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2020 NBA Draft Profile: Saddiq Bey

Villanova's Saddiq Bey offers insane shooting efficiency and excellent defensive awareness, but is he the right pick for a Kings roster that may need a heavy rebuild?
By | 118 Comments | Aug 25, 2020

Saddiq Bey

General Info: 21-year-old Sophomore, played for Villanova University. From Charlotte, NC.

Measurables: 6’8″, 215 lbs, 6’10€ wingspan.

2019-20 Season Statistics: 16.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.4 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 1.5 TOPG (31 games played, 33.9 minutes a contest) €“ 47.7% FG, 76.9% FT, 45.1% 3P

Given the Sacramento Kings’ lack of player development success over the past decade, it’s easy to understand why Saddiq Bey is such a popular draft crush for Kings fans. Coming from Villanova, one of the most successful developmental colleges of the past decade, Bey is a well-rounded, high IQ player who can do a lot on the court and does it without ego. He’s such a multi-talented, high-floor player that I doubt even the Kangz could mess up – there’s no chance in my mind that Saddiq Bey doesn’t become a solid rotation-level player in the NBA, regardless of where he ends up. And in a messy draft (and cheering for a messy NBA team), that’s clearly a major plus.

Saddiq was the quintessential Villanova Wildcat – the culmination of everything that Coach Jay Wright looks for in a player. He’s an excellent shooter, finishing with insane efficiency on both his deep shot (45.1% on 175 attempts) and from the court overall 60.8% true shooting). He served as a jumbo-initiator for Nova, handling the ball and showcasing good awareness of the offense and a keen-eye for quick passes. And in the Wildcat’s switchable defense, he’d often start guarding the opponents’ best scorer regardless of position, with assignments including Devon Dotson of Kansas, Baylor’s Jared Butler, and Myles Powell of Seton Hall.

Villanova has been successful at producing NBA ready prospects because of this jack-of-all-trades approach – Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, Eric Paschall, Donte DiVincenzo, Jalen Brunson, and Ryan Arcidiacono have all played real versatile roles in the NBA this season. In an excellent interview on Sam Vecenie’s Game Theory podcast, Bey talked about why Villanova players have been having near-immediate impacts in the NBA.

€œJust being ready to adapt for any situation€¦I think the coaching staff really stresses player development, and trying to be the best complete player you can be, and not be typecast or saying that this is all you can do. And being ready for every role€¦. going to Nova, each year, your role can change, so I think that coming into the NBA, it’s whatever that team needs, and that you trust that you’ve had enough amount of work in college to adapt to any of those roles. I think that really helps.€

This €œwhatever the team needs€ line is one that every prospect will say in interviews, but with Bey, I believe him. There’s no ego to his game. In Villanova’s biggest win of the season – a 56-55 grind against top-ranked Kansas – Bey had just 7 points on 8 shots, his second lowest shot total of the season. But he finished with 5 assists, 7 rebounds, and some key defense against Dotson. Bey is a prospect who shines on the intangibles.

That said, I believe the idea of Saddiq Bey has somewhat exceeded who Saddiq Bey actually is, on both ends of the court. His floor as a prospect is very high, but I also doubt that he’ll vastly improve the ceiling of a rebuilding team. In this draft, that could certainly be enough – but in my opinion, fans need to consider Bey more a fringe-starter/excellent bench forward, rather than as a top-end starting prospect. He has clear limitations on both ends of the court that are getting buried in the allure of drafting a 3-and-D forward from the premiere 3-and-D collegiate program.

Bey’s most immediate NBA skill on offense is clearly his deep shot; he’s got both the volume (6.7 3PA per 40, nearly half his shot attempts) and success (45.1%) to back it up. According to Synergy Sports, he was in the damn 98th percentile for catch-and-shoot success this season; he shot a whopping 48.8% on all C&S attempts, but also shot 46.3% on guarded C&S shots, which is good for 96th percentile. His mechanics are clean (albeit with some fade and lean), his 6’10 wingspan keeps the ball away from defenders, and his shot is damn quick. And most importantly for a top-flight C&S player, he keeps himself moving, makes defenders stay with him, and is always ready for the pass. He can hit shots off the catch or off a quick hop.

Bey’s role also included an extensive amount of extra-large initiator work, and he finished with 2.8 assists per 40, a 1.5/1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and a 14.9% assist rate. His passing instincts and willingness to sling the ball to the more-open teammate are apparent in every Nova game. He almost always makes the right pass, and every once in a while he throws one with flourish. Forwards with his intersection of dribble/pass skills are clearly valuable at the NBA level, especially on a team like Sacramento that lacks redundancy in those skills.

(Side note: look at this full-court pass from Bey, which leads to buzzer-beating three. How many teams across both college and the pros would have just wasted the play giving their best shooter a half-court heave? I would sell a kidney to get Jay Wright to come coach my favorite NBA team.)

While Bey’s large offensive skillset gives him tremendous promise as a seamless role player, it’s unlikely that he can ever be depended on to create his own shot. Given his catch and shoot ability, the logical go-to  would be developing a shot off the dribble; it was a swing skill for Mikal Bridges (he’s gotten better at it since Nova), and it could be for Bey. But according to Synergy, Bey hit only 29.6% of his shots off the dribble. And if there is one part of Bey’s game that has been overrated, it’s his athleticism and physical tools; he’s a solidly quick end-to-end player, but he doesn’t have above-average explosiveness or burst.

Check out this play against Mississippi State, which rosters two 2020-draft-worthy players in Reggie Perry (#1) and Robert Woodard (#12).

The highlights of this play are obvious – Bey’s dribble is solid, he makes the pass when he needs to, and once Woodard bites on Jeremiah Robinson-Earl’s fake and Perry jumps to stop the drive, Bey immediately runs to the rim and is rewarded with a dunk. But the downsides are also obvious – Bey isn’t a player who will be able to beat NBA players on the drive. He lacks a quick first step, craftiness, or burst to be a big threat on defensive overplays. And while his cut to the hoop got him a dunk, he’s not an explosive or seamless leaper – he needs to load off both feet to get up, which lets the explosive Woodard get back into the picture and almost block the shot.

