When you sign a 4-year, $85 million contract there are certain expectations that come with it. We’ve spent countless hours discussing Buddy Hield’s big contract extension, and what he can do this season to live up to it after a disappointing 2019-20 campaign, but his teammate Harrison Barnes is in the exact same boat, he’s just done a considerably better job flying under the radar.
Hield has been loud, outspoken, and unhappy in his struggles, so it’s no surprise that his hopeful return to form this season has sparked more debate. Barnes, on the other hand, has remained professional, and he’s accomplished a ton in the community during his short time in Sacramento, so the natural pass he receives for the on-court decline we saw last season is understood – I certainly get it. But on the basketball court, the Kings are going to need more efficient contributions from Barnes if he’s going to live up (or come close) to what Vlade Divac paid to keep him here.
Harrison Barnes only played 28 games with the Kings in 2018-19 after he was traded to Sacramento from Dallas for Justin Jackson and Zach Randolph, but his half-season with the Kings was highly efficient. Barnes’ 54.7 eFG% was good for 75th percentile among NBA forwards, and his .408 3P% with Sacramento was near elite for his position.
Barnes wasn’t terrible for the Kings last season, but when you’re a highly paid role player the line between positive and negative is pretty thin. Glenn Robinson III, for example, had an equally efficient and productive season in 2019-20 at 1/20th of the cost, so if you’re going to pay someone like Barnes roughly $20 million per year, you really have to be elite in that role, and Harrison wasn’t.
In 2019-20 Barnes’ efficiency took a not-insignificant dip, and what sticks out in my mind was how invisible he was when the Kings needed him most. I’m referring to the 17 games the Kings played without De’Aaron Fox from mid-November to mid-December here. Without Fox, when more responsibility falls on your highly-paid ancillary players, Barnes didn’t deliver. In 17 games without Fox, Barnes scored 16.2 points in 36.3 minutes per game, but beyond the raw counting numbers his efficiency plummeted thanks to a brutal stretch from beyond the arc where he shot just .339 from three.
Barnes is supposed to fill something of a 3-and-D veteran leadership role for the Kings, and in 2019-20 both the three and the defense just weren’t there consistently. Defensive impact is hard to quantify, and Barnes has never graded highly in defensive counting stats. He’s been near the bottom of the league in block% and steal% for his entire career, but his extremely low foul rate (1.3%, 100th percentile) makes up for the lack of turnover generation to some degree. Where Barnes has excelled defensively is in on/off metrics that prove, to the extent that they can prove anything, Barnes has a positive impact on team defense when he’s on the court.
That wasn’t the case in 2019-20, however. With Barnes on the court, opposing teams scored +0.8 points per 100 possessions (45th percentile) and shot +0.1% in eFG%. Those numbers aren’t awful, but if you compare them to his numbers in 2018-19 with the Kings where opposing teams shot -3.3 points per 100 possessions with him on the court (81st percentile) and -3.9% eFG% (96th percentile) there appears to be a sharp decline in defensive impact. Barnes went from a positive defender to a neutral / no impact defender.
Instead of hoping Harrison Barnes will develop new tricks 8 years into his career, it’s probably more productive to focus on what he’s done in the past and what he can do moving forward. If Barnes can return to form as both a defender and volume shooter, his contract becomes a lot more palatable.
Despite a significant decline in shooting efficiency when Fox was out of the lineup, Barnes shot a respectable .381 from three last season. You’d like to see that creep up into the 40% range like it was coming off his contract year when the Kings re-signed him, but minor dips in 3P% can happen to any good shooter.
What I found more frustrating about Barnes’ shooting in 2019-20 was a significant decrease in volume. Barnes shot just 3.7 3PA per game last season, his lowest attempt average since 2016-17 despite playing the most minutes per game since 2016-17. He shot just as many 3’s per game as De’Aaron Fox despite being significantly more efficient as a shooter. This is arguably his biggest strength offensively, and we simply need to see more of it.
In 2018-19 over his tenure in both Dallas and Sacramento, Barnes shot 5.7 3PA on .395 3P%. That’s the Harrison Barnes the Sacramento Kings need.
Can the Kings get more out of Harrison Barnes? That remains to be seen, but it’s fair to expect more than what we got last season. Peak Barnes is a high volume 3-and-D player with real positional versatility between the 3 and 4. He may never live up to his contract, but he can get much closer with a return to form as both a smart team defender and a high volume, high efficiency 3-point shooter.
With Bogdan Bogdanovic out of the equation, more shots, specifically 3-point shots, should open up for Harrison Barnes. He’s perfectly capable of making the most of this newfound opportunity, and it would be a big win for the Kings if he does.
