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5 on 5: Takeaways after Sacramento Kings start 3-2

Five takeaways for five games after a solid start.
By | 15 Comments | Jan 2, 2021

Courtesy of Sacramento Kings

Throw some cold water on your face €” not to embrace what 2021 will bring, but because the Sacramento Kings are 3-2 entering the new year. 

The quality of opponents makes this start more satisfying: The Denver Nuggets took a trip to the Western Conference Finals; Phoenix accomplished an 8-0 record in the bubble and added Chris Paul to bolster the backcourt, including auspicious internal growth from Mikal Bridges; Houston was also a playoff team last season, and Sacramento just took them to the final buzzer (to be fair to Houston, their new players still need to adjust to each other).

Five games simply aren’t sufficient in analyzing how the Kings are playing, but we’re doing it anyway; I’m waiting for the 20-game threshold to see if the trends we’re currently witnessing sustain, but as stats fluctuate after every game, per-game averages will also assemble themselves. From that point and beyond, we’ll have a better sense of who players are this season.

Let’s jump into some takeaways from the first five games, with some honorable mentions to conclude:

Tyrese Haliburton is not a rookie

Okay, he is. But that’s not my point. As Doug Christie said in the booth Thursday, the Kings didn’t steal Haliburton €” everyone else missed out. Haliburton has been insanely efficient on both ends of the floor; He’s making the right passes, not turning the ball over, navigating pick-and-rolls brilliantly, knocking down three pointers, and he’s creating a plausible case as Sacramento’s best defender.

I love numbers, so here’s a quick dump from five games:

Per 100 possessions, Haliburton has an offensive rating of 144 and a defensive rating of 114. That’s a +30 difference.

Haliburton has a true shooting percentage of 70.6 with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 5.5-1.

His assist-to-usage ratio of 1.58 ranks in the 100th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass.

I can persist with the sumptuous stats because with Haliburton’s play, the captivating numbers are abundant. He’s playing like a seasoned veteran, and he’s grasped the league’s attention already.

https://twitter.com/TheSanjeshSingh/status/1344355763272048640?s=20

De’Aaron Fox’s shooting

Sacramento’s now paying Fox the max €” now, Fox must continue to produce max-player numbers. Through five games, Fox’s production is fairly similar to that of last season. And it’s not astounding that when the Kings are winning, Fox is the catalyst behind the results.

A caveat from these five games, however, comes from the recent game against Houston. Fox finished with 22 points, five rebounds, six assists, four steals and a block; you love that level of two-way production. However, he shot 9-23 from the field, including a perceptible 1-7 clip from deep. Besides going 0-2 from three in the loss to Phoenix, that was his worst mark of the season. In the three wins, by chronological order, Fox obtained three-point rates of 50% (1-2), 43% (3-7), and 50% (2-4). These are unsustainable, given Fox’s previous averages, but you hope he’s hovering around his sophomore year clip and not last seasons.

We won’t know how competent Fox’s shooting is until later in the season, but so far, he’s at 42.9% from the field (down from 48% last season), 31.8% from three (up from 29.2%) and 75% from the free-throw stripe (up from 70.5%).

Let’s factor in another area of his shooting: mid-range jumpers. So far, Fox is shooting 58% (18-31) on short-mid jumpers, a stark contrast from his 13% (2-15) clip on long-mid jumpers. The former places in the 90th percentile, while the latter plummets to the 24th, per Cleaning the Glass. You’re seeing an aggressive Fox take defenders to the basket and pull up from mid-range off pick-and-rolls, but he needs to improve and convert the missed bunnies.

ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

I feel like I buried the lede here. Let’s discuss Marvin Bagley III, shall we? He’s only logged 25 minutes a game, but there are two caveats to it: 1. Luke Walton pulled Bagley early in the second Denver game, despite a 14-point second quarter. To paraphrase, Walton liked the momentum of the squad with Richaun Holmes on the floor and didn’t want to disrupt that. 2. Walton pulled the plug on Bagley against Houston. This time, however, it was justified as Bagley went 1-9 from the floor. It wasn’t rocket science that Sacramento made a run to tighten the game shortly after Bagley’s exit.

Despite the condensed minutes, what we’ve observed from Bagley so far is what we already knew: He’s a double-double machine. The question succeeding that: How effective are they? We can sit here and gaze at how aesthetically pleasing double-doubles look on the stat sheet, but for Bagley, the efficiency must ameliorate.

