2020 NBA Draft Profile: Josh Green

Josh Green

NBA Position: SG/SF

General Info: 19-year-old Freshman, played for Arizona. Born in Sydney, Australia, moved to America to play High School basketball in Florida and Arizona.

Measurables: 6’6″, 210 lbs, 6’10€ wingspan.

2016-17 Season Statistics: 12.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.5 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 2.1 TOPG (30 games played, 30.9 minutes a contest) €“ 42.4% FG, 78.0% FT, 36.1% 3P

Confession time: I love watching high-motor defenders thrive in college basketball. Even with some serious question marks surrounding his offensive skill set, Arizona wing Josh Green has become one of my favorite players to watch thanks to his relentless on- and off-ball defensive intensity and skill. Arizona featured three fun-to-watch freshman this season, with Nico Mannion and Zeke Nnaji leading the way in both points and national attention, but Green should be the first Wildcat selected in the 2020 NBA draft. Check out this highlight against fellow 2020 draftee Jaden McDaniels.

Green is one of the more disruptive defenders in the class, and showed the ability to guard nearly anyone Sean Miller asked him too. His best defensive trait is certainly his motor – defensive intensity you rarely see in one-and-done 19 year olds – but his combination of athletic tools also help make him a high-floor defensive prospect. He has excellent quickness, dynamic hops, a 6’10 wingspan, and the ability to flip direction on a dime.

Even as a freshman, Green was regularly tasked with guarding the opposing premier perimeter scoring threat while providing the versatility needed to spot anyone 1 through 3 effectively, and had some success on 4s. His defensive range will shrink some when he hits the NBA level, as he’s only 6’6, but he’s already got a strong frame and isn’t afraid of physicality. He won’t be as big of a bother against solid initiators who have both the muscle to counter his strength and the dribble control to counter his quickness, and he’ll also need to bulk up significantly before he’ll be able to cover stronger forwards. But assuming he lands with a smart NBA training staff, he looks to have all the tools and quick instincts to become an excellent, versatile on-ball defender.

Green’s stock (steal and block) rates aren’t astronomical (2 steals and 0.9 blocks per 40), but the numbers hide just how disruptive he was. He makes life harder on his man, but he’s also liable to snake in and cause havoc when off the ball. He does need to get better at staying grounded, as he is apt to bite on fakes. He can also get caught ball watching and find himself a step behind his assignment when smart teams run screens at him. That said, teams regularly failed to realize how quickly he could snatch away what looked like clear passes. I’m sure Green’s off-ball defense was on most collegiate scouting reports, but plays like this were a regular occurrence for Arizona this season.

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Offensively, Green’s skillset is much more a work in progress, and I understand why many draft experts and armchair scouts aren’t going to be as high on him as I am. Even if you buy into him as a possible starter-level player due to his defensive abilities, in order to justify high-end minutes, he needs to become more of an offensive threat and learn to take what the other team gives him.

To start, Green was an excellent transition player in college with one glaring weakness. His speed, athleticism, and length make him a terror on the break, and given his instincts as a ball-hawk, he could be a real weapon for a fast-paced team that thrives on generating offense off of live-ball takeaways. His handle really (really, really) needs to tighten up, but Synergy marks him in the 79th percentile for transition success. A smart NBA team can never have enough dudes who can move like this in a fast offense.

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That said, to be the 3-and-D guy he needs to be, Green will have to become much more confident in his shooting ability. His numbers are promising, albeit on lower volume than you’d like for a wing; 36% from deep on 83 attempts, and 78% from the line. The most inconsistent part of his shooting mechanics is his stance – sometimes it looks fine (if stiff), but other times he bends his knees so damn inward that it looks borderline painful. It should also be noted that that 36% clip was helped significantly by a TON of open looks; he shot a whopping 40% on catch-and-shoot shots (85th percentile), but nearly 2/3 of those shots were considered unguarded, according to Synergy. Still, his success at the line, off the catch, and occasional flash plays off of movement indicate that the shooting mechanics are there.

The most concerning aspect of Green’s shooting ability is that his shot is actually better than his instincts to take shots, even when he’s wide open. His confidence in his shot waned significantly across the season, and he was apt to either hand the ball back over to teammates or settle for a drive instead of taking good looks from deep. He plays the part of a floor spacer well, and moves to the right spots to either get himself open looks or keep defenders honest – but he doesn’t have the shooting instinct to be a high volume sniper.