I’m curious about what trade value Barnes has around the league. We frequently talk about trading off our veteran guys for assets, but I’m skeptical if any contending team would give assets to get Barnes, even with a slight return to form.
Of course, if the one veteran we hang on to throughout the rebuild is Barnes, I won’t be devastated. He seems like a solid citizen, a hard worker, and a good influence on the young guys, plus hasn’t been vocal about wanting to play on a contender / ceding minutes to younger players.
The one thing that gives me hope the Kings can move Barnes in a reasonable trade is contenders convincing themselves that Barnes can play 15-20 effective MPG in the playoffs. To be honest, if I’m a GM on a contending team, I’d probably prefer Barnes over Buddy since Buddy’s defense is so bad you can’t even trust him at the end of regular season games.
As tax heavey as it would be for them Boston could use Barnes or Buddy. They could also fit them into their new TPE. Hell, Boston could fit Barnes AND Holmes into that TPE. It think it all comes down to how deep Boston feels they can make a run into the playoffs.
Give me Aaron Nesmith and a future first for either Buddy or Barnes and Holmes.
I would do this in a second, but doubt Boston would. That being said, if they see a window to get to the finals this season, and Nesmith doesn’t look like he can contribute, I could squint and understand the logic. Just doesn’t seem like an Ainge move.
Yeah Ainge has historically loved draft picks and young players. He has not really thrown down his chips in any aggressive way. Kemba Walker having knee issues is a real concern and I think any trades are put on hold until they see what they can get out of him this season. Boston would need to be in a serious contender race (top 3 in the east come trade deadline) to really make any serious deals at the trade deadline.
I’d imagine Ainge is going to do something with that massive TPE. He might just sit on it as Kemba insurance if his injury is legit bad. They are another quai-star away from being a serious threat in the East. Buddy does make quite a bit of sense for them and helps spread the floor for Kemba and Tatum. A Kemba, Buddy, Brown, Tatum starting 4 could be one of the best in the league.
That lineup is pretty crazy and fits well. I have two friends from Boston that run a celtics podcast. I reached out to them to see if they like it from the Celtics perspective. Waiting to hear from them and I can post their thoughts on here.
I think Buddy makes much more sense for them as well, especially considering they’ll likely be playing a lot of games without Kemba. It becomes a lot more palatable to start Marcus Smart at the one if you have Buddy’s shooting next to him at the two, plus Brown and Smart can guard the best two perimeter opponents and give Buddy the weakest.
My primary concern with Barnes’ contract is that there is not a team in the NBA that he’d be the best player in any particular facet. He wouldn’t be the best playmaker, defender, shooter, scorer, etc. on Boston, so why would they want to tie up $20 million a season in him? Buddy, even with his weaknesses in mind, would be the best shooter on 95% of the rosters he finds himself on; that’s valuable, even if he is overpaid.
After talking with the two celtics guys that run the podcast, they were for sure excited about the possibility to add Buddy. They both mentioned the contract but said they would do it because they see Nesmith’s ceiling as being able to shoot like Buddy and why not just add that talent immediately while giving up a young player who will need time to develop.
They said they know of Buddy’s defensive and turnover flaws but looked the other way because they believe Smart and Brown could cover for Buddy’s weakness.
Aaron Nesmith and a 1st? Barnes at this point probably has neutral to negative trade value and Holmes is not enough to offset it. I would take Nesmith for Buddy straight up.
I think that your final point about Bobo having moved on is an important one. With more minutes available at small forward, Barnes’ most-natural position, it may allow him to get back to his usual, solid groove. He makes a lot of money, but if he can manage his statistical career averages, while also mentoring our thousand new wings, the investment will have been worth it.
I’d argue with the idea Barnes is a more natural SF. Over the years, he’s consistently played his most effective minutes at PF.
He’s literally known for being the PF in a 5-man lineup that was so good they nicknamed it The Death Lineup.
And given that the other members of the roster are basically the ’16-’17 Warriors, that is an excellent point you’ve made.
I mean, why not play Barnes at the four when any two of Bagley, Whiteside, Holmes or Bjelica are in? Any of those guys could guard athletic wings in their sleep.
What his most natural position is and how he fits best into various rotations given the Kings present roster are two different questions.
Harrison is Sactown’s finest Barnes.
He seems like a good veteran to keep around if mentoring means anything. Probably a good role model as any for our exciting young group of rookies.
He also has a great smile.
And he’s the only Harry we have left.