Bey aced most of his collegiate defensive assignments by being as smart or smarter than his cover; he keeps his feet moving, takes great angles, plays physical, and disrupts opponents with his length. He’s also a capable and willing help defender, an absolute necessity if you’re going to get minutes on Villanova. He didn’t get a ton of blocks or steals – just 0.9 steals and 0.5 blocks per 40, both absurdly low for a player with his defensive motor – but he’s a heady defender who handled a wide-array of opponents with his awareness and quick feet.

https://streamable.com/1m8vwi

Check out this play against Baylor – his assignment is Bears’ star guard Jared Butler, who inbounds the ball and curls around a mess of bodies to the top of the arc. Bey reads the play excellently, manages to run through two screens to get into the passing lane, and cuts off what should have been a pass for an open Butler three.

https://streamable.com/7uubcn

That said, Saddiq’s athletic limitations do show up against quicker guards, who can blast by him and offer no chance to recover. While he handled a wide range of covers at Nova, his defensive window will certainly shrink in the NBA. I trust that a player with Saddiq’s awareness and defensive motor will watch plenty of film and find ways to improve his range, but early in his career he should stick to guarding forwards, and those with extreme burst and explosiveness may still leave him in the dust. He is unlikely to be a long-term answer for top-tier scoring threats.

In the NBA draft, it’s very easy to fall into the trap of overrating athletic impact and underrating skill impact. Kings fans know this more than most. Bey is clearly a better basketball player than a lot of competitors in his draft range, including some who I will rank over him in my next Big Board update. But unless the Kings staff works some physical developmental magic, Bey will have average NBA tools, and will always need to rely on his basketball instincts, as excellent as they may be.

This draft isn’t enormously talented, but it strangely offers the Kings a range of talent and upside combinations that the next GM will have to seriously debate when they decide how best to reset Sacramento’s rebuild. Do you take Saddiq Bey, a high-floor, wide-skill-set, high-IQ player who will contribute no matter what? Do you take Patrick Williams, a higher-ceiling project player (albeit one whose floor I think detractors are underestimating) and go all-in on a heavier rebuild? Do you take Aaron Nesmith, a player who has mastered one role? The variance in the Kings range is incredible, even for a late-lottery pick, and whoever the next GM selects could say a lot about their approach to this rebuild. If the Kings were on the fringe of real playoff contention, Bey would be so far and away my draft preference that I’d have already bought a Saddiq #41 jersey in Kings black just to will his selection into existence. But as I expect a harsher rebuild is necessary to elevate the Kings to the postseason, I’m finding I prefer other, higher ceiling players like Williams, Tyrese Maxey, or Kira Lewis.

Saddiq Bey would be a fan favorite in Sacramento from day 1, and offers a wide skill set and a very high floor. That certainly could be enough to justify selecting him at pick No. 12. But if the next Kings General Manager opts for a stronger reset of this roster, don’t be surprised if Sacramento selects someone else.

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ManilaBayCleanerCrew
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August 25, 2020 9:00 am

Quick question: why the F can’t they fire Luke Walton and replace him with someone who’s a bit more competent?

Wonderchild
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August 25, 2020 10:16 am

because they haven’t hired a GM yet. And there’s no lead assistant left to immediately replace him yet.

BabalooMagoo
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August 25, 2020 1:17 pm
Reply to  Wonderchild

It hasn’t stopped them before…

TheFifthMookie
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August 25, 2020 11:26 am

I see 3 people who disagree but are unable/unwilling/afraid to write about their support for Walton or other reasons why it should be delayed. It’s a discussion blog, lay it out there!

Last edited 3 years ago by TheFifthMookie
Kosta
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August 25, 2020 4:25 pm
Reply to  TheFifthMookie

.
Thumbs up!

GorgeousGeorgios
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August 25, 2020 9:35 pm
Reply to  TheFifthMookie

It’s because the piece has nothing to do with the Kings coaching situation, nor do they need to address the coaching situation until the front office is settled.

I don’t want them to keep Walton either, but that doesn’t make it relevant to a piece on draft prospects.

RORDOG
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August 25, 2020 9:47 pm

I understand there aren’t any rules for when to choose to click the thumbs down icon. I just hope this place doesn’t turn into r/kings. I’m obviously not the arbiter of TKH decorum, but if I was, I’d say the thumbs down should be reserved for jokey situations, and when someone just says something that is extremely thumbs down worthy. If you simply disagree with someone, then reply or mutter to yourself “check out this dumbass”.

Kingarthur916
August 25, 2020 4:34 pm

I want Sam Cassel as the Next head coach ! Was a role player , NBA champion, point guard development history. Assistant to great coaches and winning programs . BASKETBALL IQ and players coach .

trade buddy to bucks for a first round pick ,George hill ( trade him to a 3rd team ) ,davinci vincenzo so much hidden potential offensive and already a top 10 defensive guard. Get a young local stretch power forward in DJ Wilson and ersan .

draft – Kira Lewis ,Josh green ,Stanley not a fan of draft Small forwards w out 7 foot wings spans they usually never work out

BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 9:54 am
Reply to  Kingarthur916

Green and Stanley are SFs without 7-foot wingspans.

PlayoffModeT
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August 25, 2020 9:01 am

Nice breakdown, Bryant. I like what he brings to the table.

As the initiator, I would definitely question if his assists are based off a system or if he is creating assists. I am not knocking his ability to be an initiator but if he comes here and has no system, can he be as effective?

sonny
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August 25, 2020 9:28 am
Reply to  PlayoffModeT

I am hoping we have a new GM and a new coach within 1.5 years minimum.
Maybe the new system and identity will take our frustrations out as Kings fans by then.

AirmaxPG
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August 25, 2020 4:02 pm
Reply to  sonny

I just don’t know why we would waste more time with a shitty coach. I hope they get a competent GM and let him make the call though. If Hinkie or Zarren or Webster want the job, but want their own coach right away… you don’t let Luke freaking Walton get in the way of that.

MichaelMack
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August 25, 2020 9:08 am

This is a terrific write up Bryant.

sonny
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August 25, 2020 9:22 am

Watched a lot of YouTube last night plus a few write-ups about him.
I became an instant fan. Kings should really keep the pick if he is on the board.

But the Kings really have to decide on what type of player they want.
Should that player be a back-up PG to Fox, a pure shooter, or a 3&D guy?

