Well, we’ve reached that point again in the Kings season where any chance at the playoffs or, in Sacramento’s case, the play-in tournament are hanging on by a thread. Is there a chance? Yes. Is there really a chance? For the team that defeated the Chicago Bulls Monday night, maybe there is. For the team that lost by 16 points to the New York Knicks, probably not.
Anyhow, with 12 games left, there is still plenty to keep an eye on outside of the slim hope at the play-in (the Kings are 4 games back of the 10th place New Orleans Pelicans by the way). Let’s take a look at five things to watch as we enter the final stretch of the 2021-22 season.
Fox and Sabonis
De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are the core of the Kings for the foreseeable future. Sabonis recently said things need to go well in Sacramento over the last two years left on his contract when asked about his long-term future here. (You know, like the Kings need to not be who they have been for a decade and a half.) The pairing of these two with the right pieces around them has real potential though.
Fox is averaging 30 points, 7.6 assists, 4 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 51% from the field and 38% from three over his last 10 games. Sabonis is averaging 18 points, 12.8 rebounds and 5.9 assists in his last 10 games. So, the two are producing well as a tandem without much time together. Both are a lot for opponents to handle when it comes to scoring in the paint. Fox’s craftiness and Sabonis’ power makes for a good one-two punch for attacking inside. When they are working the pick and roll it can also cause defenses fits.
The issue they have is shooting.
Here is Sabonis’s shot chart this season. That’s a lot of red outside the paint.
Here is Fox’s shot chart this season. That corner three is not his friend.
Fox has improved his midrange shot and is shooting around 44% from there. His three has looked good as of late also, but he is at 29% from three on the season. We saw what can happen when Fox is knocking down his three in the game against the Utah Jazz Saturday. He went 5-11 from distance and at one point the Jazz began doubling him at the three-point line, which opened up passing lanes. Meanwhile, Sabonis is at 23% from 16 feet to the three-point line, and 30% from three this season (only 15% during his time with the Kings).
Though the team as a whole has shot well from the field in recent games, Fox and Sabonis could use a little more consistent scoring help from their teammates outside Harrison Barnes, particularly from three. If teams pack the paint and take away the strength of the Kings offense, things can get pretty stagnant. That is because they still can’t rely on their defense, which remains in the bottom tier of the NBA (28th in defensive rating), though things looked a little better in that regard against the Bulls.
So, if they can’t score, they can’t get stops, they can’t win.
Rinse and repeat.
This is a roster construction conversation, but the more creative Fox and Sabonis can get with the pick and roll and utilizing ball movement and spacing and cutting, the more effective they can be individually and as a team and compensate for some of that lack of consistent outside shooting.
Despite all of this, it will be nice to see Fox and Sabonis get a little more time together. And it will be fun to see if Fox can keep this incredible run he is on up.
Davion Mitchell
Mitchell is a bit perplexing. On one hand, the guy plays so under control and with so much purpose, you would think he would be better than he has been overall this season. Since his solid stretch of games in late January and early February in which he had six straight games in double digit scoring, Mitchell has been very inconsistent offensively. These last two games were the first time since that January stretch, he scored in double digits in back-to-back games. There could be an obvious reason for that, which is minutes. During that stretch he averaged 34 minutes per game. Ever since, he has averaged 24 minutes per game. That good six-game stretch, of course, came with Fox sidelined.
So, playing time certainly plays a factor, and a result, getting into a rhythm and knowing how many minutes and who you will be playing alongside on a nightly basis can become an issue. The big trades that were made certainly altered the rotations even more. There also were questions about his shot coming out of college. He has proven he can shoot, just not consistently yet. He will have nights where he shoots between 50-66% from the field and follow that up with a 22% night. Mitchell is too hard of a worker and student of the game to not have more of an impact with the minutes he does get off the bench though. He has only been in the + column in the +/- category twice in the last 11 games. His last two games are certainly positive signs scoring wise, however.