No complaints. his 3 point percentage was good. Sometimes he posted up. And he didn’t try to be a high volume shooter. What more are you asking for? I think we know who Barnes is. His numbers will dip if there are no playmakers on the court; that’s not Barnes’ fault.
how is Barnes not partially to blame for the lack of playmaking when he’s on the court? Is he not allowed to pass the ball?
He is who he is. The problem is roster construction. Buddy, Barnes, Bagley, Joseph (and the list goes on) are all below average playmakers for their position. It’s not a winning formula. Barnes was not a ball hog.
Well you pondered what more can we ask for from a player making ~$20 million a year. I’d suggest you don’t pay a player that much unless he’s a playmaker, or doesn’t need a playmaker to be efficient.
I agree he’s overpaid. I’ve always thought that. What’s your logic? Harrison Barnes is paid $20 million per year. Therefore let’s see if he can be Tracy McGrady?
My logic is that Barnes isn’t worth it if he only provides mentorship, low volume shooting, and league average defense.
True, he’s overpaid. However I prefer the low volume shooting Barnes at Golden State who shoots 3’s at 40% than the high volume shooting Barnes at Dallas. If we all get angry at Barnes for not being Lebron and tell him to be KD, then we get the Barnes at Dallas and we wonder why the others aren’t getting shots.
There’s tons of stuff he can do that don’t include being the primary scorer.
My Kings text buddy is convinced that Barnes is a ball-stopper when it comes to passing, but that seems hard to quantify, especially for a mild numbers guy like me. Any of the legendary writers and/or contributors to this site able to weigh in on this?
I’m sick and tired of this franchise being ok with standing at the perimeter, watching. It goes all the way back to (((shudder))) Demarcus. Is Barnes in the way like Cousins was?
One of the better passing big men in the game, of course it’s Cousins’ fault that the offense sucked.
The team sure scored a lot of points the year he had a legit point guard, did it not?
As long as they dumped it down to him in the half court offense, yes, good passer. It’s 2020 though, teams are happy to let opponents dump it down now, see Boston and Miami vs Philly.
He stood in the way of modernizing, no question about it.
So, his 3ptFG% his last two seasons here went .333 to .361, which speaks to his burgeoning utility as a stretch 5. Are you saying that his passing skills went away when he moved out to the arc? Those two seasons his assists per game are 3.3 and 4.6.
I understand that Cousins is polarizing, but the fact that the game has changed a bit doesn’t take anything away from what he did when he was here. If anything, his numbers the final two seasons indicate that he was adding exactly the kinds of skills necessary to “modernizing” his game.
Dude, he’s not going to make it down the court in time. I don’t know what to tell you.
I agree at the least Barnes is a keeper vet for the young guys. He has a ring and has played for 2 well run franchises, and the young guys may need that understanding (hopefully we are a well run franchise soon). In Barnes defense we bought a company man, and we won’t see him saying the coach is holding him back. But is Luke using him in his best role?
First point, Barnes is probably on a short list of worst NBA contracts. Not Tobias Harris or John Wall or Kevin Love or Gordon Hayward bad, but bad (better than Eric Gordon, but in that range).
Second point, Barnes is at least a veteran presence that is a legit core rotation player. It’s always easier to lead when you’re farther up the ladder, and Barnes rates substantially higher as a player than past locker room leaders such as Garrett Temple, Iman Shumpert and Kent Bazemore. And a solid, solid community guy. None of this justifies the contract, but it does positively reduce the overpay by a buck or two.
Third point, if Woodard became the player that Barnes already is, there would be some serious dancing in the streets. The issue with Barnes is less about him as a player and more about his value to contract. If Barnes were making $8m-$10m a year, there would be no real issues…and Bogdan Bogdanovic might still be a King.
Fourth point, his contract gets smaller as the years go on ($22m, $20m, $18m), so it may be easier to trade him down the road. But short of taking back some non-expiring, quasi-dead contract, I have a hard time seeing the Kings finding a positive deal for Barnes this season.
Final point, Barnes is neither cause nor cure for what ails the Kings on the court, and he is a big positive in the community. But it is the cap sheet where he has the negative impact, and that is likely to continue for another year or so.
Agreed on all points. But at the end of the day Barnes is not to blame for our FO giving him that contract. Just like he’s not to blame for how our coach uses him on the court.
I can ask you for the moon but if you give it to me it’s not my fault.
Yep – I don’t think that any of us would have turned down that money.
Do the Kings want to get more out of Harrison Barnes? Only if they’re planning on trading him, I would assume. Otherwise, Operation Tank ’21 could run off track.
I think I’m on board with my first tank, ONLY because I believe its our best shot to see the coach replaced the quickest. And it still makes me feel slimy. But hey: draft pick.