Of course, most of us call for the BPA – but if there’s not much glaring difference that separates 3 or 4 players in 3 different positions, then I think Kings should go for the best fit.

For PGs, I’m on board with Kira Lewis Jr as I’ve stated in previous threads.
He has lightning speed like Fox. Or Malachi Flynn of San Diego State.
He’s undersized at 6’1€ but has good court vision and high IQ.

For a shooter – I like Aaron Nesmith.

For wings, I like Williams and Saddiq Bey. But I’d rather have Bey because of Villanova’s culture and program.

I can guarantee that there are hidden gems in late spots as usual. It’s up to those gems to go to a good system and develop quickly; with a good coach that can trust them early and give a modest amount of playing time.

ZillersCat
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August 25, 2020 9:22 am

I’d probably try and trade the pick for Victor Oladipo, Indiana if possible, or push for him in free agency after 2021 season.

sonny
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August 25, 2020 9:25 am
Reply to  ZillersCat

Most Pacers fans are down on him this year. Got a big contract but regressed a bit after his injury.

BestHyperboleEver
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August 25, 2020 10:40 am
Reply to  sonny

Though I think most also understand that he just came back from major injury. I’m assuming they aren’t in a hurry to trade him.

Chent
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August 25, 2020 9:53 am

Really great analysis. This is the same issue I come across when evaluating these guys. At pick 12, do you gamble with potential guys who may be out of the rotation before they’re rookie contracts run out, or do you get a useful role player who could be a spot starter/6-8 man rotation player but not much more.

I would go in another direction. Will Bey ever reach Harrison Barnes level outcome? Idk, but I can definitely see him carve out a role on a good team (not us). The ironic thing from me is I would be happy with Patrick Williams but not with Bey. I just look at Williams and see more impactful role player potential, more defensive versatility, finishing ability (the 3 pt shot would need to get to 35%), rather than Bey who is the better all around player right now.

SPTSJUNKIE
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August 25, 2020 3:45 pm
Reply to  Chent

This is a great way of framing it and I think will define a lot of the debate here between now and the draft.

Given our lack of a second star to Fox (and some will argue Fox isn’t even a true #1 star) – I think there will be a material chunk of fans who will want to gamble on someone like Williams even if there was a 60% chance he was out of the league in 5 years and a 5% chance he developed into a top 20 player.

I think there will be an equally big group who will be more than happy to grab someone such as Nesmith who is almost certainly guaranteed to have some NBA rotation role for the next 10 years, but who may have less star potential due to his lack of creation.

The question is do you swing for the fences and try to make a step-change in one pick or do you build value with your asset and accumulate more value on the team that can be used in any number of moves to upgrade the team.

BestHyperboleEver
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August 25, 2020 4:27 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

I really don’t think Williams has that kind of upside. And, honestly, I’m surprised he’s getting that kind of billing. He’s definitely raw, but he doesn’t really show the athleticism or instincts that presage an elite development path. Now, obviously there are a lot of guys that know a lot more than I do that think I’m wrong. So I probably am. But I just don’t see a difference maker there and the low floor/pretty okay ceiling isn’t an archetype I get very excited about.

SPTSJUNKIE
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August 25, 2020 8:52 pm

I’m still working it out, but I lean towards you perspective. We have posted together long enough, you probably know that I personally favor high basketball IQ / skilled players (so long as they have the minimum required athleticism) over raw players.

I think Williams has upside based on being so young, being athletic, and having some semblance of skill. But as of today, I would be hard pressed to take him at #12 with what I think will be better options on the board.

Chent
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August 25, 2020 9:37 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

I agree with both of you about the risk with Williams. He is a hit or miss prospect, so although he currently is my favorite at the moment that opinion could change. I dont look at Williams nor Bey as secondary or tertiary ball-handlers, which takes away a little from Bey due to the more polished game. So now that I’m viewing them as simply 3 and D, I lean more toward the guy who could be the better defender, get a few steals and blocks. The irony there is Bey is a lot better right now in both categories 3 and D.

I am also really into bbiq and playmaking like both of you. But if your not going to have a playmaking role in any capacity, how hard is learning the fundamentals of 3 and D, Moving the ball and being in the right spots, reading the plays? Is that something Williams can develop? Those are questions that would have to be answered before he’s picked.

Chent
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August 25, 2020 9:15 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

Its tough to evaluate where this team should go. I dont think Williams will be that good, I see a scenario where he can be an elite role player and be a malleable piece for any roster, and that’s why I like him. someone who can guard 3-5 avg 1.5 blocks and steals, rebound and hit a few threes. My issue with that is I don’t know how realistic that is and I may be banking on his potential more than I should. The main way I differentiate my preference for Pat Will or Bey is choosing between a potential elite role player in Williams, or a good role player in Bey. I lean more towards gambling on a higher end role player, but I must admit that type of call with someone as raw as Williams can look really bad while Bey is a starter somewhere.

As far as finding the 1B piece this team needs, I dont see it in this draft, I really like Tyrell Terry as a guy who could be a 1B, but im not close to sold on that idea. Evaluating team needs for the time being, I believe we need to have a bad record next year for a high pick, we need to have Fox get comfortable shooting the ball, we need to see Bagley on the court along with Jeffries and our draft picks.

anan1234
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August 25, 2020 10:05 am

He’s my top choice so far. His biggest knock is he is not super athletic which does not worry me. He seems to have good understanding of positioning on both sides of the ball which I am high on. Shoots the 3 at a high clip as well. Has a wide range of skills he may not be great at but his is no slouch either. Develop his skills more and he becomes so versatile. Very well rounded kid.

BestHyperboleEver
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August 25, 2020 10:39 am
Reply to  anan1234

His biggest knock is really just having a low ceiling. He’s a good bet to be a decent 5-8 guy in a rotation. But not to be any more than that. Basically, a Barnes/Morris type. A guy that won’t hurt you, but isn’t going to raise your ceiling either.

eddie41
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August 25, 2020 10:54 am

A guy who can step in on day one and be a decent 5-8 guy in a rotation at pick 12 in this year’s draft sounds pretty good to me. The upside with Bey I think, apart from his shooting, is his ability to get into the paint, and be a patient and effective playmaker from there. He and Bogdan could work well together. Play them together and I think that does raise the team’s ceiling.