His game is all about defense, which definitely is needed, but on a team that desperately needs someone to consistently score outside of Fox, Sabonis and Barnes, it would be nice to be able to rely on Mitchell for that.
That being said, he is still a rookie and still learning the game. Most likely there will be a point in the remaining few weeks of the season when Fox gets shuts down and Mitchell gets another chance at being a lead the guard for a stretch of games. It will be interesting to see how that plays out for him.
Queta/Holmes
For a team that is full of backup bigs, adding another to the mix with little experience probably isn’t too enticing to Alvin Gentry and the coaching staff. And as our good friend Jerry Reynolds likes to say, if he isn’t playing there is a probably a reason for that. That being said, Neemias Queta has looked serviceable over his short stints this season with the Kings. He is active and fills up the paint. He isn’t the best fit next to Sabonis obviously, so he probably isn’t a long-term solution even if he can prove he belongs, but it would be nice to see if the Kings have something there.
The rookie is averaging 15.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.6 blocks with the Stockton Kings. He has played sparingly in 10 games with the Kings this season. He had an 11-point and 5-rebound game in 24 minutes against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Jan. 10 (he also went 3-4 from the free throw line). This probably doesn’t say too much considering his low playing time, but his Per 36 puts him at 13.5 points, 12.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 2.6 blocks per game.
Again, not expecting him to come out and be the Vlade Divac to Sabonis’ Chris Webber, but it would be good to see if the Kings have a talent chip there. And besides, the Kings already know what they have in Damian Jones, Alex Len and Chimezie Metu.
And then there is Richaun Holmes. It’s been a rough season for the big man. Between COVID-19 protocols and injuries, Holmes wasn’t able to stay on the floor in the early part of the season. Then the Kings traded for Sabonis, and his role shrunk drastically. Much like Mitchell and Fox ahead of him though, one must assume there is going to come a time when Sabonis is going to be shut down for the rest of the season. If that does happen, Holmes could get a chance at extended minutes.
Like Queta, Holmes isn’t the ideal big next to Sabonis, but it would be good to see him get back into a rhythm. We saw flashes of old Richaun Saturday against the Utah Jazz (the push shot, hustle plays around the basket, etc.) before he was ejected. Unfortunately, he followed that up with 3 fouls, 1 rebound and 1 block in 10 minutes against the Bulls. It is probably safe the assume the Kings will be looking to try to trade Holmes after this season, so him boosting his value a little over the final stretch of the season would be good for him and the team.
Consistent Fourth Scorer
This team desperately needs someone who can consistently get 11-13 points a game and knock down threes behind Fox, Sabonis and Barnes, and allow for one or even two of them to have somewhat of an off night every now and then. This happened against the Bulls with Barnes having a rough scoring night. Donte DiVincenzo, who looked solid in the starting role, dropped in 15 points, Mitchell added 16 and Metu finished with 10. DiVincenzo and Mitchell knocked down threes and it helped. If that sort of output can happen more often, combined with the toughness and tenacity those two bring on defense, it would be a huge boost. Up until this point though the scoring hasn’t happened consistently enough, and it will be on the front office to find that scorer in the offseason. As it stands right now, on most nights when defenses figure out how to slow down Fox (a tough task lately) and Sabonis there just simply isn’t enough fire power on this team to overcome it. And the defense, which is once again awful despite all the talk coming into this season, likely isn’t going to get better between now and the last game in April.
With extended minutes, that fourth scorer could be Mitchell or DiVincenzo, who averaged 10.4 points per game in the 2020-21 season with the Milwaukee Bucks. If DiVincenzo can keep that starting spot for the remainder of the season, his development in that role will be intriguing to watch.
Also, with extended minutes Trey Lyles could be that guy. In fact, in every game this season other than one that he has played 25 minutes or more he has scored in double digits.
Losses for the Tank!