For starters, his shooting splits are 37/25/63. Adding context, the attempts are 11.8/2.4/3.8. The field goal percentage is easily the most glaring. Obviously going 1-9 in a game will significantly skew that, especially since it happened in game five of 72. He’s missing bunnies that must hop in. When those fall, you get results like the second quarter against Denver. When they don’t, you saw what happened in Houston. The free throws are also quite concerning, though they should improve. Last season, Bagley converted on 80.6% of 2.4 FTA a game. The three-point attempts are fine because he appears more confident with it, and again, you saw how he performed against Denver.

On the rebounding front, Bagley looks fine early on. He ranks in the 63rd percentile for defensive rebounding and the 70th for offensive rebounding, per CTG. You’d want those increasing later in the season, but considering it’s his fifth game back since he last played at the beginning of 2020, the results are acceptable.

Three-point shooting

Luke Walton wants this team to shoot more threes. In the preseason, we saw what Walton meant, though they were results far from what he desired.

The Kings have seen a mixed bag of results so far, which is why their team ranking of 14th in 3P% seems appropriate. As a unit, the Kings are shooting 36.4% on 28.6 attempts. The percentage is tied with the Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers.

The motley bag of results is why analyzing these stats after five games is hilarious. In Sacramento’s win against Phoenix, they mustered just five triples, shooting north of 21%. In the loss the following day, they shot 10/23, good for 43%. The Kings haven’t reached their ceiling as a three-point shooting team, though it’s fair to question what that ceiling looks like this season. Buddy Hield’s shooting numbers are crummy compared to his best; Harrison Barnes’ shot hasn’t settled in yet either, though it’s reasonable to presume it will; Glenn Robinson III hasn’t registered any minutes in two games; Nemanja Bjelica has a reduced role with a healthy Bagley, whose shooting we discussed earlier.

Sacramento has shown an affection for wide pindowns and dribble hand-offs that have led to three-point attempts, but they need to fall.

Are we running?

Just like the talk of more three-point attempts, Walton hoped to welcome back the pace of the 2018-19 season. But similar to the threes, the pace is also mesial compared to the rest.

Sacramento is 17th in pace (102.17), but I’d bet that springs as the season progresses. With Fox looking increasingly comfortable carrying the load, Haliburton’s poise in transition and rim-runners like Holmes and Bagley featuring more often, the pace could benefit.

honorable mentions

The Hassan Whiteside rollercoaster has stalled. Sacramento gave him the minimum to play limited minutes, and now the minutes are limited. After going 2-7 with three fouls in 12 minutes against Denver (the second time), Whiteside saw only three minutes against Houston. Let’s see what that means from now on.

What do we make of Cory Joseph? If there’s a site that calculates “no, no, no…yes!” plays, please let me know.

The Kings are tied for eighth in the fewest turnovers in the league. Having a smart ball-handler like Haliburton certainly assists in that department, as well as having Hield initiate less (he’s down 0.5 on turnovers per game).

There’re more figures and trends I didn’t touch on, but the Kings have looked, and played, like an equidistant team. That’s surely an improvement from prior seasons.

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Kosta
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January 2, 2021 10:06 am

Walton wants more threes? Tonight, put in Kyle Guy and let it fly!

ZillersCat
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January 2, 2021 10:19 am
Reply to  Kosta

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MillersCornrows
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January 2, 2021 10:21 am

Outstanding article!

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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Nostradumbass 14
January 2, 2021 10:40 am

Yo Sanjesh, we all love your video break downs! You mind taking an article suggestions?

I’d love to see an analysis of Fox’s shooting. To me his form looks solid but the percentages don’t reflect that. Are is issues related to form, follow through, rushing, off the dribble, etc? I’d just like to figure out what his issue is. IMO, whatever the issue is, it also seems to effect from from the FT line.

Lastly, great article as always.

Ccc
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Ccc
January 2, 2021 11:11 am

I think you hit on the key issues here. Notably, Luke’s coaching has not been a big topic this year since the kings are playing more cohesively than last year. Does that mean Luke is doing a good job? Or should the credit be given to the players and Halliburton?

Also, regarding bagley, stats do not tell the story. You can get a double double but still make the team around you worse in basketball. This is why I’ve always had a hard time translating €œmoney ball€ from baseball to basketball. Basketball relies more on teammates.