BestHyperboleEver
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August 25, 2020 11:19 am
Reply to  eddie41

I didn’t say Day 1. And I think you’re overstating his playmaking ability.

eddie41
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August 25, 2020 2:32 pm

check out a good clip of his offense, like 30 minutes or an hour. While he does not have a great first step, he has enough to get an angle. From the perimeter, he can work his way to about 10 feet from the basket. From there, unlike many other players, he has patience to read the defense and make the right play. If you double him, he can move the ball. If you don’t, he can get a nice high percentage shot and maybe draw a foul. For a guy who is a 3-point specialist, that is something valuable. Nothing spectacular but effective. And I do think he has the capacity to adjust to the nba quickly.

RORDOG
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August 25, 2020 2:57 pm
Reply to  eddie41

I’m willing to go out on a limb and guess BHE is basing his opinion on watching plenty of Villanova games. That doesn’t mean his opinion is correct, but he’s one of the few people on these threads that actually watches college basketball.

Personally, I think that shit’s boring to watch, and would much rather base my opinions on 3 minute highlight videos, but to each their own.

RORDOG
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August 25, 2020 4:08 pm
Reply to  Bryant

The RORDOG guide to draft analysis:

  1. stare at college players ranked by BPM for a while
  2. look at a few highlight vids of the guys near the top of the list
  3. Do a google image search to see what their frame looks like
  4. Read or watch an interview or two to determine if he seems nervous, cocky, cerebral, etc.
  5. Finally, read your draft articles. If we agree, then that means my opinion is obviously correct. If not, then that means your opinion is obviously incorrect.
BestHyperboleEver
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August 25, 2020 4:31 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

That’s not a bad process at all, all things considered. It’s much more than most people do.

RORDOG
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August 25, 2020 8:07 pm

The actual first step is slightly more complicated. I like swiss army knife type players, so I sort by the following criteria: >10 REB%, >10 AST%, >2 STL%, >1.5 BLK%. Then I basically just look at the top 20-30 players ranked by BPM. Here’s the players that fit that criteria in this draft:

Xavier Tillman
Killian Tillie
Devon Vassell
Tyler Bey
Desmond Bane
Paul Reed

It’s obviously a very simplistic way of looking at this stuff, but I’m a simple man. If I found a genie lantern, and I got 3 draft wishes from that list, then I’d be pretty stoked.

Also, you know who fit that criteria last season? Our boy DaQuan Jefferies. He had the 20th highest BPM for players that fit my subjective criteria.

The other guy that actually would’ve made my list last year, and just missed this year (1.3 BLK%) is Trevelin Queen. What’s up with that guy? I know Brad picked him in the mock draft. I just assumed it was a joke though since it was Brad. Queen gets the RORDOG seal of approval because he’s also fun to watch, and just does a lot of cool shit. Not sure about his scoring ability though. He seems to miss a lot of bunnies and take ill advised threes.

SPTSJUNKIE
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August 25, 2020 8:49 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

I’m honestly a bit perplexed that Reed is that low in mocks so far.

Productive player who improved very season who has a good height / wingspan combination, the lateral speed to guard the perimeter, a strong motor, good fluidity / athleticism, and is fairly skilled.

I understand his issues and why he is not a lottery pick. But given the meh talent in this draft, it’s really mystifies me why nearly every mock has him in the second round.

RORDOG
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August 25, 2020 9:10 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

That’s what I’ve been saying! The dude is an absolute beast. He just shoots the ball like he decided one day to invent a new shooting style, so I assume that scares some folks (he also probably overestimates his ability to dribble drive at times). He’s just a fun player to watch, who always seems to find a way to be productive. If he can develop a quicker more compact release on his jumper, then he’ll be an absolute steal.

BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 6:44 am
Reply to  RORDOG

This is right. I think people are scared off by the shot while needs to be completely rebuilt, and the fact that the reckless abandon shows up on both ends of the court for better or worse.

But I would be happy with him at 35 and LOVE him at 43.

SPTSJUNKIE
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August 26, 2020 7:27 am

Yeah, his shot is clearly an issue, but seems like it should be fixable given he hit 74%+ of his FTs the last two seasons.

Also agree he can be reckless at times, but I think at least part of that was his role at DePaul. It’s possible that he’s stubborn and will have a WCS’ type of attitude, but I’d also imagine that coming into the league playing more of a role in an offense instead of the second highest usage will help.

If he can pick his spots better and not try to force as many passes, he has an attractive skill set and athleticism / wingspan.

Completely understand why he’s not a lottery pick, but his negatives don’t really seem any worse to me than other guys in the 20s and 30s, but his upside and NBA abilities seem higher than some of them. Unless he comes back with some character red flags – I have to imagine he rises closer to the draft and isn’t available at 35.

BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 7:33 am
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

I think the hard part for me about his shot is more that he’s gotten 3 seasons into college and hasn’t fixed it yet. His FT% suggests he has some touch. He may very well jump back up but, over time, as people have had time to review prospects and watch film, it seems like he’s only fallen on most prognosticators boards. After the first couple weeks, Reed was consistently ranked as a lottery pick.

Like I said, I personally rank him pretty highly, but I see what the skeptics are saying.

RORDOG
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August 25, 2020 8:59 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

Now watch this interview with Queen (it has college dorm level production quality FYI):

At first, he seems to have WCS vibes. But if you listen, he talks like someone who understands the game is a lot like a speed chess match. It’s pretty impressive. Plus I learned he’s from PG County which is like the ultimate NBA player breeding ground.

Here’s an article that goes into more detail about how he got to where he is. I would give my pinky toe nail if the Kings drafted this guy with the #52 pick. He just seems like such a fun guy to root for.

Chent
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August 25, 2020 9:42 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

The Kings need to draft the Queen!!! I mentioned that in a previous thread and BestHyperbole agreed… Which makes me have a litttle more confidence in that opinion. I dont see why he is not talked about more.

RORDOG
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August 25, 2020 10:02 pm
Reply to  Chent

Honestly, I think a biggish flaw in the evaluation process is that the stat projectors can be too rigid about age and the level of competition. Sometimes you need to be able to look at a player and consider their circumstances. The dude was homeless and never really had a HS career, then bounced around to a bunch of JUCOs before landing at NMSU. You almost have to throw the normal developmental curve out the window. Obviously, his path may still ultimately cap his upside, but I still think its unfair to make apples to apples comparisons with similar age players that took a more traditional path.