Ugh, I suck at rooting for failure, but I’ve rooted for success so long. And watch it backfire, we win 50 games and the coach (I can’t even type derivatives of his name today) ends up getting a 4 yr. extension. F@*******!!!!!!
I’m not sure I’m cut out for this…lol
I feel ya, but Lose Walton’s (derivative!) contract hasn’t been extended at all.
Dammit. His name is “Lose Often”. Lose Walton is not what they are saying. I thought his name was Lose Alton…go figure????
I want McNair to fire Walton just so everyone stops with the nicknames.
Agreed. Until then…Lose Often.
Barnes is Barnes is Barnes.
He’s a nice player to have on a value deal. He isn’t going to lose you games. He isn’t going to win you games. He’s good in the locker room, so that’s nice, but not really worth paying well over production for.
Basically a guy you don’t want to overpay and are always going to want to upgrade. Unfortunately, the Kings are overpaying him.
I find it funny that so many think that the Kings can get significant value for either Barnes or Hield. Both are overpaid… taking them off our hands would be a favor.
IMO, I think they are overpaid on a small market perennial lottery team like the Kings because they don’t help achieve any specific goal. If Barnes were still on the Warriors or Buddy was on the 76ers with their current deals, I think they would be viewed differently as they could be a significant difference maker to contender.
Clearly no one is lining up to get them. So it would be a favor to the small market perennial lottery team.
Clearly? Who is to know if McNair hasn’t fielded calls on either of them.
I personally think Buddy will be in very high demand.
As do I. He’s the perfect 3rd fiddle on a contending team. Imagine if Denver had him instead of Gary Harris or Philly had him instead of Danny Green.
He’s the perfect 4th fiddle. He’s a decent 3rd fiddle if the other two are the right fit.
He is a very expensive 3rd fiddle of narrow value.
Buddy and Barnes’ contracts are what they are – huge overpays due to Vlade’s inexperience. That said, stay in front of your man and box out like you make 20 mil. Get open on the arc and make your shots like you make 20 mil. And if you can’t, at least play like you give 20 million shits. Do it not, and see exhibit Whiteside. He’s sitting right there next to you. In a couple years, you’ll be on a league minimum trying to prove you still belong, too. P.S. – I’m rooting for both of you. You were both fringe All-Stars at one point. You can both make a huge difference on this team, and if you don’t want that, you can at least make a difference in your trade value.
Like a smaller contract commitment and some kind of asset?
Barnes is a good player but would be surprised if he can be traded without getting a bad contract back as part of any deal !
Nothing new to see here, just another one of Vlade’s usual fuck ups. Would’ve been a lot easier to retain Bodgan if Vlade didn’t go off handing bloated contracts to average players at every opportunity he got. Good for Barnes though, he got his money.
I don’t think any kind of meaningful rebuild can begin until we eject Barnes and his contract. He’s been an albatross on the Kings since his arrival, and in my opinion he’s really stunted any kind of growth for the Kings development. He hasn’t budged the needle, and hasn’t made any kind of impact for the Kings since that ill informed trade. In fact, the organization has moved backward, and has wasted precious time because of a trade that was supposed to push us over the top, and provide the missing link for a playoff push that ultimately fizzled out starting in Feb, 2019, and continues to this day.
I don’t think I’d go this far, but I agree that we can’t just evaluate the contract solely based on his on-court value. There was no need for a veteran wing like Barnes at the time they signed him. A good rule of thumb is don’t buy things you don’t need unless you’re getting a screaming deal.
I don’t remember seeing a lot of promising SFs the past 2 years that Barnes was impeding. That was the one position that was a glaring hole since Rudy Gay left. We had Bogi, Wenyen Gabriel, and Shumpert playing it. Usually, not well.
It’s now confirmed that Bagley has been out because of contracting coronavirus:
https://twitter.com/JandersonSacBee/status/1336797136592125952
The untradable Barnes contract is why I was ok not matching Bogi. Bogi’s was marginally better value because he’s an equally good player, maybe slightly better, and it was less money. Signing a decent role player to a big long-term deal without having the stars in place to actually be a winning team doesn’t make a lot of sense, and the contract become more of a burden than an asset. We don’t need three of those contracts. One or two is manageable.
Here’s to hoping that some of the guys on the roster with upside (Fox, Bagley, Halliburton) develop into legit stars that Barnes can be a 4th or 5th best starter next to.
I’d be satisfied with consistent 16/10 nights rather than 25/12 followed by 8/4. No doubt he’s a great guy, teammate and overall citizen. I hope the Kings keep him.
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