Back to the lottery with us! Yes, there is a chance at the play-in and the win over the Bulls was fun, but this team realistically should be playing hard and building chemistry while losing at the same time for lottery balls to glue to the outside of the purple tank. There isn’t much out there yet, but the frequent mock drafts are coming, and we will be talking a lot about it, of course, on this site. We kicked off draft talk in fact in the latest Kings Pulse podcast so make sure you check that out. Right now, most mock drafts have the Kings selecting at the 6th pick.
On the other hand, this draft might not even be so much about who is available for the Kings, but instead about if Monte McNair uses the pick and a player(s) to try to add another proven core piece to the roster.
The final stretch continues Wednesday against the Milwaukee Bucks.
What are you looking forward to watching as the season comes to a close?
My wish is for the Kings to be competitive but still lose all the remaining games. We need more of those spherical white bouncy balls.
(1) everyone playing well, (2) team chemistry, (3) see more of Divincenzo in a starting role, (4) see one or more of the bench players (like Metu, Lyles) show us they are better than we thought, (5) winning for the sake of winning.
Divincenzo is the big wild card imo. If he can knock down 3s at about 35-37%, along with his usual defense and ball movement, there’s no reason he can’t become Fox’s long-term backcourt partner. We need about 15ppg from him for him to cement himself in that role, but if he can get there it answers a lot of our questions. It’d just be a matter of finding that long, defensive-minded stretch-4 to slide in between Barnes and Sabonis.
Yeah, it seems like most people on this site have liked Divincenzo for a while. I personally compare his fit with Fox to Shumpert, who worked well. He does a couple freakish things every game that make people stop and question how he did it (eg., grab a rebound, steal a pass, etc.) he’s a weird element for the other team to deal with, and it seems like he’s never psychologically defeated. And when he does make a three, it’s sort of irritating for the opponent. Plus it’s something new for us to watch, and the team has to decide if they want to resign him and for how much, soon.
Anybody in mind for this? That’s a difficult thing to find.
Have you been watching Jalen Smith with the Pacers? Interesting young player.
Watched him in Phoenix a little bit, actually, and a little since the trade with Indy. He might be that type of guy who fits that mold. Still very young.
I’m wondering if the Kings could get him with the bi-annual exception. He’d be a perfect use of that. Still wondering why Phoenix didnt pick up his 3rd year option.
FWIW, he’s making more on his rookie scale deal this season (4.5M, Indy could offer him more (4.6M next season, 5.95M the season after that) than he would what the bi-annual starts at next year (7.5M next 2 years). I’m not sure the Kings have much of a shot at getting him unless it’s just about playing time and they promise him a starting spot out of the chute.
That’s assuming Indy wants him at that number, though. They might not.
I think he has the potential to be good. I am sure Indy would keep him at that price, and would try and see if Turner/Smith/Jackson/Goga are enough at 4/5. Hard to decipher what goals they are going to have in the offseason. They seem like they should offload one of Brogdon, Heild, or Duarte and upgrade at the 3 and or 4. I don’t know how much Simon is going to pressure Pritchard to get to the 8th spot again quickly.
The other thing worth keeping in mind, other than the fluid nature of the roster as you point out, is that Pritchard’s on an expiring deal as well. And who knows whether or not kid Simon is really under pressure financailly with the Pacers at this point or not.
It’s like the Kings though in a way. People talk about completely bottoming out, but the time to do that was in 2013. Not 2022 when you have literally just had a game that was probably filled by 60% of the opponents fans in YOUR building. And this isn’t a Brewers-Cubs game for chrissake.
Financial concerns in these deals are real, and if the Kings take a massive hit on their next TV deal (seems very likely) that’s really going to hurt for a long, long time.
Myles Turner, make it happen Monte 😀
How about Bobby Portis or PJ Washinton.Portis a free agent and Washington a trade for Holmes. Hornets want a better center than Plumlee.
PS I read that the Heat might want to trade Duncan Robinson. At 6″7″ he can shoot the three and could also play SF.