Last edited 3 years ago by RORDOG
RikSmits
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August 26, 2020 6:54 am
Reply to  RORDOG

The Kings need a Queen. How can that be in dispute? And serfs. If there’s some called Serf I’d pick him. No Serbs though. I’ve had enough of those.

RORDOG
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August 26, 2020 9:56 am
Reply to  RikSmits

Let’s bring in Brandon Knight and Taurean Prince while we’re at it, then hire Tayshaun Prince to help develop the rooks.

RikSmits
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August 26, 2020 10:13 am
Reply to  RORDOG

We also need a guy called Jester. We only had a Jeter.

BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 10:15 am
Reply to  RikSmits

That guy was Pooh.

AirmaxPG
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August 26, 2020 10:40 am
Reply to  RikSmits

We could trade everyone for a Joker.

jokic.jpg
BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 6:59 am
Reply to  RORDOG

And one of those JUCOs was a military institute!

Yeah, I wouldn’t count on him (or any other 53rd pick) to be great, but I think he’s among the types you look for late in the draft. Someone who’s pick status may be depressed for the wrong reasons. It’s interesting to me how often guys fall because they took an unorthodox path. I’m big on analytics to inform decision making and narrow the field, but as we know, if we’re too tied to our algorithm, we miss chances to find guys that are outliers not because of talent, but because of path. Good examples of another type are Mitchell Robinson and Darius Bazley in the past couple drafts. Clear lottery talents that fell at least 10-20 picks because they didn’t play in the NCAA.

BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 7:19 am

I’ll add that I’ve realized that this is a bit of a tendency with me. In a draft where I don’t see good high-end options, I really lean on upperclassmen. In this draft it’s Tillman and Bane. In 2016, my plan was built on Prince, Levert, and Bembry.

eddie41
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August 26, 2020 9:26 am

I like that way of thinking, especially for this team, and I have no problem using a #12 pick on that type of guy over a young pup that looks dapper on the sidelines who won’t do anything till his second contract for another team. My five are Tillman, Bey, Flynn, but that is mostly based on recent research and not years of watching these guys. I looked at some Bane highlights too. could be the best shooter in the draft, and he looks explosive. I like Haliburton and Toppin also but doubt they’ll fall to 12

BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 6:46 am
Reply to  RORDOG

Yeah, he’s my guy with that last pick. Love him. Love his story. Love his effort. Love his personality.

eddie41
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August 26, 2020 10:05 am

Interesting you said last pick because I’m thinking Bane could impact the game like Isaiah Thomas. Not the same position, but a confident dude who will just bomb from three and has explosiveness. People don’t rank him high because he’s a senior and he has short arms and he’s not really a ball handler, but if he can run down the floor, get some separation and swish a long three, I’m listening.

BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 10:08 am
Reply to  eddie41

I was talking about Queen for our last pick. I love Bane as well, but he’s more of a late-1st guy.

RORDOG
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August 26, 2020 10:14 am

Yeah I realize I can fall into a trap since there’s a fine line between wanting a player to succeed due to his story, and believing his story is a factor in why he will succeed. But when I watch Trev play, I see a tremendous athlete that’s skilled and plays very instinctually. He just lacks the polish of some of the other players because he didn’t come up through the AAU pipeline. He just seems like the perfect guy to send to Stockton to refine his game.

Chent
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August 25, 2020 9:46 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

I have to say that if I were the Kings im trading up to the late first to draft Tillman. He would be the type of guy who is a steal as a late pick because he plays fundamental basketball and will stick to his role.

eddie41
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August 25, 2020 10:16 pm
Reply to  Chent

I think Tillman should be a lottery pick.

BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 7:05 am
Reply to  eddie41

He’s definitely among my favorite 14 players.

eddie41
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August 25, 2020 10:17 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

that’s a nice list of players.

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August 26, 2020 6:21 am
Reply to  RORDOG

Tillman is on my list. The leader by effort on defense is something the current Kings team lacks. I think any player busting their butts with effort has to rub off. It would be a can’t miss pick. The Kings should not miss out in drafting him. But at 12?

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August 26, 2020 6:57 am
Reply to  ZillersCat

Like Bazemore’s effort rubbed off on D for the rest of the team?

BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 7:03 am
Reply to  ZillersCat

Nope, in some combination of moves (down from 12, trading Buddy, S&T Bogdan, use 2nds to move up, etc.) get two non-lottery 1sts and take Tillman and Bane. Plug and play, high effort, strong, skilled, team-oriented, high-BBIQ, mature.

eddie41
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August 26, 2020 9:28 am

If you like Tillman that much, why not take him at 12?

BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 10:02 am
Reply to  eddie41

Because I think we may be able to get Tillman AND something else. I mean, if my lottery inside information says that I can’t because Tillman will go higher than he’s being projected or because nobody is interested in trading for the 12th pick, then sure, take him at 12.

The problem with my position is that I don’t really have any inside information. It’s entirely possible that the Spurs are planning on taking Tillman at 13, so my idea is moot. I have to base my ideas on mock drafts and second/third hand publicized info from guys like Vecenie and Woj.

That’s what happened in 2016. The Kings, after the trade, had #13, #22, & #28. I was pretty confident they could easily get Prince, Levert, and Bembry with those picks. Then Prince went at 12, Levert at 20, and Bembry at 21.

I would like to think a good, dialed-in FO, would have a much better feel for who will and won’t be available at their picks than I do.

eddie41
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August 26, 2020 10:07 am

then, I think if we don’t have that info, it might be better just to grab our guys.

BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 10:10 am
Reply to  eddie41

Well, I don’t actually have the power to grab anybody. The entire exercise is purely academic for me.

If the decision makers are in that position, then yes, they should just take their guy and not worry about it being a reach or not. Assuming they have A GUY. And not a group of guys they rank similarly.

BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 6:42 am
Reply to  RORDOG

Well, your process has happened to spit out a list that includes a lot of my guys. I’ve said many times that I’d rather trade down and take Tillman and Bane. I love both of those guys. I like Reed a lot too, But more as a second round guy. I love his energy and defensive upside. I think his shot is just soooooo jacked. It’s going to have to be completely rebuilt if he ever wants to be effective away from the rim.