Green’s reticence as a shooter could be forgiven if he was a strong driver and finisher, but he’s not; he finished at the 8th (!) percentile on shots around the basket in the half-court. This is primarily due to a weakness familiar to Kings fans – he’s EXTREMELY right hand dominant, the anti-Marvin Bagley. He can produce some high-touch layups, as long as the shot doesn’t require him to shift the ball to his left€¦ but he misses a large number of attempts, or lets defenders back into the picture, due to this serious mental block.

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Green’s struggles at the rim outside of transition are are huge reason why his true shooting percentage is so poor – a whopping 52.8%, poor for a lower-usage player. Unless Green improves his touch at the rim and tightens up the handle to get him there, he’ll be relying on off-ball cuts and catch-and-shoot 3s to get any baskets; he needs extensive work, or he’ll be liability on offense once teams can chase him off the line.

There is one part of Green’s game I believe is severely underrated – his passing instincts. He averaged 3.4 assists per 40 (16% assist rate) and had a 1.6/1 assist to turnover ratio, both fine numbers considering his 20% usage rate. He’s such a fun and confident passer that it’s almost infuriating that that confidence hasn’t carried over to his shooting. He loves to drive into the teeth of the defense and whip heated passes to his teammates. He shouldn’t be expected to be a primary or secondary initiator, but any team that needs more willing passers should love to have a guy with Green’s eagerness to find his teammates.

Green is the type of collegiate player that I find myself €œdraft crushing€ on every year – a versatile wing who competes and thrives at defense  while flashing an underdeveloped offensive game. In the past, this adoration has made me rightfully excited for guys like Jonathan Isaac, OG Anunoby, and Mikal Bridges. To be clear, Josh Green is not the same tier of prospect as these guys, but he does share their same defensive motor, and that’s something the Kings desperately need.

That isn’t to say the Kings can afford to dismiss Green’s lower skill level on offense when evaluating him. I’d be a hypocrite to label Jaden McDaniels as a €œproject player€ that the Kings should pass on, and then claim Green’s weaknesses are easy fixes by a Kings team with a questionable developmental track record. But in the absence of trust in the team, trust in the player will have to do; Green plays hard every moment he is on the court, and clearly understands what he needs to improve on offensively (check out his excellent film session with Mike Schmitz). What Green is good at now is what the Kings need help with now, and unlike McDaniels and some other presumed youngsters in the Kings draft range, he’s not a complex fit on either end of the court.

With his combination of tools, motor, on-ball instincts, and help-defense awareness, Green could be an exceptional defender who can guard primary wings and small forwards. Combined with his transition offense, his promising shooting touch, and his under-heralded playmaking ability, I think Green has a chance to be an strong role player. Will he be the best player available at pick 12 or 13? Probably not. Is he a better fit for the team than Saddiq Bey or Aaron Nesmith? It’s arguable at best. But compared to his piers, I think Green has one of the higher defense floors and higher defensive ceilings – and that might be enough to justify taking him early.

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Having covered two Pac-12 prospects in the last few weeks – McDaniels and now Green – I’ve spent a lot of time with the ESPN Pac-12 announcing crew of Bill Walton and Dave Pasch. I’ve never been a huge fan of this duo, because while they’re both extremely intelligent about the game they call, Walton’s chaotic announcing style morphs into aggressive, brotherly antagonistic chaos when he’s paired with Pasch, and their verbal hijinks and tiffs can make the game they’re calling a secondary concern. That said, the sheer insanity of the Walton quotes that came out of just the clips I’ve pulled for my last two pieces is impossible to ignore:

• Walton starts a Washington/Arizona game by howling, excitedly remembers that Arizona had an epic collapse in their previous game (which he had called), and aggressively asks Pasch why he hadn’t been there, forgetting that that game hadn’t been on ESPN.
• €œI don’t even have any hair! How can they get dandruff? I think it’s just flakey skin.€
• €œThe dog wouldn’t even kiss me€¦ that’s how bad it was.€
• €œThat’s all we do, man€¦ is sit here.€
• €œWhen Nico Mannion and Josh Green just play freely and flowing, like the waterfall! That’s when they’re at their best! When they’re like the rainbows! When they’re like an exploding volcano!€
• €œWhy would you kill a boy for eating peanut butter?…€
• €œI am the YOU are the ostrich!€