NinjaFetus
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January 2, 2021 11:21 am

Great article to sum up being 3-2 so far compared to last years start. I think a couple other things are factors here:

1) Not only Hali’s play which is terrific so far, but I think a couple players on the team don’t want to be shown up by a rookie. I’m looking at Fox and Hield mostly. Haliburton is already showing that he’s really good, which I think is making (and to degrees helping) Fox and Hield up their games. Plus having a rookie give effort on defense is always a welcomed sight.

2) Bagley is who we thought he is through 5 games, he isn’t going to change. He will get his numbers, but I don’t think they will ultimately help with winning. He’s a black hole on ball movement, prefers to do jumpers and 3’s, and most of the rebounds I’ve seen so far have been easier rebounds that aren’t really contested (I haven’t watched all the games so far, so I could be wrong about this). His FTA’s should be higher than 2.4, which I think is a direct reflection of his shot selection.

Hope I’m wrong on Bagley and he does continue to improve, as him getting better makes the team better. Pleasantly surprised so far with this team.

RikSmits
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January 2, 2021 11:42 am
Reply to  NinjaFetus

Every comment about Bagley so far, including the article, completely ignores the defensive side. His defensive awareness and understanding of positioning and when and where to rotate are not good, and look even worse in comparison to Haliburton.

NinjaFetus
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January 2, 2021 2:29 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

Can’t speak for others, but I don’t mention his defense exactly because of why you stated. When a rook is doing so much better in effort, that speaks volumes. Thing is he could be pretty decent, but I don’t think he wants to put in the effort.

KDsBurnerAccount
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January 2, 2021 12:36 pm
Reply to  NinjaFetus

I agree, and I keep hearing about this ‘double-double floor’ for Bagley, which would be fine IF he was actually getting double double’s. He’s not even reaching his floor, let alone his potential.
I’ll give him 10 games to shake off the ‘rust’. After that, he needs to perform. Heck, 30 year olds John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins put up more points than Bagley in their first game back from MORE severe injuries.
I want him to succeed, and it’s not like 20 year olds can’t improve in life.

SMF-PDXConnection
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January 2, 2021 11:24 am

This is the good stuff, certainly better and more informative than what you get from ESPN.

A 2021 goal should be to promo our way to getting this writing crew onto NBA TV or something.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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Nostradumbass 14
January 2, 2021 11:28 am

ESPN has turned into a paywall shit show. I really only go there for box scores.

alwaysrite23
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January 2, 2021 12:20 pm

More takeaways: Haliburton is what it looks like to have a PG making smart PG decisions, making everyone better around him, not taking bad shots in crunch time — and also playing strong D. He’s only going to get better. Meanwhile, Fox is still making bad decisions, still a 1-on-1, score first thinker. Still a bad jump shooter and poor free throw shooter. Still has defensive potential that isn’t consistently applied. I hope he figures it all out, which I’ve said the past three seasons in a row, now.

Buddy continues to be a maddening player who makes terrible decisions. Plays smelly D. Bricks us out of games. Not much of a team player. His value continues to drop. Plus he looks like he came in out of shape. Buddy, do better, even if you don’t want to be in Sac.

The usual people always complaining about Bagley have one major thing in common, besides the obvious deep-seated anger about Luka: They still have yet to see Bagley play one complete season of NBA basketball. Yet they would trade him for a bag of unsalted nuts. It’s clear that when he plays any significant time, he begins to steadily improve in different areas. He’s just yet to play significant time. But at this point, the best way for him to become all-NBA is for Kings to trade him for nothing.

Props to Barnes and Joseph, for playing like pros. And to Walton for improving his out of timeout playcalls.

Kendogfunky
January 2, 2021 7:03 pm
Reply to  alwaysrite23

Elephant in the room, OK I’m going to say it. Fox has to be traded. I love Fox and I would have never suggested this if it wasn’t for T.H. This kid has what it takes to win games against good teams. Foxes weakness is his half court crunch time or momentum needing, game. Love him him in full court transition. But half court when we need him the most he turns into ISO guy with a forced fadeway. T.H. makes the best play for the situation. If Fox was hitting these shots then he would be fine. Players like KD do this, players that make the best play are more like LeBron. The KD style only works if you make the shots, not too many players can do this. Not sure how long Fox and T.H. can continue to play together. Fox is a starting point guard and may turn into that tough shot maker but TH is the shit now and is only a rookie! He must bring the ball up which turns Fox into an off guard, not his best position. Trade Fox now for a 1st round, tank the season get Cunningham. And watch T.H. turn into a star.

And Buddy you are not a point guard!

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