Tillie I’m okay with as a late pick flyer. I love his skill and profile, but he just can’t stay on the court.

markdog333
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August 25, 2020 7:04 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

There has to be some leg hair analysis in there too

eddie41
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August 25, 2020 3:44 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

I respect BHE’s opinion either way but if he has watched plenty of Nova games, I want to hear more. For Saddiq Bey, there is a good video on youtube, one hour and 22 minutes.

BestHyperboleEver
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August 25, 2020 4:30 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

If there’s one thing I’m sure of, it’s that nobody should ever go out on a limb defending my opinion. A waist-sized branch, maybe. But still probably not.

BestHyperboleEver
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August 25, 2020 4:18 pm
Reply to  eddie41

I can’t say exactly, but I tend to catch a good handful of Nova games each season. I really love Jay Wright’s teams. So I’ve probably seen at least a dozen of Bey’s games. The thing I agree with you on is that he doesn’t get sped up. He plays calmly and comfortably at his pace. But again, I think you’re overrating his playmaking. I think he’ll struggle to create good shots for himself and while he’ll make the pass in front of him, he won’t create many opportunities. What I’d be comfortable projecting for Bey is a decent spot up shooter, a somewhat versatile average defender, and a decent ball mover.

Something similar to a Marcus Morris/Barnes level of impact if things go right.

eddie41
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August 25, 2020 5:51 pm

that’s good to know. It’s a single that we shouldn’t try to stretch out into a double.

SPTSJUNKIE
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August 26, 2020 9:59 am

It’s funny, because I can sort of see a poor man’s Harrison Barnes with him (which is probably better than it sounds as Barnes has been a career starter, even if he’s overpaid).

I think Bey can straight line drive, but will struggle to create in the NBA. Maybe he could do some light P&R eventually with the right matchup, but he’s really going to struggle to create in ISO against NBA defenses.

Seems like a smart guy and a hard worker, so he should be able to carve out a role. But I don’t think he’ll be able to create or be a lockdown defender – so he’ll sort of have to carve out value as a 3/4 shooter and solid, switchable defender.

There’s value there. But given the downside as well – strikes me as a bit unambitious for the 12th pick, even in this draft.

anan1234
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August 25, 2020 2:53 pm

Being a 5 is starting so I would like that. Thing I would like to tweak about Barnes is to have better 3pt shooting and playmaking which I think if Bey develops he can fit that bill.

eddie41
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August 25, 2020 10:05 am

Solid player, for all the things you mentioned. He was asked to do a lot on the court for Villanova last year and he managed very well. I think he’ll get picked in the top 10 after some of the GMs realize how much fool’s gold is in this year’s draft. If he falls to 12, take the solid single. He could replace Bazemore in year one, and it won’t be long before he will be a solid starter in the league who everybody overlooks, thinks he’s sort of a meh player, but he’ll be quietly effective.

SPTSJUNKIE
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August 25, 2020 10:10 am

Great write up. So there is no single metric that guarantees success or failure of a prospect, but I will say his lack of applied athleticism stats is a big red flag.

There is no 100% cut off or key difference between getting for example 0.9 or 1.0 steals per 40, but players who are low on both of those (especially if they are not close to 1.0 on each, i.e., 0.8 STL, 0.9 BLK) it’s a bit of a red flag they may not have the athleticism needed to excel in the NBA.

But dating back to 2005 – there are 70 players I have in my database who have failed to hit a steal or block per 40 minutes. Of those, the list of even decent players is very short. The best so far are:

+ Devin Booker
+ Ryan Anderson
+ Aaron Afflalo
+ Lauri Markkanen
+ Tim Hardaway Jr
+ Rodney Hood
+ Kyle Kuzma

That’s it – 2 great outcomes, 1 TBD, and a couple of ok scorers who really struggled on defense. And the top two on the list were elite shooters who could shoot off the dribble, move, screen, handoff, etc. And even in Booker’s case, there a little bit of a asterisk as he only played 21mpg as a backup.

Again, this isn’t to say that Bey can’t be a good player. Just that there’s a big red flag here and he is really going to need some strong ancillary skills to overcome that. I always take Synergy with a grain of salt – even more so in an abbreviated season – but Bey’s overall shooting numbers are a mixed bag (good off screen and spot up, but bad off dribble and hand off).

He passes well enough and seems like a smart player, which I like, but I think there is a lot of risk here and I am not sure if he will come in with an NBA skill to hang his hat on other than “spot up shooter.”

My guess is that there will be someone with more upside / better floor available at #12.

eddie41
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August 25, 2020 10:38 am
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

that’s not a bad list of players, but Anderson and Markanen don’t belong there (different position) and Kuzma does not belong there either (no defensive awareness). I think your opinion of Bey will improve if you look at him as a skilled offensive player who shot 45% from 3, and who can hold his own on defense, rather than a 3&D specialist.

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August 25, 2020 12:05 pm
Reply to  eddie41

I can see the Kuzma comp. To me, they have similar physical profiles. Bey looks a bit more athletic with limitations.

The first questions I have are his dribbling, playmaking, and lateral quickness. I also would hope he could be what Justin Jackson was supposed to be, should we chose him.

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August 25, 2020 12:34 pm
Reply to  eddie41

I mean, that’s a mediocre list and it’s out of 70 players.

I could also give you the list of Stauskas, Knight, Luke Zeller, Hunter, Decker, Lyles, Kennard, Shabazz Muhammad, etc.

It’s a risky group and the few successes have tended to be elite shooters beyond catch and shoot.

Again, this is just a red flag, doesn’t mean Bey can’t be successful, but think he is navigating a narrower window.

BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 10:14 am
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

I kinda see Bey as the slightly older (I think? I should check), smaller version of Reed. As such, if I’m looking for a long, athletic, energy defender type I”m probably taking Reed since I see them going in the same general range.

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August 25, 2020 3:47 pm
Reply to  Bryant

OBoards as well. There’s a lot of ways to show athleticism and it’s certainly a red flag if someone can’t really do any of them well.

