. Perhaps Moneybags can come back healthy and exceed everyone’s expectations, but I don’t think that’s a particularly likely outcome. What is the ceiling of a Fox/Bagley core anyway?
So if we maintain status quo, and roll with this group for another season, it stands to reason we will win somewhere between 35-40 games, right? So that puts us in the late lottery (probably) again, which will put us at a disadvantage to get that #1 star in that draft.
Option B is trade the vets and keep Fox. So we likely suck this year and can maybe get a top 5 pick and potentially get that #1 star. Is Fox on board with that? Another couple years of rebuilding, while a younger player develops to eventually (hopefully) surpass him? I don’t think that’s a very proven path to success either…
And Option C is trade everyone (including Fox) for prospect and picks. To me this is the only way we’ll ever reach relevancy sometime this decade.
I am in your camp. I only think Option C will bring the Kings back to relevance. I don’t think Fox is a Franchise player. Regardless, of what Ham, Jones, or any of the local podcasts or social media claim.
I think Fox will have a nice career like Mike Conley. But, I don’t believe he will be a major difference maker on a contending team. I just don’t see it.
Bagley on the other hand is a mystery. When Bagley has been healthy he doesn’t look like he has the tools to be any star in this league. Maybe, he will be a decent center at some point. But a centerpiece? I don’t ever see that happening.
In summation, I really don’t see a core here. If Mcnair was smart he would trade anyone and everyone for the best ROI he can get. Picks, Prospects and Expirings.
If the Kings offer Fox the max extension and he signs it, it does not matter if he’s onboard with it or not (tanking). He’s a smart guy and I’m sure he understands what the Kings are trying to build in the long run. I’ve said this numerous times and I think the best route the Kings should take is trading most of the guys (Buddy, Bjelly, Bogi, Holmes, Joseph and Barnes) for picks and assets. Roll with the young guys (Fox, Bagley, our 2020 pick and some G-league players) and see what we got. This would certainly assure as a top 5 pick and it we get lucky nab the #1 pick (Hello Cade Cunningham!) or even just getting guys like Jonathan Kuminga (he’s my number 2 right now behind Cade), Brandon Boston, Jalen Green etc.
If Fox continues to blossom next year and a much improved Bagley (health and development wise) paired with a top 5 pick in 2021, it does not look bad for the Kings and Mcnair would have a lot of options moving forward.
If Fox understands what the Kings are trying to build in the long run, I’m going to suggest that he’s the only person in the world who does.
I don’t know about you guys but I am certainly not capable of switching to be a fan of a different team even if I wanted to. Kings are my first love to the NBA and I can’t help it but to root for them.
95% of Kings fans are geographically linked
I suppose there are a few early 2000 Kings fan hanger ons and some Serbian fans. But the great majority is geographically linked
Can you link that study?
We are all geographically linked
This is one of those “round earth” theories, isn’t it?
Thanks for answering my question.
I am with Will on the answer, I am mainly here for this community.
Although I must say I am at the point where I am feeling that also here, discussing everything Kings, Kangz and Kong’s we are stuck on groundhog day. Bad trades, getting rid of underperforming, too expensive players, when to get rid of our coach, cash strapped, stupid ownership etc.
I just can’t find the passion anymore I shared here about things like Omri vs Donte, IT, DMC
vs Karl/coaches/refs/teammates/journalists/Clippers/rest of the world, Here We Stay(ed) etc.
Most of that passion seemed to be invested into negative stuff, and rarely into positive thins. I don’t want to get passionate about Vlade’s blunders, Vivek’s dismissiveness or Bagley’s tunnel vision.
I know I have a rep as a cynical negative guy, and that is fair enough. I just don’t want to be that guy the whole time, just occasionally. And with this team I just can’t be a glass half-full -guy. I have become a glass almost-empty, with a sip of some noxious poison in the bottom, and the glass is cracked anyway, so good luck filling it up – guy.
I am not sure how much enthusiasm I can muster for upcoming season. And I certainly don’t want to ambivalent.
Totally agree, I’m sliding into apathy, its hard to look at this organization and see any hope coming anytime soon. There was a time when the national media would S$it on this team with its lazy reporting and takes.
Now while you can get annoyed and the lazy analysis and belief that the Kings will act as the farm team for the good teams, the reputation they have is deserved
Who knows who good Fox can be, I fear this team will never realize what they have on their hands. Sadly for the most part the rest of the roster of league average starters and roster filler
Sadly I came for the Kings and have ended up staying for the community
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