Dammit. Portis is actually having himself a pretty solid season.
He was sooo mediocre prior to joining the Bucks, I was about to say “no thanks”. I wouldn’t hate the version playing out of Mil at the moment. I also wouldn’t hate Metu / Lyles developing and filling out that role, either.
I can’t stand Duncan Robinson. Yes he can shoot the 3, but his defense was trash (I say was cuz I haven’t seen a single Heat game this season.) He also has a face for punching. Repeatedly.
Monte has maybe 1 full season left to significantly improve this team’s W-L numbers. My hunch is he will trade the Kings’ (pretty high) draft pick + pieces in an effort to get a third player on or near the Fox/Sabonis level. No idea who that would be. Caveat: If the Kings jump into the top 3, he keeps the pick. Or does he? Maybe he still trades it and just gets more in return? Maybe Vivek just starts Viveking all over the place and the team drafts Stauskas 2.0? Kangz, man. Kangz.
I’d keep a top 3 pick only if Chet/Jabari are still on the board
I’d probably be leaning Jabari Smith if I had the choice between the two, honestly. Wouldn’t be remotely unhappy about Chet Holmgren though.
if the Kings pick was outside of the range of Holmgren, Smith, Murray, maybe Griffin, and was in the 7,8,9 range, I hope Monte would call Masai and inquire about OG. Siakam’s playing like an All-NBA player again, FVV is locked in, they only have Gary Trent Jr. for another year before they have to re-up him, I wonder if the incredible play of Barnes has made OG and his injury prone-ness more expandable? They still have a whole in the middle. I wonder if Holmes, Davion, and a couple of future seconds could get it done? Holmes, Holiday, and our FRP if it is 7,8,9?
I could certainly get behind a Kings starting line up of Fox-DDV-OG-Barnes-Sabonis next season, with a bench of Davion, TD, Metu, Lyles, Jones, Harkness, and whatever the MLE could bring in.
The trouble with this lineup seems to be defensive rim protection, which at 6’7” Anunoby can’t supply very well.
It’s my favorite time of year. Watch that winning percentage go up against tanking teams or playoff teams resting guys. Then this will
mean they are really gelling and next year, just you wait until next year.
My wish is for the Kings to be fun to watch, win a few games to build chemistry but not enough to fall past the 7th pick. I personally see little evidence that they will use the pick, even if they jump in the top 3. Draft day trades will be something to watch this offseason.
Just popped in to say that, given our history, it’s very unlikely that we shut any of the core pieces down. I expect them to continue to see heavy minutes through game 82. It’s just what we do.
You’re very likely right. I’ve watched Gentry let Fox close out games as he surpasses forty minutes of playing time, even when the result is decided. If anyone has earned a bit of rest, it’s our Mr. Fox.
Good article Blake. Thanks for everything, for the stuff we see and the things we don’t. It is appreciated.
As far as what I’m expecting? Eh, not much. Entertainment mainly. I don’t expect wins will come frequently down the stretch, but maybe they turned a corner after this Chicago game? We’ll see. I’m enjoying the hell out of De’Aaron Fox right now, though.
Agree, also hope to see this version of Fox start of 22-23. Chicago game was fun, although Bulls did miss everything first Q, but good to see Kings hang on to win.
I think it’s weird that with all of the talk about lack of scoring punch, no one seems to be factoring in that Terence Davis should be healthy and available to go next season. He’s shown that he can knock down threes, hustles on defense, and goes hard after rebounds. It’s not tough to envision Davis earning 25-30 minutes per game, and he is absolutely electric at times.
Shimmy Shaq, Shimmy Cat and I agree.
dear lord, he clanked that shot terribly, tho…
I’ve seen the same thing with a lot of players, Fox being one of them. Not the showboating, but just taking more time with the shot that you’d normally take seems to foul up the rhythm or muscle memory or something, and they just miss.
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