Curious if you think Bey has a skill other than spot up shooting that is developed enough to help him play if he’s lackluster on defense?

Want2win
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August 25, 2020 6:15 pm
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

Dang I was on record as sayin Bey all Day on earlier this year.. now you have popped my bubble..now I need to say what the hell let’s draft Vassell

RORDOG
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August 25, 2020 10:25 am

This draft really does feel like the type of draft in which a top notch scouting and analytics department could really have fun. If that was my job, I’d think I’d prefer this type of draft over the ones that have more defined tiers.

eddie41
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August 26, 2020 9:31 am
Reply to  RORDOG

Indeed, while listening to Parliament’s Funkentelechy “would you trade your funk for what’s behind the third door?”

BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 10:06 am
Reply to  RORDOG

There’s definitely some geek-interest in this type of draft. The challenge of picking out the wheat from the chaff is a fun for me. I tend to have more fun trying to pick late-1st/2nd round sleepers than top 10 guys anyway. And this draft is nothing but late-1st/2nd round types!

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Nostradumbass 14
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August 25, 2020 10:35 am

Great breakdown. From your description he sounds like he might be better used as a stretch 4 more than a wing. Your breakdown lends me to think he is more a Marcus or Markieff Morris, or even a Nemaja type player than a legit 3 and D wing due to his lack of quickness and athleticism.

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August 25, 2020 10:40 am

Great breakdown-thanks Bryant.

I like Bey…but to me, his ceiling is Robert Covington. Is that great for the Kings, yes…but that’s his absolute CEILING. His floor-he’s not athletic enough to guard anyone on switches, rebound, or create his own shot and he’s out of the league in 4 years. To me, with this team, he just doesn’t move the needle.

I think there are 3 guys that I would prefer over him, and if they are on the board-I hope the Kings take them. If they aren’t on the board at 12, hopefully the Kings traded the pick.

  1. Vassell
  2. Okoro
  3. Nesmith

Not to mention if Deni or Killian fall.

The Kings have a lot of holes and a lot of questions that need to be answered first. Who’s the Gm? What are they going to do with Buddy/Bogi? Are Giles, Len, or Bazemore coming back? This is a crazy offseason for the Kings (which seems to be normal)…and it’s more exciting then the actual season haha.

sonny
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August 25, 2020 11:37 am
Reply to  jlandweh

Speaking of FSU players (Vassell and Williams), the 2021 draft will probably bring out another steal – a baby-Jokic type in Baksa Koprivica. 7’1€ agile and mobile with good passing skills.

sonny
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August 25, 2020 11:38 am
Reply to  sonny

Balsa not Baksa…
this keypad tho…

BestHyperboleEver
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August 25, 2020 1:46 pm
Reply to  sonny

I really hope they play him and Cisse together a lot next season. But it’s FSU. Which means they’ll probably both get 15 minutes a game along with a dozen other guys.

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August 25, 2020 10:43 am

Great stuff! My draft prospect analysis usually ends after shooting percentages and body metrics. Glad someone else is doing the heavy lifting!

RORDOG
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August 25, 2020 11:15 am

Speaking of Beys, I’d be interested to hear the draft experts thoughts on Tyler Bey. He has obvious limitations, but he at least seems interesting if available in the late first or early second round. I’m already on record as having a soft spot for guys I think would be fun to watch (my person fave ATM from that perspective is Paul Reed). Fox and T Bey running in transition, and combining for monster dunks would fit that bill. Plus he seems to be one of the better wing defenders in this class, and the Kings are obviously lacking in that dept.

eddie41
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August 25, 2020 2:24 pm
Reply to  RORDOG

We chatted about Tyler Bey in an earlier thread. He’s worth a gamble in the 2nd round. Great defense, motor, rebounding, athleticism. He is mostly a 12 feet and in player, and he’s not bad from there. Right now he is a liability on offense but I think once he learns to hit the three and adapts to what his new position will be in the nba, he could be a decent 3 & D specialist with some ability to mix it up in the paint.

RORDOG
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August 25, 2020 4:21 pm
Reply to  Bryant

The RORDOG Draft Analysis is undefeated

RikSmits
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August 25, 2020 11:17 am

Great stuff. Looks like a nice player, but that is not we need right now.

We need a franchise changer. This guy will barely move the needle, with all due respect to him.

I’d rather trade the pick, or package it with a player and get ammunition for next year’s draft. That would also give our new GM the time to set up a good support and development system for young guys.

eddie41
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August 25, 2020 3:48 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

I think you’re mining fool’s gold when you should be looking for copper.

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August 25, 2020 3:51 pm
Reply to  RikSmits

I think this is sort of the direction you are going with trading the pick – but one way to get a franchise changer is the use the pick on a young, cost-effective rotational player.

One of our biggest sins the last few years is using our assets inefficiently. If in two years we have a kid on a rookie contract, who looks like a legitimate NBA player and is playing well in our system, that’s a great way to upgrade via trade.

That’s part of how the Rockets got Harden, the Clippers got Paul George, the Mavs got KP, etc. That is if there’s not a lottery-bound team willing to trade next year’s pick for one this year.

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August 25, 2020 11:19 am

My dislike of the Waltons has exponentially grown in the last year. I was prepared to give Luke a good shot and not judge the son by the sins of the father but after that start and then everything since he’s solidified his family as persona-non-grata in Sactown.

Last edited 3 years ago by Hippity_Hop_Barbershop
MaybeNextYear
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August 25, 2020 11:29 am

He sounds a lot like Buddy Hield.

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August 25, 2020 11:30 am

comment image

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August 25, 2020 4:31 pm
Reply to  RobHessing

The Gobert Report?

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August 25, 2020 4:33 pm
Reply to  Kosta

comment image

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August 25, 2020 12:05 pm

3 & D player who has a high BBIQ? Sounds like a perfect fit for the Kings. That means they’re going to pass.

AmateurNerd
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August 25, 2020 1:18 pm

I’m over with drafting players based on potential. The Kings organization has proved incapable of developing talent for years now. Walton is a “coach” with emphasis on the asterisks. Draft Bey or somebody like him– a player with polished skills and a high floor who can contribute no matter what nonsense and incompetence takes place in the organization around him.

RikSmits
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August 26, 2020 5:06 am
Reply to  AmateurNerd

I get your point and agree with it to an extent.

I just think that all is moot until we have a good FO in place that promotes a healthy and positive company culture and sets clear goals towards the future, with accountability as its main component.

Otherwise we will most likely keep spinning our wheels, or just hope to luck into a franchise altering player such as LBJ. Even so, you could argue how that has not worked for the Pels and AD. Maybe they’ll get it right with Zion.

Last edited 3 years ago by RikSmits
Want2win
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August 25, 2020 6:06 pm

I bet his rookie season will be more productive then Marvin bagley’s sophomore year

LesJepsen3pointer
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August 26, 2020 4:13 am

Draftees should be skilled or have foot speed. Drafting a player without either, like Patrick Williams, makes absolutely no sense. Players usually do not develop foot speed. Why not take a player that already has a baseline of skills to build upon? Someone who knows how to be a high usage player? I saw Reggie Perry, Kira Lewis, Patrick Williams and Devin Vassell play in person last season. I don’t get the Patrick Williams hype. At all. Reggie and Kira carried their teams. They’re both highly skilled. Kira has a high ceiling. I’d absolutely consider taking him at 12. Get players, figure it out. 12 is ideal to draft a PG with a high ceiling. Lots of options. Reggie Perry is a skilled basketball player, which is a good trait in a basketball player. Don’t over think it. Listen to Carmichael Dave. FSU has a great system. Devin may be an exception, I wouldn’t push it too far.

LesJepsen3pointer
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August 26, 2020 4:23 am

By the way, this was a top notch profile. I learned a lot! Thanks Bryant, I look forward to these every year.

ajonez81
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August 26, 2020 7:06 am

Nice article Bryant, I def vote for major rebuild for the Kings. We’re not going to become a perennial playoff team until we draft 2 or 3 All-Star players so we need to lose now.
The Sixers aren’t amazing but in 2015-2016 they won 10 games and now they have Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, which at least gets them playoffs every year and some options moving forward. The TWolves have Big Cat, Russel, and a #1 pick etc.
Don’t care much about this draft but set up for the future. Bogi is just not worth keeping and should be given a chance somewhere else while we rebuild. Strip down roster and keep Fox, hopefully he will still be here when we turn this around and draft a top 10 player in the league superstar to go with him.

BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 7:14 am
Reply to  ajonez81

As I’ve mentioned, even if you don’t envision Bogdan as part of the next good Kings team, I think he’s probably worth keeping this offseason. I don’t see him getting a big deal, which means once the league cap is out from under COVID and a couple years away from China, I think the contract he signs this summer will likely be seem as a great value, giving him more trade value. Whether that’s the right call or not, I don’t know. But I hope the new FO is thinking more broadly than just this offseason. I hope they’ll look at each player they decide is expendable and figure out how to get the most value out of them.

Adamsite
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Nostradumbass 14
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August 26, 2020 8:00 am

I had a minor thought tangent on Bogi’s future. If the money is not there this offseason for him, could he possibly go and sign a one year deal in Europe? I mean, they have their shit more together over there. He could live a more normal life there. Hell, the NBA may be bubbled through next summer. Why not spend a season overseas rather than sign a long term deal that may be below his market value due to COVID.

He could return next summer, when hopefully the NBA can return to some normalcy, and he might be able to sign a more lucrative long term deal.

From that point, might it be wise for any free agent to sign a one year deal to play overseas?

BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 8:32 am
Reply to  Adamsite

The lifestyle question is an interesting one. If we’re just talking about money the 1-year play would be to just accept the QO. That would pay him about twice as much as the richest deals in Euroleague. His QO, I believe, is around $10MM. While as far as I know Mirotic has the highest annual salary in Euroleague at around $5MM. I was thinking about that same thing earlier. I just wonder if the difference in market may be evened out by the fact that he would be one of the better FA options on the market this year, but WAY down the list next year.

Last edited 3 years ago by BestHyperboleEver
Adamsite
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August 26, 2020 8:44 am

It also makes me wonder about minimum level guys. Folks like Alex Len, Corey Brewer, or even Bazemore. Could they opt to take a one year deal in Europe and live in relative normalcy, for not just themselves, but their families?

I think Bazemore could make somewhere between $2-4M, with lifestyle perks included, in Europe or make $4-6M here in the states, but in the bubble. It may give some folks a second thought about their future.

SPTSJUNKIE
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August 26, 2020 8:57 am
Reply to  Adamsite

We have a group of friends where we have traveled every New Years to somewhere international for a different type of experience. For awhile we were unsure if this year would happen due to the threat of coronavirus. Now we are unsure if it will happen since nowhere else wants to accept American travelers, but ironically, most of those countries would be much safer than the US.

BestHyperboleEver
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August 26, 2020 10:07 am
Reply to  SPTSJUNKIE

Travel? What’s that?

eddie41
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August 26, 2020 9:13 pm

I figured it out. All the sports agents think of Sacramento as a farm team for young players to “work on their game” (eg., Bagley) and for veterans who prefer a big payday over winning (eg., Barnes, and maybe 20 others). So the sports agents do their matchmaking and keep Sacramento in the farm team loop. I like Saddiq Bey, but I might prefer to trade Marvin Bagley for a pick that gets us Xavier Tillman and then use the #12 pick for Malachi Flynn. New identity. Team basketball. Skilled players. Competitive on both ends of the floor. Gamers. Blue Collar guys who play every day and want to win. Leadership on the court. Grab guys who embody the new identity, including the three 2nd rounders. And yes, resign Bogi and try to resign Giles.

LLcoolRay
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August 27, 2020 1:46 pm
Reply to  eddie41

I LOVE Malachi Flynn, went to SDSU and watched him play in person multiple times. I want him on this team very badly.

All that being said, using the #12 pick on him would be a huge mistake. He should not be picked before the mid-20s in my opinion.

eddie41
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August 28, 2020 11:49 pm
Reply to  LLcoolRay

thanks LLCoolRay. I like to hear your opinion. You MUST know Malachi way more than I do because you went to SDSU and watched him play in person many times. That is cool, I appreciate that. Now would you please listen to yourself. “I want him on this team very badly” you say. come on man. Mid 20’s? Mid 30’s? Mid 10’s? what’s the difference? Draft the guys YOU WANT!!!

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